Note: Myths 5 – 10 were taken from a post by a so-called prepper expert providing advice while dispelling “myths” about prepping and bugging out. I thought the advice to be so outrageously idiotic and dangerous that I felt the need to respond to this guy before he gets people killed.
Their Myth Reasoning – This is probably the biggest of the myths; that there are many reasons that you’ll have to bug out. The truth is that for the vast majority of scenarios, you will be safer, more secure, and more comfortable by battening down and staying home. Home is where your family feels the safest. It is where you have a routine and familiar surroundings. In dire times, those two things go a long way to uphold our mental well-being. Home is also where all of your preparations are and where you’re best suited to face the most “come, what may” scenarios.
My Opinion – I kinda agree, but there is some flawed logic they are using here. There are actually many reasons that you might have to “bug-out” depending on the scenario being discussed. The primary determining factor is your home’s location relative to the scenario playing out. “Routine”, “feels the safest” or “familiar surroundings” don’t play into the decision to stay or leave. No, not at all. It is a matter of risk mitigation. You ask the question, “Does staying in my home increase or decrease the probability and severity of the threat that is being presented?” That’s it, it’s that simple. You don’t go off of feelings and emotions; that will get your family in a spot that could be very unhealthy.
If you don’t understand threats, risks and mitigation then you need to read <Threats, Risk, Matrix, Mitigation : Part 1>. Threats boil down to two things, and only two things; the probability that an event will occur and if it does occur what is the severity of impact to your family. Once that is established then you weigh it against what you can do to reduce the probability and severity to a level that you feel you can adequately deal with the situation. Until then, you are making decisions by simple guesswork or worse yet, going off of emotions.
Now, I do agree that in many emergencies and disasters a “shelter-in-place” decision makes sense. But what you have to have ready is a Plan B, Plan C, etc. <read more> You have in place options and alternatives to move your family to another location for safety purposes. And trying to come up with those plans on the fly, under pressure, is not a good idea. Read this for more info <SURVIVING ANY DISASTER: Part 4>.
What I would suggest is a solid plan in advanced on what scenarios you are comfortable with sheltering in place, and what scenarios you feel warrants bugging out. And most importantly – where.