Prepper Myth #7: You Don’t Need a Bug Out Plan

Note: Myths 5 – 10 were taken from a post by a so-called prepper expert providing advice while dispelling “myths” about prepping and bugging out. I thought the advice to be so outrageously idiotic and dangerous that I felt the need to respond to this guy before he gets people killed.

Failure to plan for bugging out will result in failure, injury and probably death.  Bugout buginTheir Myth Reasoning – This is the other camp that says they won’t ever bug out and don’t need a bug out plan.  As I mentioned above, in the vast majority of scenarios, staying home or “bugging in” is a better solution. To me, this means that the events you do need to bug out for are much more serious. Events that could push me from my home are things like imminent fire, flooding, a prolonged grid down or civil unrest in an urban and some suburban areas. When do you know you should bug out? When you would be safer leaving than staying. The events I described could be extremely dangerous, so not having a plan to put in action, having BOB’s and a plan for bugging out, is equally as dangerous.

My Opinion –  Once again, I kind of agree but the logic, reasoning and advice falls short. The writer talks about some events that would push him from his home. But he gives no rationale behind his decision. Nor, does he give you any advice on how to apply it to your situation. His advice is “When you would be safer leaving than staying.” What? How is that for sound reasoning? What do you base the answer on? Do you wait until some magical answer appears to you?

PLan for bugging out and bugging in. failure to plan will bring failure and that means death or injury to you and your family.I say, make these decisions ahead of time. Identify the events, situations, or scenarios that would drive to bug-out. Set trigger points and steps to take at each trigger point so when you are in a full-on panic mode. So when you are at the most crucial decision point your level-headed decisions are already made for you. It is called “planning.” And those of us that have worked in high-stress, emergency, disaster, and stressful lines of work know that the worst possible time to do planning and making complex decisions is when the pressure is at its highest. Read what I have to say about “Fight or Flight” here <SURVIVING ANY DISASTER: Part 7– Making Decisions>.

Go through a threat and risk assessment of those events that you have decided will likely affect your family. <read more> Then work through the “probability and severity” aspect of each threat. Then based on that you can design a plan to mitigate the threats and risks in logical and reasonable approach. You can take it one step at a time addressing the most urgent threat first.

So, yes, I agree with the writer on having a plan. But I feel his logic, reasoning and advice is flawed to the point it could jeopardize the safety of you and your family.

One thought on “Prepper Myth #7: You Don’t Need a Bug Out Plan

  1. Whilst having an evacuation plan (and a couple of alternatives) is a good idea, I kinda agree with the original author when he said “When you would be safer leaving than staying.”

    Only difference between his and mine is I’ve also said, “When there is no other choice but to leave”.

    Most situations are cut and dried.
    Flood, fire, landslip danger, or the like are simple. You BUG OUT if it’s quantifiable and life threatening.

    Only hows about a nearby factory is on fire and churning out toxic fumes (But not in your direction)?
    BUG OUT Yes or No. Bit more complex now isn’t it. (see “Bugging out too early” later on)

    Take a financial crisis. What does that mean exactly?
    Most will be thinking the banks close, no money, no way to buy supplies. Instant panic? Really!
    What if they HAD TO CLOSE whilst sorting out a computer virus, a short term one day fix type problem.

    After all the radio / media will love it probably reporting MASS PANIC AS BANKS STAY SHUT!

    Consider that a lot of people carry zip in the way of folding stuff and rely on plastic thus the situation in shops could get out of hand quickly. Yet what if it was only card payments that failed but shops were still taking cash? One of those “minor” little things the media ‘may forget’ to mention.

    Now you’ll find out who lives on credit and who has real folding money.
    As a lot of people are permanently in the credit card trap, those people may be in full panic mode.
    They’ll be unhappy and probably throwing their toys around but is that the time to BUG OUT yes or no?

    Ultimately that’s going to be a judgment call as the facts aren’t simple.
    How would you quantify all that decision making in a written document?
    The IF and BUT decision making could stretch on for ever!

    My old prepper decision making book had over a thousand go/no go scenarios written in it but most of those had (IF NECESSARY) written after them.

    Thankfully I’ve scrapped that now and depend on the single line “When there is no other choice but to leave”. Every situation is thus a judgment call, fluid in assessment and moderated by the current situation.

    Bugging out too early.
    Consider this though.
    What if you got it wrong and your book says BUG OUT NOW and so you do!

    Only within the day the problem / crisis was solved.
    Some people may have walked out of their jobs to bug out and return to a very unhappy boss and no job.
    Whoops, now you really are in a crisis aren’t you!

    How’s about you’re seen loading everything up and running for the hills.
    Later that night you sheepishly return home.
    Only it’s been stripped as everyone thought you were never coming back!

    Argh, that’s crisis two, self generated, all because you had a fixed trigger point you rigidly adhered to.

    Like

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