There are so few people connecting the dots, and we’ve been caught off-guard before. I don’t want that to happen again. I want you fully aware, according to my opinion, to act as you are prompted to. So here goes…
Yesterday I watched an interview on CNBC with Dr. John Rutledge. He manages Rutledge Capital Management and is an international adviser to other invest and private equity houses. Well respected and knowledgeable, especially on China. Here are the bullet points that I got from the interview:
- Relative to the economy, the interest rates are high, and that included the FedRate. That means the economy is very weak right now and the Fed has few options to respond with a “fix.”
- Small & medium sized businesses and most consumers are not able to borrow because of banks’ requirements. When they can find a place to borrow money, it is expensive. That suppresses growth for the majority of business and consumers.
- There are two separate economies right now; 1) Wall Street is booming, 2) Main Street is suffering and is very weak.
- The Federal Reserve is a failure at their mission; creating jobs and keeping interest rates favorable. The size of their balance sheet is out of whack and dangerously high.
- Our economy, at the hands of the Fed, is suffering and will continue to do so because of Dodd-Frank and the Fed’s huge balance sheet. Inflation is coming.
- China is weak and suffering but will continue to grow modestly. Their data is suspect and no way to really trust it.
- China, US and other countries have printed massive amounts of money (QE) and will continue to do so. No other option.
- China is not nearly as important as it once was.
- Obama is hurting our economy and our businesses.
- Governments world-wide will continue massive borrowing. The small & medium businesses and most consumers will have a hard time accessing money to borrow.
- Rutledge is fully invested in the stock market, he was “defensive” is cash a few weeks ago. He sees that the market will go up.
For years we’ve heard that it takes 100,000 – 150,000 new jobs in the US every month to keep up with the birth rate and immigration influx. According to the Economic Populist’s study, we need closer to 300,000 – 400,000. And why is new job growth important at all?
Regardless of that number to keep up with births and immigration, we have to compare it to the BLS (US Govt) figures that are thrown around. For September 2015 BLS says job growth was 142,000 and everyone was thrilled about it. Well, at least the media, liberals, Progressives and the government were.
But let’s look seriously at it…if it takes even suspect numbers of 100,000 – 150,000 new jobs just to keep even, that means we really didn’t add any jobs to speak of. If we go with the more accurate numbers (EP) we actually fell behind in job growth.
Since 2012 2% of the civilian population has left the labor force. That is 3.1million people who simply gave up looking for work because they couldn’t find a job for years. That translates to an average of 64,435 people per month who stop looking for work.
Now you understand why “unemployment” is going down so quickly. Because when you stop looking for work, the US government no longer calculates you as “unemployed.” But worse yet, it actually shows that we are not gaining enough jobs each month to keep people employed.
So, just to stay even with a ZERO job growth in the US we need well over 200,000 new jobs per month…every single month.
But, it is worse than that…
Last month the US government said the first time (initial) unemployment claims was 263,000. So, we had 263,000 people file for unemployment for the month of September (2015); and there were only 142,000 new jobs created. That is a net loss of jobs of 121,000 jobs (jobs created vs. jobs lost).
Now, you add that net job loss to the number of jobs needed, to the number of jobs just to stay at zero job growth, and you now have a true number of job growth needed. Let me break it down…
Number of jobs needed due to births & immigration: 125,000 (approximate estimate)
Number of jobs needed to prevent workforce loss: 64,435
Number of jobs needed to replace jobs lost (unemployment claims): 263,000
To balance out for last month we would need to create 452,435 jobs in October.
But that would still leave us losing the 64,435 people involuntarily leaving the workforce on average each month. To make up for September and to stay even for October we would need to create 516,870 jobs in October.
And, don’t you find it interesting that no one in the government will breakdown the numbers like that to us?
In the last couple of weeks Russia military has done the following:
- Entered Syria and begun supporting the Assad regime with their military against the rebels that the United States is supporting.
- Warned the US to stay out of its operational air space.
- Multiple intercepts of US drones while the drones were conducting operations in Syria.
- Challenged Turkey’s air space. Turkey is a key NATO ally.
- Ignored repeated attempts by high-ranking US government officials to discuss the situation in Syria.
On the diplomatic front, the US has widely condemned Russia air strikes in Syria. While Russia has warned the US to not interfere with Russian military operations.
You have two archenemies (Russia & USA) operating in the same theater of war, but not on the same sides and not talking to each other.
In the last 10 days we’ve had two college shootings that have gained widespread national media attention. The liberals/Progressives have reacted accordingly by calling for everything from gun control to gun banning; throwing in mental health issues as well. While we’ve seen this before after previous shootings, something sounds a bit different this time. Add to that a general “anti-gun feeling” in the country by the mass numbers of sheep that something has to be done.
The media and the sheep are ignoring a couple things to put into this equation…1) all of these shootings are taking place in “gun-free” zones, 2) all of these shootings are taking place in liberal states, 3) all of these shootings are taking place where none of their proposals would have made any influence on their outcome (other than an outright gun ban), 4) the shootings are now specifically targeting Christians.
And to top it all off, the most divisive president in the history of the US, the most failed US president in US history, is threatening anti-gun Executive Orders. The EOs by-pass Congress and the Constitutional process.
In the history of the world when a government begins to have overwhelming domestic problems leaders of those countries take drastic actions to overcome domestic unrest. And they do it in one of two ways, sometimes both:
- They create an “external threat” to their country and go to war to defeat that so-called threat.
- They ruthlessly and violently suppress their own nation’s population.
In the history of the world when major countries are suffering serious economical problems they react in only one way…they go to war.
In today’s world we see country after country in dire economic straits. These poor world-wide economic times include the US and Russia, as well as a long list of other major and second-tier countries.
We have a US president that is an utter failure and desperately wants to create some kind of legacy to be remembered by. With that going on his political party is complete meltdown and ready to place a socialist on the presidential ballot. You have a Republican party whose past and present leadership was and is complicit in all the radical liberal/Progressive agenda of a Marxist president. And that same Republican party just had a coup inside their own party of liberals/Progressives vs. conservatives. But, it left the Republican Congress leaderless. Then, a US stock market is only staying afloat due only to the trillions of dollars that the government has pumped into it.
Let us not forget, you have an unprecedented persecution of Christians in the US taking place, to the point of Christians being murdered because of their faith. You have the virtual elimination of Christians in the Middle East due to a growing Muslim purge of Christians. Christians are regularly being raped, beheaded, murdered and crucified by a wave of Islamic horror.
You have a Russian president that is trying to rebuild the Soviet Empire. And he is as ruthless a leader as they come.
You have China whose economy is “struggling” at best with more than a 1,000,000,000 (1 billion) people who are repressed and not happy with their economy. The Chinese stock market is only staying alive due to the billions of dollars being pumped into it by the Chinese government.
You have a virtual invasion of Europe and the United States by 100’s of thousands of radical Muslims pouring out of the Middle East into Western civilized countries.
The list could go on and on as you well know. But, the key question to ask, “What is the outcome going to be?”
I am not talking about some years-away events, decisions, or measures. I am talking about what will (or can) happen tomorrow. What about today? And next week? Next month?
“What will happen?” is a valid and critical question to ask.
But it is not the most important, it is not the most critical.
“What are you planning to do about it today, next week, next month?”
There is the highest priority question that you need to ask yourself and your family.
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