• Q: When and why do you think the US will fall into revolution?

Dang…nothing like a softball question, eh?

On a serious note…your question is loaded and that is probably why you asked it…it is worrying you. As it should. Now, there are two parts to this in my answer to you. What my opinion is based on what I am seeing…and…several factors that are already in-place and may be realistically moving us in that direction as you read this.

First off, by “revolution” I mean a serious rupture in normal political order, mass refusal of authority, sustained increasingly violent civil disorder, organized resistance, or competing claims to legitimate government. I am not talking about simply protests, even violent demonstrations, or an election swing…even a heated one. Meaning…a serious problem not a slogan.

Second…we have to define the time-frame. World events and national events change…sometimes daily, if not hourly. So I am setting the time-frame as “right-now, today.”

So here is my list:

1. Enough People Stop Believing in the System

2. A Constitutional Crisis

3. People Can’t Afford Their Lives Anymore (become desperate)

4. We Stop Seeing the Other Side as Americans

5. Some triggering event…expected or unexpected (Black Swan)

Those are not necessarily in priority order…but there is no reason why they can’t be given the current state of affairs.

And, it could be looked at as a progression as well…we don’t trust it → it breaks → we’re hurting → we turn on each other → something lights the fuse.

Now, if you want a bit of my reasoning behind each for context…

1. Enough People Stop Believing in the System

This one is the most basic and already exists to a degree. The US government can survive a lot of anger, but it can’t survive it forever if people increasingly decide the system no longer works…or no longer works for them.

We’re already seeing some pretty serious warning signs. Confidence in 14 major American institutions averages just 27%, according to Gallup. Trust in the federal government is worse…Pew puts it at roughly one American in five.

That doesn’t mean 80% of Americans are ready to grab a pitchfork or burn anyone at the stake. But it does mean an awful lot of people don’t have much faith in the institutions that are supposed to settle our differences. % of US citizens who have confidence in the 14 institutions:

• The presidency — 27%
• Congress — 9%
• The U.S. Supreme Court — 27%
• The military — 61%
• The police — 45%
• The criminal justice system — 17%
• The public schools — 27%
• Banks — 28%
• Big business — 17%
• Organized labor — 26%
• The medical system — 28%
• Newspapers — 17%
• Television news — 14%
• The church/organized religion — 33%

Not good…and getting worse every year by the looks of it.

2. A Constitutional Crisis

This would be different from simply not trusting Washington. Suppose an election result isn’t accepted. Or, a president refuses a court order. A governor tells the federal government to pound sand. Federal and state authorities issue conflicting orders and both claim the Constitution is on their side.

Then what?

That’s where things could get ugly (and have gotten ugly), because eventually ordinary people and police, National Guard units, government employees and others would have to decide whose side they are on.

We’re not entirely there now. But 54% of Americans already expect our system of government to get worse, and 66% expect political divisions to increase. That’s not exactly a ringing vote of confidence in our ability to work things out.

3. People Can’t Afford Their Lives Anymore

This is the one that has me the most concerned in all reality. Poor economies don’t automatically cause revolutions. If they did, history would contain a whole lot more revolutions.

The real danger comes when people are hurting financially and believe the system is rigged against them or simply doesn’t give a damn. That’s where some of today’s numbers get interesting. In Pew’s April 2026 survey, 73% called health-care affordability a very big problem. Inflation was 66%. The federal deficit was 64%. And 74% said the role of money in politics was a very big problem.

Those aren’t all economic problems, of course. But put them together and you begin to see something deeper than people complaining about the price of eggs or hamburger. It’s the feeling that something isn’t working. And it’s not working…just most people don’t realize yet just how badly it isn’t working.

4. We Stop Seeing the Other Side as Americans

I could change that up a bit in another way…We see the other side as only evil trying to destroy “our” America. Sound familiar?

Americans have disagreed bitterly before…that’s nothing new. We even had a Civil War over it 165 years ago.

The problem comes when disagreement turns into something else…when the guy across the political fence isn’t merely wrong anymore. He’s evil…he’s dangerous…he’s the enemy. And because he’s the enemy, the normal rules or laws don’t necessarily apply to what happens to him. How we overcome / defeat his evil.

We’re seeing some of that now actually…sometimes daily.

Pew’s research on political violence found an increase in political polarization, inflammatory rhetoric, unwillingness to understand the other side and increasing acceptance of violence as acceptable.

You don’t need everybody thinking that way…you just need enough people on both sides who do. And you have a real problem on your hands. And we are seeing that now.

5. Some triggering event…expected or unexpected (Black Swan)

This is a weird one…kinda my “catch all” category…my “I can’t be wrong” collection…kinda like my fallback “I told you so!” position.

Maybe we see it coming. Maybe we don’t. It could be a disputed election, an economic/banking/market crash, a government crackdown, a confrontation between a state and Washington, some massive abuse of surveillance technology, or an AI disaster nobody thought possible. Or it could be a genuine Black Swan…something completely out of left field.

My top picks would be Flock cameras or rogue AI operation that causes a major disruption and/or deaths. Maybe even resistance against data centers. The most dangerous of all is Palantir. Palantir provides data and AI services to the government (military, CIA, FBI, etc.)…and its AI also increasingly makes the decisions for them. Palantir was initially funded by and a partner of the CIA. You could also throw the NSA in there as well. If people truly understood what the NSA does to US citizens…it could get ugly quick.

But here’s the point: the event doesn’t have to create all the anger, distrust and division. That is already there. It just gives it somewhere to go. History is full of countries that put up with miserable conditions for years, sometimes decades. Then one event, sometimes something surprisingly small, becomes the last straw. That’s what worries me the most about America today…we are there.

Remember my article about the Boston Flock Party? If the anti-Flock movement really took hold…whoa!

Summary –

So the 5 above are the “why” in my opinion. Now, about the “when”…

It could happen any day. Right now the US is in a constant state of Chaos, Confusion, Contention, and Conflict. We are sitting on a powder keg in a lake of gasoline. One small spark is all it will take.

I feel the US is particularly vulnerable between now and the end of the year. We have the mid-term elections and that opens a window…a very ominous window. What do Republicans do in Congress between election day and the end of the year if they lose the House and Senate? And it looks assured they will lose the House and about 60/40 they lose the Senate.

Hell, what if Trump doesn’t accept the election results if the GOP loses one or both houses? Right now, Trump is the largest potential Black Swan source in the US.

And I don’t think it gets better after the new Congress is sworn in. Whoever wins it won’t be pretty…period. And it will then be the 33% of the GOP nationally against the 66% of all other US citizens.

Back to the “when”…any time…but really keep an eye open between now and the end of the year. And then add to that my substantially increased concern from February 2027 – November 2028.

One last thought…we really, really don’t want a revolution or Civil War. If we get either…TPTB will take control and reign over us. You think it’s bad now…oh boy…

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