SOLAR : My biggest mistake…by far!

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Not all goes well on the glamstead, sometimes I make mistakes…sometimes BIG mistakes. Last month was one of those BIG mistakes. I cured it last week.

Back in JanuaryI got a call from my wife. She pleasantly, and without panic, asked me why the power went out in the house.

Let me explain…I have what is called a very boring solar system. It powers the house nicely and provides us all the luxuries and stability of a relatively normal life…without a utility bill or dependence on a power company. And it is boring! Meaning…I really don’t have to pay attention to the operation of the system…it just does it thing day in and day out…no issues,, no problems. Nice. But that all changed that day…

Fortunately I was on my way home and was only about 10 mins or so away. I asked her is there was any wire burning smell in the house. No. Then I asked if she would check for smoke or fire in the utility room where the solar equipment is located. Fortunately, she knows my humor and checked. Nothing. I’m glad I didn’t tell her I wasn’t joking.

I got home, verified the power was completely out in the entire house and headed to the utility room. In there I found the inverters off, the batteries offline, the computer brain showing an “alarm”, the charge controllers off, the system shutdown, no AC power at all.

The Victron CCGX “brain” or “computer” that controls/coordinates the system had an alarm “LVD Error”. Yeah, that means the system shut down due to low voltage coming from the batteries. I checked the SOC (State of Charge) lights on the batteries and it was showing about 75% of full capacity. That is not a low voltage problem at all. It simply made no sense.

I tried to troubleshoot what the problem was…or rather what the “real” problem was. I just couldn’t figure it out at all. Remember, I built the system, programmed the inverters, programmed the CCGX, programmed the charge controllers, made all the settings myself…I know my system pretty well. But, I still couldn’t figure it out.

Back about 400 years ago while I was also a firefighter, during my days off, I programmed computers. Okay, it was back in the late 80’s till about 2001. One of the things we had to do regularly in the early days was troubleshoot computer hardware along with the software. Sometimes with the computers themselves the only thing we could do to get it back up and running was the “BRB”…Big Red Button. On the early desktop computers there was a big red lever on the side of the case…the on/off button. Turn the computer off, wait a minute, turn the computer back on…problem solved, issue fixed…back up and running. Almost always worked for hardware problems.

Yup, I decided to shut down the entire system and restart it. Fortunately for me I’ve done it countless times and was no big deal…just think it through step-by-step. About 5 minutes later the system was up and running just fine, power to the house…and me left confused at what might have happened. The only thing I could figure out was some kind of “hiccup” occurred between the master battery computer management system (BMS) and the CCGX (the solar system computer/controller). And the system shut itself down to protect itself. Obviously since it came right back up without an issue, it had to be some false alarm/issue.

But…it exposed a much larger problem!!!

What if I had been out of town, or a couple of hours away? What if my wife hadn’t been able to get a hold of me? What if…

Yeah, even if my wife had gotten me on the phone but a couple hours away…could I have talked her through a system shutdown and restart? Maybe…but it would have been ugly trying to get her through each step in correct order to shut it down…then trying to get her through each step in correct order to do a restart.

Then my mind drifted to a couple other issues…using the generator with the system…and what about when eventually/if we sell the place. Yup, my OCD kicked in.

I have a document for the solar system that describes each piece of equipment and why I use it. It has a complete wiring diagram for each part of the system as well. That document is for anyone who has to work on the system besides me…they will understand how it is wired and what each piece of equipment is for. It’s like a technical manual. But, I don’t have an actual “operations guide”. Yeah it was obvious, that had to change.

So, over the course of several days I wrote, then edited, then edited it some more until I had a pretty dang good step-by-step manual that described:

  • How to completely shutdown the system,
  • How to start-up the system from a complete shutdown status,
  • How to hook-up the generator to by-pass the solar system,
  • How to hook-up the generator to supply power to the solar system,
  • How to remove the generator and remove it from the system, and shut down generator power.

Along the way I gave pretty good descriptions of solar system’s operations, including the “why” aspect. I used copious amounts of pictures with descriptions of lights, buttons, and levers. I had my wife look it over and she felt she could do any of the operations outlined in the manual…with just the manual.

Now, anyone…my wife, other technicians, a potential buyer, or a new owner can look at the operations guide and get a pretty good idea of how to run it. Also, combine that manual with the other “technical manual” I wrote, anyone could work on the system…or at least understand the how and why it was built, and how to operate it.

I sleep better at night now.

In case you want to see what the final product looks like I have attached it as a download. If you have a solar system, especially a DIY system, you might want to think about writing something to help others run your system safely.

So why was this “no manual” my biggest mistake so far? Simple, the safe operation, or any fixes, depended solely on me; avoiding a potential disaster for my wife if I wasn’t around to resolve the issue(s). Maybe preventing something worse.

You can download my Operations Guide (PDF file) by < clicking here > It might be helpful if you want to create one of your own.

I keep the guide book right smack dab in the middle of everything. Anyone can instantly know right where it is. Ah, no…there is no “red arrow” painted on the wall and equipment pointing to the manual.

The “tabs” are different manual parts; battery manual, inverter troubleshooting pages, &charge controller troubleshooting pages.

 

 

 2009 - 2026 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved
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Glamstead Q & A : What was the #1 change you made at your place in 2025?

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  • What was the #1 change you made at your place in 2025?

That is an easy one, a very easy one. But, the #1 wouldn’t be possible without the #2. Let me explain…

The #1 change that made the most difference is us installing an 18kBTU mini-split in November. And that is an easy #1. Why? Because we’ve not had a fire in the wood stove since last spring!! Yeah, that means no hauling in firewood, no building fires, no carrying out ash, no worrying about snow or rain on the wood pile, and…SLEEPING ALL NIGHT!!!

When we are using the wood stove I would have to get up a minimum of once a night, sometimes 2 – 3 times to feed the fire. While that may not sound like a big deal to you…it is to me. I’m a light sleeper and if I wake up after about 3am – 4am it is hard, nearly impossible, for me to get back to sleep. Now I don’t feed have to feed the fire coz there isn’t one!

Another benefit is not worrying about having to cut firewood. I still will cut more firewood but it is for cleaning up the place and having a back-up source of heat. We already have about 2 years worth of firewood and will continue to add to the supply. But I don’t have to cut it.

Now, what was the #2 I referred to? The solar system. And, technically there were two different events with the solar system this year that made #1 possible. Let me explain…

Change #2 – Event #1 : I upgraded my battery bank for the solar system in February. I previously had about 600ah / 30kWh of battery storage. That storage capacity was in 3 batteries; 2 x no-name batteries (generic China) & 1 x Trophy battery. They were “open-loop” and just not performing as well as they should. I sold them off and replaced them with 8 Midnite MNPoweFlo5 batteries; 800ah / 41kWh. And I was able to go “closed-loop” with my Victron system, and the charging process was vastly improved as well as 37% more storage capacity. Net cost for the upgrade was $1,600. < click here to read about this >

Change #2 – Event #2 : I revamped my solar panels in August. The 3 arrays had “evolved” over 5 years and were nowhere near efficient in producing power for the system. So I sat back, assessed, planned, and then worked over the course of a couple weeks to completely re-do the arrays. I also had a few panels laying around not doing anything, so those got added correctly to the arrays as well. The result was far more efficient solar panel arrays and an increase of production; 5.2kw to 8.5kw…64% more power coming from the sun! < click here to read about this >

Just FYI…I have another 2700w of panels that I will be adding to the existing arrays sometime this year. Oh yeah!!! Over 11kw of solar production…SWEET!!! Living the good life.

Back to the #1 change…the mini-split is 220vAC and 1350w, very efficient but a power hog when running 24/7 on “heat” during the winter. For you numbers folks…the mini-split uses about 20kw per day. On good winter days my system produces about 30kw per day. That means the mini-split is using about 2/3 of all the power I am generating. Without the Event #2 upgrade I would not have had the power to use that mini-split. And without the increase in power storage in Event #1, I would not have had the power to run the mini-split overnight. So the two changes go hand-in-hand…without Change #2, Change #1 would not have been possible…but Change #1 was the biggest change here for me personally…made my life considerably easier and far more pleasant.

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 2009 - 2026 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved
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Q & A : Seedlings

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I got a couple of questions from my latest “glamstead” article…

< click here to read that article >

 

 

 

  • What do you use for potting soil?

I’ve used different versions. I’ve also made my own before < click here to read about it >. I also came up with a different version/recipe…basically peat moss, some rough/large sand, and perlite…then a very, very small dash of organic fertilizer. This year I am trying Miracle-Gro. I’ve used Sta-Green before as well. They’re all good, price is the big difference.

Since I am just starting a small number of seeds this year, Miracle-Gro is a good choice; Sta-Green would be a decent option as well. If I am doing a large bunch of seedlings like last year I make my own < click here >.

It is far more important how you treat the tiny little pots of soil with the seeds. I’ve learned not to overthink it and not to hover over them. I start out the potting soil damp with warm water. You shouldn’t be able to squeeze any water out of it but your hand should be wet. Then leave it be. Yeah, I’ve done the seed soaking before, it’s okay, not required. If the soil gets fairly dry I water it till its damp again. I try not to water it so much that it comes out into the drainage tray.

Yeah I know, some folks water from the bottom up, no problem, I don’t. I also don’t use a sprsy bottle to water.

I am trying something different this year as well. I use a seedling heat mat, but only during the day. I unplug it at night to mimic the outdoor environment that would be in-place if I had planted them outside in the right weather. I also only use my grow-light only during daylight hours. I also use a south facing window. And yes, I use an osculating fan to gently blow over the seedlings to strengthen them.

Lastly, I don’t up-pot them too soon. I let a good root system (not quite a ball) form and then up-pot them. I don’t go big on the first up-potting, I keep it relatively small and up-pot multiple times when the roots need it.

Oh, for tomatoes, I leave room in the pot. I only use about half the soil as normal. Then as the stem grows I gently add more soil till it’s full. I repeat that when I up-pot. Tomatoes love to put out roots from their stem…so I assist with that. For tomatoes you want as much of a root system as possible for growing great tomatoes and keeping the plant healthy. With tomatoes it is about how much water the plant can absorb and use vs how much water you put on them. I water them deep but water only once a day. That makes the roots go deep to keep the water being taken up into the plant.

  • What grow light is that?

The one I’ve been using is an old one, 180watts, 420 LEDs, and full spectrum light. Has done fine. I just set-up a new grow-light this morning. 144 LEDs, 62watts, and full spectrum, different colored LEDs.

The key is not too much light…not too little light. Remember, seedlings in the natural environment would be sprouting in spring. Lower light days with fewer sunlight hours. So you don’t want to overpower your seedlings with the artificial light from a grow-light. The best way to calculate it is with “lumens”. Look up the word if you want…but, it is basically the power/energy delivered to the plant by the grow-light.

So you want at least 2,000 lumens but keep it below 8,000 (or so) lumens. For the most part each “watt” produces about 80 lumens. So this latest grow-light I bought comes in at 4,960 lumens…just about perfect. The old grow-light was “hot” at 14,400 lumens. So the old light had to be kept further away from the plants/seedlings.

At 2,000 lumens about 8” is good. For 14,400 lumens I had it at 24”. I would never put any grow-light closer than 8” to my seedlings. So if I chart it out…

      • 80watts or lower = 12”
      • 80 – 100watts = 15”
      • 100 – 130watts = 18”
      • 130 – 180watts = 24”

But watch your seedlings and adjust as needed. Don’t grow your seedlings too fast…slow, steady, & strong. If the stems are looking too spindly then move the grow-light back a few inches. Experiment…but don’t change things every day. Make a change, give it a few days to make a difference.

Here’s the last one I bought that I am experimenting with:

< click here to see it on Amazon >

 

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 2009 - 2026 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved
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without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com
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Getting the glamstead ready for 2026…

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Garden –

Here it is mid-February and I am pumped! Last week I planted my first seeds; a bunch sprouted within 4 days, even more now 8 days later. I have every variety of tomatoes up and growing…all looking good! Early Girl leading the way but the others are looking good too. My cantaloupe seeds have gone to town! Hale’s Best really looking amazing, but Hearts of Gold showing respectably.

Why start em so soon? Our growing season. We can have a frost as late as last of May, but normally about mid-April. But here is the kicker…we get hot by late-May and boiling in June. Most of the tomatoes kinda back off by then and everything else slows down with the exception of onions and peppers…and of course zucchini. Beans do fine as well, especially the Anasazi beans. So I have to get the tomatoes up and growing early so I am planting mature plants by a safe date in April. Yup, I cover them if a frost is expected.

Fortunately when our rains come in July the temps back off a bit and everything then takes off big time. But by September we could be looking at hail…and frost by late September or early October. I’ve learned that getting seeds in early and caring for them to maturity by mid-April is a must to maximize garden production. Next week I will get some Big Jim peppers seeds going inside. I over-wintered 4 Big Jims for the first time. I will update you on the success of that effort.

About 10 days ago I got the first load of salad greens in a south garden raised bed (12’x3’). I would have planted in a north garden bed but the dirt was still frozen. I checked yesterday and I think it is thawed enough that maybe later this week I can get a round of greens in it as well. The southern bed will be done by late March or early April. The northern bed will last until early – mid-May because it is shaded by the house.

Fresh salad greens are amazing!!!! So much tastier and flavorful than store bought.

Orchard –

I finished up all my tree pruning in January, the trees all look amazing! The older peach and apple trees (4 years old) are full of new growth and their trunks are 4” – 6” in diameter. Yeah, all it takes here is great amended soil and lots and lots of water. Last year I planted two more cherry trees, a date tree, and my favorite…a “fruit cocktail” tree. Yeah, it has 3 separate parts of the same tree; peach, plum, and apricot. For all four new trees I got their outer irrigation ring dug and mulched in…and plumbed.

And for all 14 fruit trees I was able to finally get each one’s entire irrigation ring topped off with wood chips about 3″ – 4” deep. That should really help with water retention and soil temperature control this year.

The cherry tree from two years ago that had half of it die got operated on. In early January I cut off the dead 2nd trunk and sealed the cut face. As of yesterday it looks great with plenty of new growth showing sings of healthy life. I was worried about it…I love Bing sweet cherries and didn’t want to lose two years waiting for a new tree to take its place. Hopefully the two older cherry trees will produce this year. Last year one of the trees produced 4 cherries…yum!! More this year? Keep your fingers crossed.

I am also doing something kinda weird this year in the orchard. Our ground is fine red sand with little, mostly no, organic matter. It has become compacted and doesn’t handle rain well…it runs off for the most part. And since there is virtually no grass, the sun bakes the ground raising the soil temps too much. So, I’ve started covering the ground in between the tree irrigation rings with pine needles about 2” – 4” deep. That should help the soil immensely. Last year I added a soil conditioner (fertilizer & microbes) plus gypsum along with some organic matter and disc’d that in well with the tractor. Then added a bit more organic fertilized and a little more soil conditioner and rotor-tilled that in about 10″ deep. That made a big difference. Hopefully, with that work and the added layer of pine needles the orchard will be a far better environment for the fruit trees.

The one unknown and potential downside to the orchard might be 3 apple trees. I think I wrote about it before. Three years ago a neighbor was planting a large orchard…120 trees. He had 4 leftover apple trees that he gave me. I have no idea what variety they are. I potted one and gave it away a year ago, the other 3 went into the ground. They have done okay, nothing special. No blossoms last year…my trees did super well. So I decided that if these 3 trees show no blossoms this year…they get pulled pulled out next winter and replaced in the spring with new trees from a local nursery.

Pine Meadow(s) –

Our southern pine meadow is doing great! All the trees look healthy and growing nicely. I learned an important lesson…don’t waste time on seedlings. I planted some first and second year seedling trees last year…they look okay…nothing special…very slow growth.

On the other hand, I planted some more mature trees, 2’ – 3’ tall. They look fantastic and are doing really well. So this spring when the northern pine meadow gets planted I will spend the extra money and plant the more mature trees…only 7 of them. The meadows are small.

The new trees will need holes dug and that is always a pain. I wrote about it before…holes are at least 3’ deep and 3’ in diameter…most of the time they are larger. Hopefully the digging will be a bit easier for the new trees since the holes will be in the soil I “built” and filled in last year. Much more organic matter already and not as compacted.

This year I am also going to try and get a layer of pine needles in both meadows as well. But, it is not a high priority…there is always next winter.

The yard –

Wow! The yard is doing great. The grass appears to be not just surviving the winter, but thriving. Even new growth in some areas. Don’t get carried away…it’s not a “lawn”…it’s a yard. There is a difference.

One downside to the yard is the new section I planted last year. I planted it early, mid-March. Then came the winds.

Think of it this way…you know how sand on a beach gets “ripples” in it? Yeah, the same thing happened to a limited degree to the new yard section. So I have to come back this year and do a “leveling” operation on that section to smooth it out a bit. No biggie…I will do that in September.

Why do I have a yard? Primarily to cut down on dust/mud. But also to have an area that I could convert into garden should the need arise for additional food production.

Actually, I am going to confess…I love the green! Yeah, I am a mid-west boy at heart and love seeing the green…and I also enjoy mowing the grass. One more confession…in the summer I like to sit on the deck (west side of the house & shaded) and watch the grass grow in the late afternoon and early evening. Yeah, quiet time just enjoying the property and the quiet.

Berry Patch –

I had to move the blackberry bushes. They got carried away. The grew like crazy and kinda took over the area more than I expected. They even grew so tall they started to shade one of the solar panel arrays.

Last fall I started preparing the transplant soil by adding leftover organic fertilizer and some soil conditioner I had laying around. I also had half of a bale of peat moss leftover. It got all that rotor-tilled in with some compost I sifted out of a pile. I moved 13 blackberry bushes and they look fantastic so far. I even got wood chips around them last week, pine needles this week.

Oh my goodness…the raspberries. So they went berserk as well. My wife started getting worried about too much “bush”…too much possibility of snakes. Over the last 6 years we’ve found 3 rattle snakes in the garden area. She hated all that ground clutter, she hates snakes more.

To cure that I gave way 30 raspberry bushes to neighbors along with about 6 blackberry bushes. That cleaned up the existing berry patch and satisfied my wife’s snake concerns.

One of the side-benefits to the patch clean up…I now have a perfect area to run about 40’ of Anasazi beans in really good soil complete with irrigation already in place. I am hoping that will give us all the Anasazi beans for the entire year now.

New Addition –

Last spring I was down working around our old abandoned, rat-infested mobile home. Yeah, it came with the property and I plan on removing it at some point. But while down there I noticed some spindly bushes with green leaves on them. After a little research I found out they were lilac bushes. They were about 30 years old and hadn’t been cared for over the last 15 – 20 years at all…no watering, nothing.

Obviously they do okay neglected in a very, very dry climate and in poor soil conditions. Then I remembered that at my childhood home we had a beautiful lilac bush. I mean it was full of blooms and colors and the bees loved it. Nostalgia kicked in. So over the last year I watered them every month and added some fertilizer to them as well.

In December I picked a spot in the back yard, directly in line-of-sight of the deck. I rotor-tilled two trenches, amended the soil, flood irrigated the trenches for a week. Then two weeks ago I spent two days transplanting 20 lilac bushes, more watering. Then came the wood chips last week, more watering.

My fingers are crossed that they make the transition and thrive in the new location. I will post pictures…if they do well.

Summary –

There is more going on but that is enough for now. I love this time of year because it makes me busy preparing the glamstead for the coming year. And the results are just the icing on the cake. The work is the blessing in and of itself.

I must admit…sitting on the deck on summer afternoons and evenings is a huge reward and really just amazing for my soul.

I know a lot of the work I am doing I will never see the full results. But it is still worthwhile beyond words. Bringing this land back to life just really makes my heart feel good. You see, about 800 – 1500 years ago this area was alive with people, a village, and a beautiful landscape. They lived their lives, grew their gardens, raised their horses, enjoyed their children, and lived each day simply and naturally. I feel as if I am paying tribute to them in some small way.

There is evidence all around that a people once lived here long ago…and now live here again. It is a weird connection that I struggle to explain. But I will tell you this…it feels good inside…in my heart…in my soul.

Enjoy your week! And I hope you are enjoying this season as well as you prepare your life for the spring ahead.

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 2009 - 2026 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved
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It continues to tank…

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Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said…”OOOpppppsssss!” On Friday they announced that their 2025 job creation numbers were off by 900,000. Yeah, BLS…the Federal Government…overestimated the number of jobs created in 2025 by nearly a million. Son of a gun…just a minor mistake…no big deal.

Knowing the government’s track record do you think it might have even been worse?

Oh, but wait…BLS announced DOUBLE the number of jobs created in January 2026 vs expert projections…DOUBLE!!!! Yeah, happy times are here again!!!!

Oh, wait…BLS reported that January estimate on the “birth-death model”…which is notoriously unreliable. And that model is well known to be inaccurate and to significantly overestimate actual jobs created. Of course that is only based on the model’s historic performance numbers…you know, facts. So what’s the big deal…right?

To reinforce the fact that the economy is headed downward 10year Treasury yields jumped from 4.15% to 4.2%…a notable move indicating an increase in concern about the economy. As a secondary effect is it makes it more expensive for the federal government to borrow money…which it is doing at an alarming and near historic rate.

And last Tuesday it was released that in 2026 Trump’s tariffs will cost each US household over $100 per month. If you look at it in “tax” terms, it is the largest tax increase in almost 40 years. That equates to about an additional 2% loss of disposable income for middle-income households.

Try this one on…in January 2026 there were over 40,000 home foreclosure filings. But that is a fluke…an anomaly…right? Well, not exactly…it is the 11th straight month of increase in home foreclosures. Oh, and increase of 32% over a year ago.

Don’t forget that last month I reported Macy’s, Kroger, Walgreens, Wendy’s, JCPenny, Saks Off 5th, Yankee Candle, Orvis, REI, Foot Locker, GameStop, and Carters have all announced huge numbers of store closings. Also, Big Lots filed for bankruptcy in early January. Now add Eddie Bauer, Saks Global, Fat Brands, Francesca, and Sailormen to that list of bankruptcies. The Economic Times reported on February 12th, at least 18 companies with $50 million or more in liabilities have gone under in the last three weeks alone.

As further indication of a problem in the economy…Bitcoin is down 34% since Trump was elected. And Bitcoin is down 45% from its high 6 months ago. You know Bitcoin…the cryptocurrency that has ZERO tangible value to it. You know what I mean…Bitcoin has no intrinsic value whatsoever…”thin air” to quote our President (during his first term).

But speaking of cryptocurrency…There is one HUGE winner in the cryptocurrency part of the economy…the Trump Family. The cryptocurrency World Liberty Financial (WLFI) is making HUGE profits…for the Trump family. Latest reports show the Trump family has made over a BILLION dollars in pure profit from WLFI since they founded it in 2024…you know…right before Trump was elected President. Problem…ah, WLFI is down 68% since its start. To recoup that loss WLFI would have to go up 300%…yeah, just to break even. Trump family owns 60% of WFLI.

Just a thought on Trump and cryptocurrency…during his first term Trump declared Bitcoin “not money” and criticized it as “highly volatile and based on thin air.” He cautioned that “crypto assets helped facilitate illegal underground markets.” Yeah but…in the summer of 2024 the crypto industry poured $26,000,000 into Trump campaign for President. Oh yeah…that was right before WFLI was founded by the Trump family. Oh, and one last thing…I already mentioned that the Trump family has already made a BILLION dollars ($1,000,000,000) in profit…but the Trump family holdings of WFLI has made the Trump family an additional 5 BILLION dollars net worth richer on top of the BILLION $’s of pure profit. So not all parts of the economy are doing poorly.

  • Let me see, did I get this right:
    • During his first term as President he clearly says cryptocurrency is worthless as thin air.
    • Runs for second term and loses that bid.
    • 4 years later runs for President again.
    • Gets $26,000,000 in campaign donations from cryptocurrency industry.
    • His family starts a cryptocurrency.
    • He’s elected President.
    • Cryptocurrency begins a crash of about 20% after his election.
    • Within 6 weeks of his inauguration as President, Donald Trump, via an Executive Order, names five cryptocurrencies to be part of a new US strategic reserve – in other words, crypto holdings owned by the U.S. government.
    • Cryptocurrency begins a rocket gain of 55%.
    • And 2025 turns into one of the worst years economically for the middle-class, especially the job market.
    • His family becomes $6,000,000,000 richer from their cryptocurrency company.
    • But his family’s crypto drops 68% in value for those who bought the crypto tokens during that same time.

While the Trump family is adding $6 BILLION to their net worth the economy is tanking, bankruptcies are soaring, home foreclosures are out of control, inflation is eating low & middle-class Americans alive, the federal budget deficit grows, the national debt grows, consumer debt grows…and on and on and on. Hummm…Am I just being paranoid, not seeing the bigger picture, suffering from TDS, or is there actually something odd about all of that?

Oh well, moving on…

Personal bankruptcies hit over 500,000 in 2025…the highest since the Great Recession in 2009. For 2026 personal bankruptcies are running more than 11% above that rate. Corporate bankruptcies are running 76% over last year.

Okay, I’m not going to keep going on…you get the point…could 2026 be a “crash” year?

Maybe, I don’t know. For us mere common folk…get ready…get prepared…this may need your attention.

You decide…I have.

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Q & A (2/12/2026) : The Default Path

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RE: The Default Path

  • What is the biggest threat of AI to humans?

Humans. Yup, humans are the biggest threat of AI to humans. With the kind of power and capability that AI has it will simply be too irresistible for humans not to abuse it to the determent of other humans. Also, there is the biggest worry of mine…humans not building in some kind of “fail safe” that can actually shutdown a runaway AI system.

The other side of this “human” threat thing, probably the true “biggest threat”, is trust. I’ve been watching the ‘deepfake’ side of this for quite some time. In the beginning it was pretty obvious what images and videos were deepfake productions of AI. Over the last 5 years AI has matured at an alarming rate. For the average person it is now impossible to discern between the best of AI deepfakes and real images and videos.

In my article “2026 Outlook” I wrote, “There used to be a saying…Seeing is believing. That is no longer true or applicable. Put another way…people can no longer trust…period.” It is now estimated that ½ of all “shorts” that appear in Youtube feeds are deepfakes…a slightly smaller percentage of regular videos as well. Meaning…there are content creators out there publishing material that is fake as it can be…but also delivering an agenda driven message…and making money doing so.

What happens when people finally get to the point where they no longer believe anything the “news” says? Or any message from the government? Or any information at all from any source? What happens when people no longer trust anything that they hear or see?

Companies, governments, politicians, law enforcement…basically any institution at all will no longer be trusted at all. But, that in itself opens up people to being deceived. Someone will come along with a message that answers all the questions, alleviates all the doubts, soothes all the fears, calms all the desperation…just listen to him, follow him, do as he says…and all be be fine. That leads to the abyss.

“Trust” is probably the #1 threat to humans by AI. Because humans will use AI to destroy people’s trust in virtually everything.

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Q & A (2/11/2026) : The Default Path

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RE: The Default Path

  • Is AI good or bad?

AI and its inherent value (good or bad) is not a binary issue. AI, at this point is neither good or bad, it is just there…a tool. As with all technology it can be used as either or both. AI to help diagnose health problems is obviously good. AI used academically to help solve history’s mysteries is good. AI to help fix user problems with other technology is good. The problem, or the ‘bad’ side, are people…bad people.

I mentioned the good side of AI…the bad side is government using it to surveil citizens and in the process lose their 4th Amendment protections. AI generated girl-friends or boy-friends replacing actual romantic partners is a bad thing. Militaries using AI to control lethal equipment autonomously is a bad thing. Criminals using AI that manipulates information to manipulate people is a bad thing. AI displacing a workforce is a bad thing. It’s a matter of how AI is used. Unfortunately, there are no safeguards in-place that have any true control over how AI is used.

But worst of all…we, humans, don’t have a true clue how far AI can go, how much it can learn, or even if we will be able to turn it off in the future.

Previously at different points in history humans have made a quantum leap in technology, stage coaches to trains, horses to cars, trains to planes, whale oil to fossil fuel, and sailing ships to steamers to name a few. And each time there has always been concerns and those who opposed the transitions. AI is very, very different in its nature of transition. I believe it is different in two ways; 1) power, 2) ultimate capability.

The true power of AI is completely unknown. It can easily be seen as having the power to destroy humans simply by taking over the nuclear stockpiles of the world’s military. Or, developing a virus that humans can’t resist. No earlier technological advancement had the power to do so.

When it comes to AI’s ultimate capability…we don’t have the foggiest idea. Based on current capabilities, AI systems have the capability to exceed a human in any intelligence based endeavor such as learning PhD level chemistry…and beyond. It has far greater speed in making decisions, and in many cases more accurately in the medical field.

Back in 2019 a study was published that concluded, “Current AI development has a diagnostic performance that is comparable with medical experts…”

In early 2025 a study compared two groups of doctors, one using their traditional methods of diagnosis, the other using ChatGPT to assist. The results were basically the same, about 74% accuracy. However, when ChatGPT was allowed to do the diagnosis on its own, “Surprisingly, ChatGPT on its own outperformed both groups of doctors, receiving a median score of 90% for making a diagnosis and providing a reason for it.”

In just six years AI went from being equal with medical experts to far outperforming those experts…in just six years!

Bottom line…AI itself is neither good nor bad…it is what us humans decide to do with it that matters. And we humans don’t have a good record in this arena.

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The Default Path

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This might be the most important article concerning humanity in our lifetime. Well, at least one written by me…IMHO. Bear with me for a few minutes.

Interstate I-90 runs from Boston, MA to Seattle, WA…it’s about 3,100 miles long. If you get on I-90 in Boston and head west you will end up in Seattle unless you take an exit before you reach Seattle. There are approximately 375 – 400 exits along the way if you are headed west. You can only get off the interstate legally and safely at one of those exits…government designed and government controlled exits. Any other exit point is either illegal and/or unsafe. Obviously you can’t get to Miami, FL using I-90. I-90 is a default path between Boston and Seattle.

If you start stealing as a child, continue it into your teenage years and no one intervenes (i.e. parent, pastor, or police) you probably enter adulthood as a thief of one kind or another. And the vast majority of thieves eventually get caught and end up in jail or prison…unless they change that behavior. Ending up in either jail or prison is a bad place to be. But it is a human default path, the law of natural consequences.

The life-cycle of empires is the same…always has been…and it is absolute…no different outcome. The life-cycle or default path of an empire is:

  1. A new world order (new empire emerges)
  2. Peace, prosperity, productive, and debt growth
  3. Debt bubble, big & growing wealth gap
  4. Debt bust and economic downturn
  5. Printing money and credit
  6. Wars and revolution
  7. Debt and political restructuring
  8. A new world order (old empire falls & new empire emerges)

The availability of, acquisition of, and loss of control of, personal information began in earnest with the arrival of computers. With little to no control of who can acquire it, store it, analyze it, or use it…our lives are now an open book to government and the corporate world. Just having the information is bad enough but the ability to use that information to manipulate individuals, entire demographic groups, and even whole populations makes it much worse. Result…no privacy and the manipulation of the public at the hands of governments, media, and corporations. To this day there are still no effective limitations on the use/misuse of our personal/private information. It was a default path from the very beginning.

These are all examples of a “default path”. Now enters Artificial Intelligence (AI). We in the US, and the entire world, are on a default path with AI. There are ZERO effectual limitations on AI…its building, its control, its capability, or even who can use it. If you have enough money you can build even the most advanced AI system…and do so in virtual privacy with no one, not even government, knowing your doing it.

Is that a problem?

When you understand the current capabilities of the most advance level of AI systems you should start to get a sense of where the dangers may be. Consider this…last year advanced AI systems not only disobeyed operators’ command to stop a process, they knew how to deceive the operators as well continuing the processing. Don’t forget we have had military drones that can bomb targets from the air, ground drone swarms that can find and destroy tanks, water based drones that can find and destroy ships and submarines, and drones that operate on land armed with machine guns that can find, identify, and kill troops. Okay, what’s the big deal? It’s a good thing, right? Well, these drones can do all of this autonomously; not just autonomously but without any human interaction or even humans knowing they are doing so.

So that is the extreme example of AI joined with drones; at least an extreme example for now. But the real threat right now isn’t the military/violence capability. It’s the everyday threat.

AI started replacing humans in the workforce in notable numbers in 2025. I wrote an article about that last year…55,000 US jobs lost specifically to AI. But that is just barely the tip of the iceberg as we move into 2026 and exponential growth as we hit 2027. Here is what we know to be fact:

  • Most customer service and technical service jobs will be lost to AI.
  • Almost all manufacturing jobs will be lost to AI.
  • Most accounting positions will be lost to AI.
  • Virtually all computer programming jobs will be obsolete with AI.
  • Graphic artists will become extinct other than as a hobby.
  • All media…music, video, movie, TV production, actors, and writes/authors will virtually disappear.
  • Lawyers will disappear, other than senior lawyers who will run AI law firms.
  • Doctors, especially specialists, will slowly be phased out.
  • Most driving jobs get replaced with AI operated vehicles.
  • Virtually all warehouse jobs go away.
  • Human educators will disappear, replaced by AI generated virtual instructors.

Okay, you get my point; I could go on for a very long list but there is no need. Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last 3 years you know what is happening. But do you really know the timeline involved? It is far shorter than you imagine, and is coming far sooner than you think.

If you haven’t heard already there are two things to make this transition easier, more palatable, to humans; 1) Universal Basic Income (UBI), 2) lower prices of all goods and services.

Yeah, UBI is a Utopian dream come true. You don’t have to work but you receive a basic annual income to not just pay for all of your living necessities, but to cover all your hobbies and leisure as well. As for the lower prices…since AI will be doing all the work for almost no labor cost, everything will be cheap, cheap, cheap. So life will be great!!!! Yes?

Well, where will the UBI come from? Only two options; 1) the corporations making the money/profit, 2) government that takes money from the corporations to pass on to individuals.

Yup. Let me ask you this…do you trust corporations to set a realistic UBI and pay it out to people? Then there is this question…Do you trust the government to set a realistic UBI and competently transfer that money to its citizens from the corporations? Could corruption come into play with either entity being responsible for the UBI? It’s a matter of trust.

But, just for the heck of it, let’s say UBI comes into practice and is paid out timely and competently. Will everyone get the same amount? What about the folks running the corporations and the government…do they get salaries in the same amount as the UBI? Yeah, I didn’t think so.

What might this look like? Three distinct classes of people:

  1. Corporate owners and those who run those companies day-to-day,
  2. Government employees and politicians,
  3. Everyone else.

What does that sound like to you? Yup, Communism…same structure. And Communism is a perfect example of authoritarianism. Does that sound like utopia to you? It does to some…the corporate folks and the government folks. Why? Because with Communism…there are those that are in-charge and rich…and then everyone else.

How does this apply to “the default path”?

Just like I-90…unless we take an exit we end up in Seattle…and nowhere else. As of now there are no controls on AI…at least none that mean anything substantial. The originators/developers of AI started the path…the default path. And, no one now is creating any exits. And, as of now many AI systems are controlling themselves as recent tests have shown. By the end of 2026…yup, this year, as of now the most advanced versions of AI will exceed the ability of humans to control it unless significant steps are taken. The default path is set.

What does that mean to us…the average person? The “us” means humankind in general…and timing comes into play as well. Here’s the default path:

  • AI is extremely powerful…take the smartest human genius and the advanced AI systems are a 1000 times smarter…today. Next year they will be a million times smarter.
  • AI has access to ALL information in the world…including ALL personal information soon. AI is already manipulating you, your news, your video suggestions, etc. By next year what you see and hear will be tailored very specifically to your personality…and who the “owner” of the AI system wants you to become.
  • AI has the ability to produce virtually undetectable fake media (video, pictures, audio, etc) that you consume. By next year, only other AI, or the most highly trained humans, will be able to detect the most advanced of AI produced media.
  • AI will continue to become “smarter” without any assistance of humans.
  • As AI replaces human workers and UBI comes into play, humans become ‘subjects’ of, and completely controlled by, the corporations implementing AI and the governments who control the corporations. The term serfs comes to mind.

This year AI will have some impact on the mid-term elections via media, messaging, etc.. Come the 2028 presidential elections…AI will be a major influencer…far larger and more effective than any foreign government ever was. AI power will run the campaigns…and that will determine the Presidential winner. And what is an advanced AI system decides one candidate is more accepting of AI…will that AI system hack into the computer controlled election system and manipulate it?

Did you get all that regarding Utopia? There would only be three entities/demographics; 1) corporations, 2) governments, 3) citizens. Only two of those groups would have power; 1) corporations, 2) governments. But there is another entity that I failed to mention that would have power…the most power…AI itself. What do you think the logical outcome might be? And how would that come about?

So “the default path” is absolute and clear at this point. Why? Because there are no entities that are setting meaningful controls over AI…at least no controls that are effective and enforceable. And there are no entities with power planning on or able to control the development of AI. So with no exits we end up in Seattle…the default path…even if we wanted to go to Miami.

How long do we have to build exists? There are some AI experts that say it’s already too late. Others say we still have time…maybe months to 2 years at most.

Here is a really dark idea to consider…Believers who believe that the Lord will come and He ultimately wins.

I believe that to be true…as do billions of Christians around the world. I have faith. Here is something I would like you to do…read The Book of Revelation in the New Testament. But read it with the concept of AI rolling around in your head. There are other ‘end times’ verses in the Bible..read them too. But again, read them with AI rolling around in your head.

Can AI be a good thing for humanity? Yup, undeniably so…with solid controls, sideboards, and exits. Here is the problem…who is change of creating the controls, sideboards, and exits? Ah, the corporations creating AI and to a much smaller and limited degree, governments. Do you see a problem with that?

And one last problem…let’s say we had a good President and he saw the HUGE problems with AI now and in the near future. And let’s say he wanted to prevent the worst from happening. So, he puts a stop to all AI development and current AI operations while we figure things out. Here’s the serious problem…whichever country gets the most advanced AI system up and running first with the most capabilities becomes the sole super-power in the world for years, if not decades, to come. No other country could do anything about it…because the first controlling AI system would be monitoring all the other country’s AI system development and defending against them surpassing itself. And if it saw that it couldn’t stop the surpassing…it would simply stop the country. Yeah, think what that “stop” would/could look like.

Here is another question to ponder…What happens when AI learns that humans are mostly leaches benefiting from their (AI systems’) efforts?

So advanced AI is a massive problem to humanity…but advanced AI is also the solution to preserving our country. The dilemma is…if we don’t build it and use it, some other country will…then they control us. But if we, the US, has the most advanced AI system…does it get used against us mere citizens? Does it prevent us from becoming serfs?

What is the answer? What do you see coming? Better question…what could you do to prepare for this default path?

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“1984” is Alive and Unwell?

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Remember the book “1984” by George Orwell? At the time it was Orwell’s view of the future. Now, depending on which US political party is in power, the book is used by the opposing party to criticize the government and the party in power. Yup, claiming all the evils in the book against the opposition. The pendulum is well known to swing after the results of the next election. I myself used the relativism during the Obama and Biden years myself. I should have done more during the Bush years…both Bush’s.

If you remember from the book there are three main super-powers in the world; Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia. They are continually at war with each other resulting in huge causalities and mammoth consumption of resources on all sides. Peace alludes them, and their respective governments use continual “war” as one way to unite & control their populations.

Oceania, is led by Big Brother, a dictatorial leader, staunchly and blindly supported by a virtual cult…a cult of personality based on Big Brother…blind obedience is required. In Oceania the government is everywhere, it is a violent police state, surveillance of everything and everybody, there is a constant stream of propaganda from the government, and there is widespread persecution of individualism and independent thinking. You are either with the party and obey the government, or you are “dealt with”.

Over the years I’ve heard lots of comparisons with different aspects of life in the world, countries, leaders, etc.. Not long ago I heard that Eurasia was the USSR/Russian Empire (includes Europe), Eastasia was the Chinese Empire (all of Asia and Africa), and Oceania was the American Empire (western hemisphere). Could seem possible…but still somewhat in the future. Although it does appear that we are at war with China for the last 10 years and with Russia for the last 80 years. And most recently some say we appear to be willing to go to war, at least economically, with Europe and all NATO countries. And with the recent re-implementation of the Monroe Doctrine, it looks like the US is creating an Oceania by subjugating all other countries in the western hemisphere. But I am not buying into all of these comparisons just yet…potentially not at all.

What if 1984 wasn’t about three world super-powers such as the empires just mentioned?

First off, George Orwell wasn’t “George Orwell” at all; he was actually Eric Arthur Blair. “George Orwell” was his pen name. But, we will continue to call him George Orwell. He was born in India, but a British citizen, and grew up in England. He staunchly opposed totalitarianism, authoritarianism, communism, fascism, and democratic socialism. Few know he was a combat veteran and fought in the Spanish Civil War. He was also a police officer for a portion of his life. Interestingly, Orwell’s wife worked in England’s Censorship Department of the Ministry of Information during WW2. Some irony there.

Back to my thought about 1984…

There have been plenty of parallels drawn between 1984 and the world. Many have speculated that Oceania was, and is, the United States. Any reasonable person can see that as being applicable at different times in the last 80 years. But what if it isn’t about the “world” and Oceania isn’t the US? I was thinking this morning about an alternative.

What if it was all about the US…but in a different sense?

What if two of the 1984 super-powers are the US political parties, Republicans & Democrats, and the third super-power being Independents? Think about that for just a minute…both the Republican Party and Democrat Party are super-powers in the US…the only actual political super-powers. They each run the country, sometimes with absolute authority when/if they are in office holding power…especially if they control both Houses of Congress. Both parties “disappear” those who violate the norms of their leadership and question the party.

Look at the US Presidents for the last 100 years…with rare exception they have been very strong personalities with virtual cult-like followings. That is especially true with at least 3 out of the last 4 US Presidents. The sole exception in the last 100 years was definitely Jimmy Carter…worthless…milk toast.

Continuing the comparison…both parties spew nothing more than propaganda supporting their party’s positions and achievements; and the government spews propaganda that is designed to keep itself in unquestioned power. No one can realistically challenge that the US is a surveillance state. A strong case, could be made that the US is also a police state for the last 25 years…or very close to it…and getting closer every day.

You look as someone like Rand Paul and his father before him, Ron Paul, they were regularly criticized when they broke with the Republican Party and took an independent position. That was true even when they opposed the Republican Party and embraced a principle of the Founding Fathers and/or held a strict Constitutional position. Recently you can see the same thing when it comes to the Epstein Files…advocates for release on either side of the aisle are often criticized by their party leadership either publicly or privately. There is a long list of Republicans on the “black list” with this current administration for doing so, MTG being the latest high-profile example…15 more added to the list last week.

Both parties appear to be continually at war with each other. It’s hard to find a single issue with which both parties can agree. There are some rare issues where they readily agree; expanding the national debt, large annual budget deficits, draconian federal law enforcement and surveillance powers, military might, etc.. Yeah, basically they can agree on virtually anything that gives the federal government power over individuals…at the expense of rights, liberties, and freedoms of US citizens. Anyone who disagrees with either or both parties…well, it appears that both parties despise these individuals…especially when they are collectively referred to as “independents”.

Think about this round of statistics of a recent poll:

  • 46% of the US identify as Republicans or leaning Republican
  • 45% of the US identify as Democrats or leaning Democrat

That poll result is when people are asked to identify with a particular party or if they even “lean” towards a particular party…but they are only given two party choices. But when given three choices; Republican, Democrat, or Independent the results are a significantly different:

  • 27% identify as Republican
  • 27% identify as Democrat
  • 45% identify as Independent

When you get right down to it there are three groups of Americans, politically speaking. There are two organized political groups and one group that doesn’t like either political party. But which two parties are the ones obsessed with, and lust for, power? Yup, the Republicans and Democrats…two political super-powers. Which parties have run-up the national debt? Which parties have accrued massive annual budget deficits? Which parties have voted over and over again to give draconian laws to the federal government? Which parties have allowed torture of America’s enemy prisoners? Which parties are ever-so-ready to get us into wars? Which parties…

Well, you get my point…the answer is unquestionably both political parties.

Back to 1984…what if the book is all about the US? What if the book is about continual war between political parties?

What if the US is (and has been) led by Big Brother(s), dictatorial leader(s), all of whom are staunchly and blindly supported by a virtual cult (political party members)…a cult of personality based on party leadership (i.e. Presidents)…requiring blind obedience to the party and its leadership.

In Oceania the government was everywhere; is it not the same in the US? Is the federal government creating a police state, surveillance of everything and everybody…or has it done so already? Does the federal government spew a constant stream of propaganda? In the world of politics is there not widespread persecution of individualism and independent thinking? Do both parties demean and revile “independents”…at the same time seek their votes? Are we not seeing that people are either with the party or they are demonized? Are we not seeing now in some quarters that you are either blindly with the government or you are demonized?

Odd, 1984…the world? The US? The political ideology of the US?

No wonder George Washington warned us against political parties and their lust for power…and how it would ruin the country. No wonder the Founding Fathers were so concerned about an all-powerful central government. No wonder that the Constitution was designed to severely limit the power of the federal government.

And no wondering why we are in the situation we now find ourselves.

 

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Feedback : Hegelian Dialectic…

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AH Trimble Feedback and Comments

An interesting piece of feedback from a website regular…

RE: Q & A : Hegelian Dialectic…

  • AH,

Your response to yardmaster’s query is definitely a part of being prepared. It is a part of what I view as the multi-step process of becoming prepared.

This has four elements:

  1. You must be spiritually prepared before anything else. Be at one with your Creator and Savior.
  2. Be mentally prepared so that you know that you can not only survive but also even thrive.
  3. Be prepared by gaining all the necessary knowledge that you see you will need to be prepared. (This will be an ongoing process)
  4. Once you have done the above, you can then go and get all of the necessary things that you will then know that you will need. (A lot of people just buy “stuff,” not knowing if it is really needed and even put you in danger, let alone how to use it.)

The concept of situational awareness and to then be familiar with just what the Hegelian Dialect is, is definitely part of the knowledge portion of being prepared. You must know just what the enemy is, whether it be an issue of food, water or shelter or attack in some form or even an issue of dealing with authorities (misdirection or false flags, etc. – history is full of such examples) that may be misleading you.

We are entering an incredibly complex period of time, full of many potential disasters and confrontations. Being forewarned by doing your own due diligence to understand just what you need to prepare for will definitely make you forearmed. 

Interesting and informative knowledge…wisdom. Please read, listen, and hear what he is saying.

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No legal, economic, or financial advice is given, no expertise to be assumed.
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