The Iran War is raising a lot of concerns and questions…and some fear. Let me address some of the questions that are coming in…
- Can we win the war with Iran?
First off…I’m glad you realize it is actually a war. It’s not a “military action” or “limited strikes” or a “police action”…it is plain and simple…a war.
Here’s the tricky part to your question…What does “win” mean? Literally, you have to go back 80 years to WW2 to see an actual war that we, the USA, won. There is little debate that we lost the Afghanistan War, or Iraq War 2. The first Iraq war (Gulf War – 1990-91) was a weird one; we just declared victory (i.e. mission accomplished) and then pulled out. But, it could hardly be considered a “win” when we decided to go back to war 12 years later with Iraq. Then look at the Vietnam War…a huge loss for the US. The Korean War was not a win either. So in the last 80 years, 5 wars, no “win”. So history pretty much shows that we will not win the war with Iran. Maybe better said, we cannot win the war with Iran.
So now you might want to know how we lose. We fight, destroy their country, kill thousands or 10’s of thousands, obliterate their navy, eliminate their air force, turn their cities into stone age piles of rubble, decimate their oil infrastructure, and kill their top level political, military, and religious leadership. Is that a “win”? Well, the last two wars we lost, Iraq & Afghanistan, after having done the same things. So you tell me what a “win” looks like.
Look at it this way…Trump wanted to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability so he bombed the heck out of them last year. But in the last few days he also said that these current strikes were to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability. So last year’s strikes were a failure, yes? Or, was Trump lying? But, Trump also said the Iran War was for regime change…well, that utterly failed in Iraq & Afghanistan, yes? So can we be successful with that objective in Iran? No, we won’t be, we can’t be.
In my opinion…there is absolutely no way we “win” the war with Iran…period…full stop…end of story. What we will do is destroy and kill…and then more destroying and more killing…then repeat, repeat, repeat. But we will not win. The truly frightening part…Trump is not ruling out “boots on the ground” in Iran. His words exactly. Yet, another nightmare scenario for the US. We are dumber than door nails…we just can’t seem to learn the obvious lesson.
- Can Iran win the war?
Yes, it is far more likely that Iran will win the war than the US. Just like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam…Iran will outlast us. And there is a possibility that Iran will lead to the destruction of the US…or at least remove it as the world’s sole super power. How? Ah, yes…
The Iran War is the first war for the US that is not, or at least no yet, a ground war. The Iran War is an air war…planes, missiles, and drones. Iran doesn’t need to strike the US to win, or even defeat the US in conventional terms. All Iran has to do is run the US out of defensive missiles. Iran has thousands of missiles and tens of thousands of drones…it can fire at targets. To defend those targets the US and its allies have to use at least 2 interceptor missiles to successfully bring down the incoming missile. More interceptors are needed for incoming drones.
So the question is…does Iran have more missiles and drones than the US has interceptors? The answer is yes. And then consider that the US has a very, very limited capacity to manufacture new interceptors to replace the ones they are using. We simply can’t build enough to anywhere near replace the quantity we are using at or near this rate. All Iran has to do is endure that punishment we are giving them…and keep firing those missiles and drones until we hit a critical minimum level of interceptors. Then they keep firing more…and we go into “peace talks”…yeah, they win.
While that is going on…do you not think that China and Russia aren’t counting the interceptors that we are using? If we hit a critical minimum level…China has hundreds and hundreds of thousands of missiles and drones. Think Taiwan.
So Iran has a far better chance of winning than the US…and China is sitting back watching their chances of winning improve with every interceptor we fire. And watch for China sending more drones to Iran…they already shipped a bunch last year after we bombed Iran.
- I’ve heard Trump and Rubio both explain why we to war with Iran and I don’t believe them. What do you think?
Well, it’s not a simple answer, lots of factors in play. In my opinion both have said partial truths but not the whole truth. I am not even sure if anyone, including Trump and Rubio, knows the real truth. But, I think:
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- Israel has been pushing for war with Iran for decades. This was their perfect opportunity for them with Trump as President (Israel boot licker) and a Republican Congress (Israel bribe takers). Israel saw the chance to kill Iran’s leader and they let the US know they were going to do it. Trump would not be outdone by Israel so he struck first.
- Trump didn’t like Iran dragging out negotiations at the bargaining table over nukes. Trump always has to be unquestionably in-charge. Trump’s ego drove him to use the military might of the US to force Iran’s capitulation.
- Trump wants to force China’s submission to the US. He can’t do it with trade because we are dependent on China. But, he can hurt China with eliminating a notable percentage of their oil imports by cutting off Iran’s oil exports to China.
- Trump is afraid of BRICS and their growing global influence and power. Destroying Iran would be a blow to BRICS.
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And I’m not sure how to say this without it sounding disrespectful…and it’s not meant to be. I honestly think President Trump sees himself as this major force of good in the world…kinda like a “savior” complex mixed with a “God” complex. I think he truly sees Iran as a threat to the entire world, or at least the wider middle-east region. And by regime change to a US-friendly Iranian government he makes the world a better place.
Unfortunately Trump isn’t a good student of history, or he allows his ego to make him think he is the exception not the rule. If you look at Iranian history you also have to consider the fact that they are Persians. And Persia was a global empire long before America as a country was even a concept…by 1500 years. And Persians were/are some of the most intelligent people on earth for thousands of years. True, Islam has severely curtailed that intelligence and stifled that culture…but has not eliminated it. Islam has made them more radical of late…and that makes them more dangerous to their enemies.
So…Trump vs Iran…Iran wins. Their history proves they will outlast whatever Trump and the US throws at them. And the last 80 years of US history shows we will destroy and kill…and lose. But that won’t stop Trump…he is on a mission…a crusade. Unfortunately more like Don Quito than George Washington.
- You said to “prepare” for the war with Iran. What do I do?
No, I didn’t say prepare for war with Iran. I said prepare. The war with Iran is just another blow against the world and US situation right now. The Iran War is taking a huge toll on the US government budget. And it will have a significant negative impact on the US economy…and consumer wallets.
Look at it this way…in the last week gasoline here locally is up 6%. However, crude oil is up 14% indicating that gasoline is on the way up. As fuel prices increase the price of EVERYTHING goes up. But this only one aspect of the larger situation.
Taken as a whole the economy is a wreck, the employment situation is deteriorating day-by-day, and the dollar gets weaker and weaker. So I am saying “prepare” for what is happening and what is likely to happen. Then if you have some time and money leftover prepare for what “might” happen.
So no, you can’t and shouldn’t personally prepare for war with Iran…just prepare for the situation in the world today…and what we are facing in the near future.
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