The Nation in Transition
I’ve been in a transition for about a year now. No, get your mind out of the gutter…it is a philosophical transition with me. You might call it a process that I wasn’t aware of…that is leading to an outcome I am not sure of. But, a transition is taking place…that I can assure you of. And that transition of mine a 3rd level transition. Confused yet?
About a year or so ago I noticed a significant transition taking place in the United States. We had just come out of a presidential election with very high hopes for an incredible resurrection/restoration of the United States. People were excited, exceptions were high, the promise of a better tomorrow was even higher. And then we saw an ugly turn of events with protests and riots, violence and deaths between federal forces and civilians.
Close behind we saw the economy begin to crack, prices increased, employment began to suffer, and the US began an ugly road of international interference and violence. Many previously enthusiastic US citizens began to become disillusioned with the way the country was headed. Myself included.
The longer I thought about it the more I realized that this was not the beginning of a national transition. The transition actually began in 2001 right after 9/11. Everyone that was alive and awake then saw it begin. In the name of safety and security US citizens lost more and more freedoms and liberties. Along with that the US killed 1,000,000+ people, mostly in the middle east, in two wars last 20+ years. We endured a series of presidents and politicians that have created the most toxic divisive US citizenry we’ve seen in the last 150 years. Along with all of that we endured the Great Recession and the COVID shutdown.
I’ve been doing “deep dive” research for various website articles for 15 years now. Many times along the way I have been startled and shocked by what I’ve learned. One of the most amazing things I noticed is that, while connecting the dots, there have been five previous “transitions” that have occurred in the US. Combined with the current transition…that makes a total of six including our current one. In other words…I believe there have been 6 periods of dots connected that show a significant shift in who and what the United States is.
Over time I began to realize this national transition was affecting preparedness and even my own thinking, but those are discussions for another day.
Let me share just a bit of hardcore FACTS & statistics…..
Bad enough…let me show you the worst of it…
You can see that the facts and statistics absolutely 100% correctly shows America has been transitioning since post-WW2. Things got better…then it all started to tank economically in the 1970’s.
What I am saying is we hit another transition period in 2000. Look at the economic numbers…
We are significantly worse off now economically than 26 years ago…and that is 100% FACT. Major economic indicators affecting American families prove that to be true.
But here is where I find the real story affecting American families the most…
- Real wages went from growing to losing pace with inflation…by a lot.
- Home prices are dramatically higher.
- Consumer sentiment has been cut by more than half.
America is NOT the economic country it use to be…and American families are losing ground big-time!
Let’s touch on “Consumer Sentiment” for just a minute…meaning how people feel about their financial situation and the economy.
To come up with valid and reliable measurable statistics researchers ask people questions like:
- Are you financially better off than a year ago?
- Will you be financially better off a year from now?
- Is now a good time to buy major household items?
- Do you expect business conditions to improve or worsen?
- How do you view the economy over the next few years?
Then they combine the answers into an index…a measurable statistic that shows how US citizens feel about the US economy. It is a very telling stat! It is what ordinary people see in the economy and think about where it is headed. It is not some egg-head expert and their theories…it is reality for American families. “Collapsing” would be the right word to describe what is happening.
For Americans…economic optimism has declined significantly since 1940. And oddly enough…ALL those other statistics and facts back up that view…especially the last nearly 60 years. The glaring decline has occurred since 2000.
Take a minute and look back at that “median home price” stat…please. In just 26 years home prices went from $169,000 to $417,700. That is WAY more than doubled in price!!
Now it gets worse…way worse…during that same time. Real wages are falling…and that is a disastrous one-two punch to American families.
Does this want to make you ask:
- What does this mean?
- Why are home prices up 147%?
- Why has sentiment collapsed?
- Why do people feel worse despite low unemployment?
We can debate the “why” all day long. I have my opinion based on facts as to why. Wanna hear them?
- American families are becoming poorer and poorer…unless you are in the upper-class…the rich folks. And that has been happening for decades and decades. You could make the case that it has been happening in one form or another since 1940, 86 years ago, when you look at the “Fading American Dream” statistic.
- Home prices are up because…well, at least my observations:
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- Supply constraints / government regulation
- Monetary policy and low interest rates (think…the Federal Reserve)
- Population growth exceeding housing construction (including illegal immigration)
- Rising construction costs
- Institutional investors
- Consumer preference for larger homes
- Consumer sentiment is collapsing because:
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- Collapsing primarily because an increasing number of Americans feel they are working harder, paying more for everything, and receiving less opportunity; they feel less financially secure, and less in control of their lives.
- Close behind I would add loss of confidence and trust in institutions plus information overload.
- However, personally, I think loss of agency is actually #1. People increasingly feel:
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- They have fewer options.
- Their decisions matter less.
- Their influence is smaller.
- Their future is less controllable.
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- People feel worse despite low unemployment because:
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- A job is not the same as prosperity.
- Think what the answers would be of those who have a job, if we asked:
- Can you buy a house?
- Can you save money?
- Can you retire?
- Can you afford healthcare?
- Can you send kids to college?
- Can you handle a major emergency?
- Think about this…people can feel worse despite low unemployment because unemployment measures whether people have jobs, not whether those jobs provide affordability, opportunity, security, or upward mobility for them or their children.
Here’s the problem…I don’t know what the US will transition into…the “end result” if you will. I’, starting to wonder “Are we even asking the right questions?”
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