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Part 2 of a four-part series on identifying, evaluating, and reducing preparedness risks.

If you haven’t read Part 1 yet, I’d encourage you to do that before continuing. It will make the rest of this article much easier to understand.

< Click here to read Part #1 >

Here’s the Threat Matrix we used previously.

In the exercise from Part 1, I asked you to estimate the Probability and Severity for each threat. At that point I wasn’t concerned about whether your numbers were exactly right. The purpose was simply to get you thinking.

Now it’s time to put some definitions behind those numbers.

You can use my definitions exactly as they’re written, or you can modify them to better fit your own situation. The important thing is to develop a system that is consistent. If you use the same definitions every time, your ratings become much more meaningful and much easier to compare over time.

Let’s start with Probability.

The following chart gives you a practical way to rate how likely an event is to occur and the timeframe in which it might happen.

Using these definitions will help you rate future threats consistently instead of relying on whatever “feels right” at the moment.

Now let’s do the same thing for Severity.

Just as with Probability, these definitions give you a consistent way to judge the impact a threat could have on your family if it actually occurs.

Now that we’ve defined Probability and Severity, it’s time to put them to work.

The next worksheet is where you’ll begin identifying and rating the threats you believe could affect you, your family, your group, or your community.

Here’s an example using a completed worksheet.

Now it’s your turn.

Take some time and list the threats and risks you believe could affect your family during an emergency, disaster, or prolonged “grid-down” event.

Don’t rush through it.

Think about where you live, the people who depend on you, your available resources, and the kinds of events that are most likely to occur in your area. Then assign each threat a Probability rating and a Severity rating using the definitions we just established.

Finally, add the two numbers together and divide by two to arrive at your Final Rating. That final rating gives you a consistent way to compare one threat against another.

I know…This looks a little like homework. Truthfully, it is.

Preparedness isn’t just about buying supplies. It’s about thinking clearly before you need those supplies. If we don’t have a logical way to identify and evaluate risks, how do we ever know whether we’re preparing for the right things?

That’s the whole point of this exercise. Now we come to the final piece of the puzzle…Mitigation.

The purpose of the Threat Matrix isn’t simply to identify threats. It’s to help you decide what to do about them. Once you’ve rated each threat, the colored areas of the matrix tell you how aggressively you should respond.

Here’s the general approach I use.

Little Concern

These are threats that are unlikely to occur or would have only a minor impact if they did. That doesn’t mean you ignore them.

Stay aware of what’s happening around you. Review these threats every few months and watch for changes that could increase either their probability or their severity.

Sometimes a small concern today becomes a much bigger concern tomorrow.

Moderate Concern

These threats deserve a written plan. Begin taking reasonable steps to reduce the risk and establish a timetable for completing those improvements.

Review these threats at least monthly, and more often if conditions begin changing.

Serious Concern

Now we’re getting into threats that require immediate attention. Corrective action should begin as soon as practical.

Develop a written plan, identify the trigger points that would indicate conditions are getting worse, and make sure everyone involved understands what actions need to be taken if those trigger points are reached.

These threats should be reviewed frequently, especially during emergencies or periods of increasing instability.

Critical Concern

These are the threats that can seriously injure or kill members of your family if you fail to prepare. Immediate action is required.

Everyone involved should understand the plan, know their responsibilities, and be prepared to act quickly if conditions change. These threats deserve your closest attention and should be reviewed regularly until the risk has been reduced.

The important thing isn’t whether a threat falls exactly on one side of a line or another. The important thing is that you’ve developed a logical process for identifying your biggest concerns and deciding where your preparedness efforts should be focused.

I hope this has helped you understand how risk & threat assessment can help you think clearly, rationally, and logically when it comes to prepping. With this system you can correctly figure out what your biggest threat/risk is, how likely it is to occur, how severe of an impact it will have on your family…and then what to do about it.

←Click here to go to Part #1 | Click here to go to Part #3 →