Part 4 of a four-part series on identifying, evaluating, and reducing preparedness risks.
In this series of articles based on threats and risks to the “prepper” I have covered a lot of ground. My goal has been to provide preppers with a valid and reliable system for assessing threats and risks. Once those threats have been identified and ranked, you can begin developing a plan to reduce their impact on you, your family, your group, and ultimately your community.
Back in Part 1 we identified the two parts of every threat:
Probability and Severity.
Or, stated another way:
How likely is the event to occur, and how severe will the outcome be if it does?
The good news is that we aren’t helpless.
By reducing either the probability of an event occurring, the severity of its impact, or both, we can significantly improve our ability to survive emergencies, disasters, and even prolonged grid-down events.
Earlier in this series I used vehicle accidents as an example. Over the years, manufacturers, engineers, and government agencies have reduced both the probability of accidents and the severity of injuries through better training, improved vehicle design, safer roads, seat belts, air bags, and dozens of other improvements.
Preparedness works exactly the same way.
In Part 2 we discussed the different Concern Levels and how they help establish priorities. Every threat deserves some attention, but those that fall into the Critical Concern category require immediate action.
In Part 3 I showed you how I applied this system to the threats facing my own family at that particular time. Based on those ratings, my priorities looked like this:
When plotted on the Threat Matrix, they looked like this:
Now comes the most important step.
How do we actually reduce those risks?
For learning purposes, I’m going to work through my list in reverse Concern Level order.
Heart Attack
Reduce the probability of occurrence
I eat reasonably healthy, exercise regularly, and have a complete physical every three years. I’ve also educated myself on the warning signs of a heart attack and try not to push much beyond what I know are my physical limitations.
I’m married and active in my church, both of which have been shown to reduce the statistical risk of heart attacks.
Reduce the severity should it occur
The people around me on a daily basis are trained in CPR. Within our small group of friends we also have several people with solid medical training. I also keep aspirin and nitroglycerin in my medical kit.
EMP or Nuclear Strike
Reduce the probability of occurrence
There isn’t much I can do to affect the probability of this event beyond the ballot box. I vote for candidates I believe are least likely to involve our country in a conflict that could escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.
Reduce the severity should it occur
I live in an area that is unlikely to be a primary target. I have tools and equipment that can be used without commercial power, and I’ve taken modest steps to protect some of that equipment from the effects of an EMP.
Invasion of the United States
Reduce the probability of occurrence
Again, there is very little I can do beyond participating in the political process. As I mentioned in Part 3, I believe a conventional invasion of the United States is extremely unlikely.
Reduce the severity should it occur
I looked at the disruptions that would likely accompany such an event rather than focusing on the invasion itself.
Those disruptions include:
- Food distribution
- Communications
- Electrical power
- Martial law
- Violence
- Occupation
To reduce the impact of those disruptions, I’ve taken the following steps:
- Maintain a supply of stored food and the ability to grow more.
- Maintain several methods of receiving information and communicating with others.
- Maintain limited backup electrical power through generators and solar.
- Be prepared to shelter in place for an extended period.
- Have the means to defend my family.
- Maintain plans for relocating if remaining becomes too dangerous.
Epidemic / Pandemic
Reduce the probability of occurrence
I have very little ability to influence an epidemic or pandemic on a national scale.
On a family level, however, we can dramatically reduce our exposure by self-quarantining if necessary. We also maintain personal protective equipment and have plans to relocate to less populated areas if conditions warrant.
Reduce the severity should it occur
We maintain a supply of over-the-counter medications, basic antibiotics, and vitamins to help support our family’s health during a prolonged event.
Stock Market Crash
Reduce the probability of occurrence
I have no control over whether the stock market crashes.
Reduce the severity should it occur
While a portion of our retirement savings is invested in mutual funds, those funds are managed with a greater emphasis on preserving capital than simply chasing returns.
We also have trigger points that allow us to move stock-based investments into cash-equivalent funds with a single phone call if conditions warrant.
Not all of our retirement savings are tied to the stock market. We also have investments in cash equivalents, precious metals, real estate, and other tangible assets.
Retirement
Reduce the probability of occurrence
Actually, I don’t want to reduce the probability of this event.
I’m looking forward to retirement.
Reduce the severity should it occur
We’ve worked to build retirement accounts and investments that reduce our dependence on Social Security.
We maintain food storage, and our goal is to have our retirement property debt-free before we retire. We’re also working toward producing a significant portion of our own food.
Living off-grid will also reduce many of our long-term utility costs.
Financial Collapse
Reduce the probability of occurrence
Like the stock market, I have no control over whether the financial system collapses.
Reduce the severity should it occur
We maintain a cash emergency fund, a precious metals reserve, and other tangible assets with real value.
We’re also working toward owning our retirement property free and clear, and we keep a portion of our retirement savings in cash-equivalent investments that can be accessed quickly if necessary.
Flu
Reduce the probability of occurrence
I can’t stop the flu from spreading across the country.
What I can do is reduce my family’s exposure.
We can self-quarantine if necessary, use personal protective equipment when appropriate, and relocate if conditions warrant.
Reduce the severity should it occur
We maintain a supply of over-the-counter medications, basic antibiotics, and vitamins to help us deal with an extended illness.
Police State
Reduce the probability of occurrence
In Part 3 I explained why I believe this is an inevitable trend throughout history.
While I can’t stop that trend by myself, I can remain aware of it, recognize it when I see it, and oppose policies that I believe move us further in that direction.
I can vote.
I can peacefully oppose those policies when appropriate.
And I can talk to others who are willing to have an honest conversation about what’s happening.
Reduce the severity should it occur
This is a tough one.
If you think about it, nearly every preparedness activity we’ve discussed throughout this series applies to this single event.
To reduce the severity of its impact, I believe I need the ability to:
- Defend myself and my family against violence and oppression.
- Provide basic medical care to my family, my group, and my community.
- Communicate outside the normal communications infrastructure.
- Produce or obtain food without depending entirely on the commercial food distribution system.
- Store, filter, and purify water.
- Generate a limited amount of electrical power independent of the utility grid.
- Identify and work with like-minded people who share similar values and goals.
- Relocate, if necessary, to an area where conditions may be safer.
To accomplish those goals, I need to:
- Maintain adequate defensive tools and the training to use them responsibly.
- Develop medical knowledge and maintain appropriate medical supplies.
- Build multiple layers of communications capability.
- Store food and continue developing the ability to grow more.
- Store water and maintain filtration and purification capability.
- Maintain backup power through generators, solar, and appropriate fuel storage.
- Develop relationships with people who share similar preparedness goals.
- Establish reciprocal agreements with trusted friends or family outside my immediate area.
As I worked through this process, something became very clear.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
By preparing for the event that would have the greatest impact on my family, I also found myself preparing for many of the other events on my list. The difference wasn’t so much what I was preparing for. It was deciding where to begin.
That’s exactly what this system is designed to do.
I would encourage you to work through your own list of potential threats and rate each one using the system we’ve discussed throughout this series.
Once you’ve identified your highest priorities, begin looking at each event individually. Ask yourself two questions.
- What can I do to reduce the probability that this event will affect my family?
- If it does occur, what can I do to reduce its impact?
The answers to those two questions will naturally become your preparedness plan.
I’d also encourage you not to look much beyond your own family at first. Once you’ve made meaningful progress there, begin thinking about your preparedness group. After that, consider your community.
Preparedness is built one step at a time.
I hope this series has given you a practical and reliable way to identify threats, evaluate risks, establish priorities, and reduce the impact those events could have on your family.
Although I’ve focused on preparedness, you’ll probably discover that this process works in many other areas of life. Whether you’re planning a project, managing a business, organizing a mission, or simply making an important decision, the process is the same.
- Identify the risks.
- Evaluate their probability and severity.
- Then take deliberate steps to reduce both.
It’s a simple system. But it works. This is a valuable tool in the prepper’s toolbox, good luck!
Good luck…and stay prepared.