A friend of mine emailed me earlier this week and asked me a question…
“When did I think the shiz would hit the fizzle?”
My reply was a bit long and they thank ed me for the info and time. Well, I thought it would make a good article for everyone.
Here you go…
Until this year I would have said any day now. 5-10 years ago I would have said before the end of the year…that year…any given year. Now, I just don’t know.
My mindset changed a whole lot. After having done the research for a whole lot of articles in the last 6 months, and especially for:
And more “mind changing” has occurred but I just haven’t written about it yet. But here are some thoughts today…early in the morning…
TPTB are winning…and by a huge margin. They are winning on all but one front. The only place they aren’t winning is the gospel/church.
I am more convinced than ever that “the shiz hitting the fizzle” will happen when something significant happens…that we don’t expect:
- The people at the bottom 90% of the economy simply get tired of losing income and wealth to the top 10%, especially the top 1%.
- Something like “Flock” just pushes people over the edge. Honestly, something like the Boston Flock Party < click here to read >
- The dreaded Black Swan.
The name comes from the old European assumption that all swans were white. Europeans had never seen otherwise, until explorers encountered black swans in Australia. One observation destroyed what had seemed like a perfectly reasonable rule/expectation.
Think of it this way…“We didn’t seriously anticipate that happening, and now it changes everything.”
For a Black Swan event…here’s what I find interesting:
- We didn’t win in Iraq
- We didn’t win in Afghanistan
- We haven’t won in Iran yet…they are still operational
And yet we are considered the #1 military in the world but can’t win against three third/fourth/fifth world militaries.
Now add that to…
China’s economy is about 63% the size of the U.S. economy measured at market exchange rates. But there’s an important twist…if you measure GDP using purchasing-power parity (PPP) that adjusts for the fact that goods and services generally cost less in China…China’s economy is already larger than the United States.
PPP is useful when asking how much each economy can actually produce or purchase domestically. And China’s GDP is growing faster. World Bank reports 5.0% Chinese growth versus 2.2% U.S. growth in 2025. China’s growth is more than DOUBLE the growth of the US.
Think about this…China wakes up one morning and they dump their US national debt holdings…ouch! Serious market problems.
Remember, COVID and the supply chain issues with all those shipping delays? What if China simply stopped all shipments to the US?
There’s an ugly combination there…China could crash the US economy within a month, at most, without firing a shot.
And if the US opted for a military option…only 4 out of 11 aircraft carriers are combat operational. And the Lincoln is on her way home…leaving 3 carriers. NONE…to answer aggression by China if they started anything. Why? No US aircraft carrier is stationed/located anywhere near China…by many thousands of miles…and 2 of the 3 are committed to the Iran War.
And the US arsenal of primary missile systems is “significantly depleted”. Estimates are 8 years to replenish what has been expended in Iran and Ukraine and Israel. And that replenishment will all be paid for with “national borrowing” adding to “national debt”…if the US credit can support the borrowing/printing.
ALL of the key ingredients are in place for the “the shiz hitting the fizzle” either domestically or internationally. And I mean ALL of them.
Domestically, the most disturbing number for me right now is a combination:
- Trump’s approval rating is about 33% approve, 66% don’t.
- Only 27% think the country is on the “right track”.
- If you annualized the August inflation number…inflation is now 4.8%.
Those numbers are not meant to disparage Trump…they show that the vast majority of people are really unhappy right now and hurting economically. People, by a 3 to 1 margin, think the country is screwed up right now. And the numbers & statistics prove it.
None of the numbers look good for the economy, which has been seriously worsening for almost two years now. That is bad enough to be sure…but add in that it appears almost certain Dems will take the House. That means endless political tactical moves against Trump by the Dems. That will further divide and anger the citizenry against each other…just as both political parties want it.
From what I see it is about a 50/50 chance right now the Dems take the Senate.
If Dems take the House I am saying there is a 90% chance that Trump will be impeached. Good or bad? Depends on a person’s political leanings.
If Dems take the Senate as well…Trump still gets impeached but the Senate will not remove him from office…not enough votes to do it. Good or bad? Depends on a person’s political leanings.
From my perspective…Trump’s presidency is effectively over in January 2027 and the country gets “locked out” from anything happening in Washington…that doesn’t end up in the courts. Good or bad? Depends on a person’s political leanings.
But here’s my point…If Dems win in the mid-terms it is opening the door to anything happening domestically or internationally. The country is divided and weak right now…the world knows it. And many countries would love to take advantage of it…and are already planning to do so.
If Dems don’t win the mid-terms and don’t take the House…OMG…hang on! I think it will be a huge trigger event for the wackos to come out of the shadows.
We may differ on our views of Trump, please take that into account. I think Trump is mentally unstable at this point. If Repubs win…Trump will be emboldened like never before and make moves that will continue to divide the country…and endanger it. Obviously the economy will continue to get worse but I also think his military adventurism will go through the roof. Meaning:
1) Economy continuing to get worse could trigger any number of events domestically.
2) More wars and military actions could trigger events internationally.
Bottom line…I’m still not sure when it hits the fan…but the next 4 – 6 months could be VERY telling. And I would be prepared for it if someone was asking.
Beware of the Black Swan event.
Yeah, you better read tomorrows article as well…just saying…