Let the numbers ring !

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The US federal government just released the official numbers a couple of days ago…records set! Big beautiful, best every, fantastic, gorgeous, most largest numbers ever in the history of the country. Seriously, there’s never been better numbers in the universe, in the history of mankind, probable never anything more beautiful in the history of the world…nothing better in the history of history. They’ve never been better, no administration has ever done this good, historically amazing, period.

Okay…enough of the lame sarcasm. Let’s talk for just a minute how the economy is actually doing according to facts…true REALITY! Yup, unbiased reality.

The numbers that the government just released for 2025…and it ain’t good. 2025 was the worst year for hiring since 2020. Yeah, hiring in 2025 was really bad. Worse than any year of the previous administration…other than 2020 (Trump’s first term during COVID). Is that all? Ah, no.

If you remember 2020 was the first bad year for COVID when hiring tanked because the economy went south real badly. Companies simply stopped hiring to wait and see how bad the pandemic would affect business and the economy in general around the world.

Now we throw another fact out there…yeah, it gets worse. The 2025 hiring was the second worse since 2008/2009 (Bush’s last year in office). Why is that important? 2008/2009 was the global economic crisis…and a partial economic collapse here in the US.

Bottom line…2025 was a terrible year for the economy…terrible! Prices continued to rise, rising even more than the end of the previous administration. Hundreds of billions of dollars were sucked out of the private economy by the US government via huge increases in tariffs. Also, the unemployment rate rose from 4% in Jan 2025 to 4.4% in Dec 2025. That means about 680,000 fewer people employed in 2025 vs the end of 2024. That is horrible when you think about the overall economic impact. Yeah, that’s just at $44billion in income/wages taken out of the US economy by people no longer working and earning an income.

Folks…please pray that 2026 is a better year for the US economy than 2025 was. Yes, I think we can survive another economically devastating year like 2025…but how many more, I don’t know. All it will take is one minor hiccup and it collapses. And that is especially true with the intense domestic unrest we are experiencing right now.

For additional insight think about this…

The following companies have announced 2026 store/location closings in the US: Macy’s, Kroger, Walgreens, Wendy’s, JCPenny, Saks Off 5th, Yankee Candle, Orvis, REI, Foot Locker, GameStop, and Carters. Also, Big Lots has filed for bankruptcy. The total number of stores/locations closed is not clear…estimates are close to a couple thousand (+/-).

There are a number of downsides; 1) commercial property values will decline due to abandoned storefronts, 2) tax revenue to local and state governments will decline, 3) unemployment will shoot up.

#3 is the one that I really worry about. With thousands of stores/locations closing you could be looking at additional unemployment of 50,000 – 100,000 people directly or indirectly. That is huge! Then consider the ripple affect in the broader economy. You could easily be talking 10’s of billions of dollars lost in the economy. And that is just from this singular event.

Our economy in a wreck…a disaster…a catastrophic event waiting to happen. It has gotten worse over the last year according to facts, stats, and evidence. And 2026, according to projections, appears it will be even worse.

Folks…pray and get ready.

And let’s not forget projected AI job loses in 2026…

AI industry experts are estimating a minimum of 100,000 job loses in 2026 due to AI replacement. While the exact projected figure is unclear, some experts are warning it could be up to a million jobs lost. The descriptors from experts are a bit more unsettling…

“AI is expected to significantly impact the job market, particularly affecting lower-level white-collar roles…”

“The ‘Godfather of AI’ warns 2026 will bring a new wave of job losses.”

The worst hit positions…Administration, Customer Service, Production, Legal, Education, and Management.

This event could also signal an additional ripple effect of 10’s of billions of dollars hit to the US economy.

Let’s not ignore a little tidbit…

Remember the Fed lowered interest rates in 2025 three times? The Fed only lowers rates when they see an economy in trouble right then…and in the near-term (6mons – 1 year). And the Fed is already signaling at least two rate cuts in 2026.

 

 

US Federal Government Economic Info…
  • Jan 1, 2025 – Dec 31, 2025 US debt grew from $36.trillion to $38.4trillion
  • Fiscal Year 2025 budget deficit was $1.8trillion
  • Fiscal Year 2026 budget deficit is running about $200billion per month
  • Interest on US national debt is expected to top well over $1trillion in 2026

Thankfully we are not looking at the likes of a $3.1trillion deficit as we had in 2020!!!  (President Trump & COVID crisis)

WARNING ! ! > > > President Trump has proposed a greater than 50% increase in the military budget for Fiscal Year 2027…$1.5trillion total. Why the massive increase? I am not sure, but history shows that those kinds of increases only occur in war times, preparation or actual. FY2027 is only 9 months away.

NOTE #1: That military increase added to projections of regular US Budget deficits would drive it to a new total budget deficit of around $2.3trillion and accelerating the US Nation Debt to approximately $41 – $43trillion dollars by the end of FY2027…or 130% of GDP.

FYI…national debt to GDP ratio of 80% begins negative impacts on a country’s economy. 100% of GDP is dangerous territory for any country’s economy. The US has already exceeded 100% of GDP. You can figure out what 130% of GDP might do and what the economy might look like by the time it hits.

Note #2: Certainly you’ve heard/seen the stratospheric rise in the price of gold, yes? on 1/14/2025 gold was at $2673 per ounce, on 1/12/2026 gold was at $4630. That’s a 73% increase in just under a year. Gold is seen as 2 things; 1) a hedge against inflation (minor) and global unrest (major), 2) a “predictor”. A predictor is something/someone that foretells the future. What happened 6 day after 1/14/2025? What has happened since then? Why do you think gold has jumped 73% in the last year? Look closely, think clearly, set bias aside.

Just in case you wanted to know…”Imperialism”

  • The extension of a nation’s authority by territorial acquisition or by the establishment of economic and political dominance over other nations.
  • A political doctrine or system promoting such extension of authority.
  • The power or character of an emperor; imperial authority; the spirit of empire.

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2 thoughts on “Let the numbers ring !”

  1. Your post has a lot of things going on, which has preoccupied my mind as well, not only with the previous Biden regime, but the past year as well.
    The economy is but one aspect. And, true enough, the previous four years were just disastrous – but the past year hasn’t really helped either.
    When economies begin to tank, the quick proven method to distract the population is to go to war. We have been on an intentional self-destructive dive with the previous democrat administrations, but to continue on with the same old business as usual defense procurement is absolute disaster. Having a mindset focused on previous conventional wars a well as limited campaigns (still unsuccessful with minor states like Afghanistan and Yemen) will not get us to where we need to be. And for example, the new “Trump” class of battleships is going to end up the same way as the battleship era ended in World War II. I thought we were learning from all of the scams going on in Minnesota and Ohio. I guess not. (And although there will be a lot of money being spent, it probably will have little effect because most of it will not see the light of day before things will get “kinetic.”

    Anyway, I do believe that we are now entering a new era of conflict, which also reminds me of some of the old Vietnam War era songs. (I guess that this dates me)
    Emerson, Lake and Palmer’s Lucky Man comes to mind. https://thegreatestsongs.com/lucky-man-emerson-lake-palmer/
    And Country Joe and The Fish Vietnam Song as well (a bit crude at the start) https://www.lyricsondemand.com/country_joe_and_the_fish/vietnam_song
    For which the chorus was:
    and its 1,2,3 what are we fightin for?
    don’t ask me i don’t give a dam, the next stop is Vietnam,
    and its 5,6,7 open up the pearly gates. Well there aint no time to wonder why…WHOPEE we’re all gunna die.

    I don’t want to appear pessimistic, I just want to be realistic. And I am a veteran. There is going to be a lot of pain ahead of us. I just don’t want to see it be self-inflicted.

    But I guess that that is the plan.

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