>>> CRITICAL – Keep your eyes open and be careful !

I had to put some articles on hold due to my assessing some deep information. There are some things afoot that could be game changing…for the worse…way worse…and soon.

It is imperative that you keep your eyes open, head on a swivel, and maintain serious Situational Awareness. Do not allow those you really care about to go out alone in public places…especially in big cities…or anywhere in California.

This coming weekend could be very dangerous starting Friday night. In major cities police have all but totally abandoned trying to keep civilians safe.

If you are a conceal carry person…do NOT carry your weapon in a purse or fanny pack. Carry your weapon ONLY on your person…and securely.

Avoid crowds at all costs. Be extremely careful of any public event, especially in big cities or California.

I will expand on this once I have completed by research/assessment. At this point I just want to issue a warning and not delay warning you of the danger right now.

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AI, ML, DOD, & US Secret Police Agencies

As I have been warning you about for years…there is now proof-positive evidence the US Government is now actively involved in spying on every American, using AI/ML (artificial intelligence / machine learning) to search for “threats” and then to counter those threats in operations…called “mitigation”…and there are no limits to what those measures/operations will/could be.

The Federalist in a March 21st article revealed all the details and evidence outlining this previously covert operation against US citizens. They even cited the contracts and companies involved in the public/private partnerships with the US government. And yes, this is in direct opposition to the US Constitution and Bill of Rights. The details show that the US government is monitoring “every conceivable mode of conversation.” That includes:

  • news sites,
  • blogs,
  • social media platforms,
  • podcasts,
  • TV and radio,
  • email newsletters,
  • newspapers,
  • militant groups,
  • social networks,
  • messaging apps,
  • RSS feeds
  • peer-to-peer messaging platforms,
  • forums,
  • “gray” propaganda sites,
  • the dark web,
  • Telegram app,
  • Reddit app,
  • Discord app,
  • all publicly captured images.

So anything and everything that is on the Internet, or uses the Internet, will be captured and analyzed by AI and ML, communications identified as a potential threat, and then mitigation operations launched against those potential threats…ALL without human intervention!

Look one more time at the last item on the list above…”all publicly captured images.” That means any image that is on the Internet will be captured and analyzed. But it doesn’t stop there…ANY image that is in the public domain will be included. That means ANY image via traffic cams, street cams, city observation cams, store cams, etc. will be included in this effort. We will be China…Communist China…actually, as of now, we are Communist China.

I have repeatedly warned you that our country…the United States of America…is lost, it has fallen, we are an authoritarian state…a police state.

Now that the US government has made its intentions and operations against US citizens clearly, factually, known…we now clearly know what we are dealing with…and the wide-spread treason involved in this throughout the government and technology companies.

Act accordingly, make informed decisions, and please…I ask you seriously…read the Declaration of Independence. Download a copy, print it out, print multiple copies, study it, understand it. Please pay particularly attention to the first two paragraphs. Let me say that again…pay particularly attention to the first two paragraphs.

Have you figured out who you are, what your principles are, where your red lines are, and are you truly, actually willing to stand by those principles…no matter what…no matter the price.

“And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm Reliance on the Protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.”


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> Revised January 2023 < This is the third revision of this article and series.

Now that we have gone over the basic categories of post-disaster personalities, let’s talk for a minute of a couple of situations that may occur, called “hybrids”. If you didn’t read yesterday’s post…now is a good time to do so before we move on.

Hybrids will start out as one personality type and morph into another; possibly without the person themselves even being aware of their true nature to begin with. And, folks may morph more than once.

This morphing will generally not be to the betterment of the person, or the people around them. Probably the most common morphing will occur would be considered unintentional morphing or situational morphing. Meaning they change but it is due primarily to circumstances and it is unintentional in the fact that there was no conscious awareness of who they were prior to grid-down but have to change in order to survive.

I consider all morphing to be towards their true self, who they really are deep inside. It will be a stripping away of the layers that have hidden their true nature.

Another type of hybrid will be a latent personality who knows exactly who they really are inside but they are waiting for the right time to let their real personality surface. They will have disguised themselves, their true personality, to avoid others from detecting who they really are. Again, the morphing will not be considered a “good” change, and these will probably be the most dangerous of the morphing individuals in a post-grid-down environment.

There will also be those that do morph into something better but this will be extremely rare. Example: some sheep will become sheepdogs, some sheepdogs may become shepherds.

Gang thug changed his life around.

Even an owner/master may repent, change their nature, and become a sheepdog or shepherd.

And yes, some herding dogs may even become sheepdogs. But rarely, herding dogs are simply too used to power, authority, and control of others; their lust for control is simply too strong to overcome.

I think all of those “betterment” morphings will be very rare, generally speaking. But within this category the primary change will be sheep into sheepdogs. This I believe will be due to the general good nature of many folks who are currently just going through life trying to do the right things such as being good parents and spouses, going to work, and watching out for neighbors.

I think that particular evolutionary personality type, sheep to sheepdog, may be more prominent than anticipated. Society today does everything it can to eliminate any sheepdog tendencies…in favor of simply being compliant sheep. Today’s Progressive, liberal, Democrat/Republican society wants sheep not sheepdogs, they want compliance not challenges. But the underlying goodness of many people will not be denied, many may become sheepdogs when needed…just don’t count on it being a widespread phenomena.

Interestingly, those same cabal people on the left, plus Republicans, coupled with the law & order freaks, want to develop herding dogs…as long as the herding dogs do their masters’ bidding and are controllable. When herding dogs step outside of that box then they become the enemy to be crushed…or at least “defunded.”

All that being said, hybrids, generally speaking, could be very dangerous to deal with because they are unpredictable and have the capacity to be extremely violent while implementing the element of surprise.

A wolf in sheep’s clothing –

We’ve all heard that expression before, and there is good reason for it. These types of people are readily prevalent in current daily life, and they will definitely be present, and even more apparent, in any post-apocalypse wolf in sheep's clothingexistence. First off, this will be a person that is well versed in deception, such as lying, deflection, and misdirection.

They may, and probably do, currently deceive those around them every day in their marriage, their work, their personal relationships, their religious/church life, and/or their interactions with people in general. They are probably going to be business people, especially sales people, also government workers and politicians.

The key ingredient that keeps them from surfacing quickly as a predator is their potential lack of power or lacking in confidence, in successfully getting away with openly predatory behavior in today’s society.

In a post grid-down scenario that lack of power could come in the form of lack of support from people (i.e. weak group, or lack of respect) or lack of resources (i.e. food, weapons, etc.). It boils down to they just don’t have enough “juice” at first.  They may, and probably will, recognize that fact and bide their time as they acquire enough power and resources to attempt a successful morph.  Only then they would feel confident that they are ready to make their move against fellow flock members. Consequently, this person will likely try to keep a low profile to ensure not being easily or quickly identified too soon. They know that if they are identified too soon, before they had/have sufficient power, that they would suffer retribution or punishment. They won’t want to risk their current situation/status until they feel they have a high probability of success.

This person will be the one that most likely steals from an individual family or the group they belong to.

wolf in sheep's clothing.

Bradley Stone & wife – less than 1 year before he killed her and 5 other family members.

They will be capable of selling out (betraying) their own patrol to an enemy force if they think there is sufficient reward for doing so (i.e. acquiring status in a new, more powerful, group). They will most likely be identified only after a period of time where a number of the individual’s acts can finally be connected to crimes or betrayals.

This is a very dangerous individual because they will keep escalating their types of crimes until they are forcibly stopped. This person could well be a rapist and/or abuser. And they will also stop at nothing to avoid being caught or punished. This most likely would be a person that would kill sheepdogs and shepherds to avoid being held accountable.

Wolf masquerading as a SheepDog –

Within a group there is a very real possibility that a “wolf” could masquerade as a sheepdog. In this case they will portray themselves as powerful and not to be trifled with. They will be both defensive and aggressive, Herding dog disguised as a sheep dogappearing to be a strong Type A personality, above reproach, and not to be challenged.

Watch for signs of them making lewd and inappropriate comments about members of the opposite sex. They are most likely to be males and come from a profession where they had power, virtually unquestioned authority. If a particular “wolf in sheepdog’s clothing” is a law enforcement person, they probably had a history of citizen complaints against them, including sexual harassment and/or “use of force” complaints. They may also hide behind religion. They may appear as a “defender of the faith” and criticizing/condemning a person as not being religious enough, or not agreeing with their version of religious beliefs. In this particular situation think…”Taliban-like” behavior.

This is a very dangerous person and a very dangerous situation for a number of reasons. First, they probably have some competent skills…especially if they come from a law enforcement or military background. Second, they understand tactics and the advantage of timing. Thirdly, they understand, and are probably very good, at social engineering; meaning they know how to manipulate people.

Do not underestimate the potential danger from these types of people. While still under the guise of being a sheepdog they can get people to lower their guard making it easier to take advantage of them when the time is right for their true purposes. The same thing could be said when applied to the entire group…they let their guard down collectively.

Once this person is discovered they are even more dangerous and the situation is particularly volatile. The now exposed wolf will try to maintain their false persona at all costs. Failing that, they will lash out, probably violently so. Due to this propensity to commit extreme violence and their skills do so so, they must be dealt with quickly and decisively. They will likely be irredeemable due to their exaggerated ego, narcissism, and view of self aggrandizement; in other words…no humility. They almost assuredly see the situation as “survival of the fittest”…their survival.

A herding dog masquerading as a SheepDog –

This could be a very hard, probably the hardest, situation to recognize. These two types dogs are very similar and appear to have the same goal, protecting the flock. But the herding dog’s desire and intent is to “control” the flock more than protect it.

A herding dog that is hiding in the guise of a sheepdog will probably complain about the lack of discipline within the group, lack of use of force, lack of weapons, lack of ammunition, or lack of offensive tactics/actions, etc. They will likely promote more use of force, especially when dealing with external threats. They will likely volunteer for the more dangerous tasks/missions or where violence would most likely be used or required.

They can come from a military background, but normally not a successful, respected, or rewarding career in the military. The most probable of backgrounds would be troubled law enforcement personnel. A person who felt underappreciated and/or underutilized in their military or law enforcement role.

Most law enforcement personnel, by a large margin, currently are herding dogs; some very aggressively so.

Cop brutally kicks handcuffed woman.

Cop brutally kicks handcuffed woman.

The law enforcement personnel that will normally be the most aggressive will tend to be younger, 20’s & early 30’s, or older late 50’s+ towards the end of their career. Currently and post grid-down they will tend to be single, muscular from strenuous physical training and/or steroid use. The steroid users will be the most dangerous subset of this group due to the resulting and increased aggression from steroids’ chemical makeup.

Law enforcement personnel are trained in, and function daily in, an unquestioned/unchallenged authority system. And they expect instant compliance from those they deal with in daily life…comply or die…comply or at least get beat-up really good.

They are also used to large supporting systems (i.e. fellow officers, courts, other agencies, unions, etc.) to back them up regardless of the situation. Subsequently, they will most likely expect unquestioned support from the flock and leadership regardless of their actions. This group of personality types will be very susceptible to being influenced by an owner/master or wolf hiding among the flock. They will gravitate to them because they crave and respect power and authority…and they are willing to “fit in” with that tougher crowd (brotherhood), including committing violence. They will strongly desire to once again operate within their previous environment of power and authority, while being respected…or at least feared.

Officer Jackie Neal handcuffs and rapes teenager.

San Antonio police Officer Jackie Neal, 11 year veteran police officer, was in uniform and on-duty when he groped, handcuffed and raped a teenager.

All the while they will be thinking and saying their actions are for the good of the flock, that they know best, their actions are to protect and serve. This individual can be extremely dangerous and vicious if confronted and challenged, especially if punishment/discipline is attempted. Once this “herding dog” person is exposed and challenged they will become very defensive and susceptible to wolf morphing.  If the group continues trying to hold them accountable, this personality type can become extremely dangerous and violent…a huge singular threat to the flock. Their greatest threat may come from them feeling betrayed…as that may force them to seek another group/flock…and then lash out at the former group/flock as retribution.

An owner/master in sheep’s clothing –

This person is similar to a “wolf in sheep’s clothing” and must be watched for with great vigilance.
This person can be very dangerous overall to the group in many forms. Left unchecked, they will think that

Charles Manson Family

Nice family!

whatever power-grabbing scheme they are hatching is working if they just do it long enough.  They will feel certain that they can achieve their goal of becoming an owner/master no matter who stands in their way or what they do in the process.

One key indicator will be they will tend to be a primary or regular source of conflict. Not a “complaining” type of conflict nor assertively offering alternatives.  But these people will be more playing one person off against another in order to create doubt in people’s minds of someone, probably the group leader.

In others words…regularly creating conflict against or between people, especially leadership.Think of the term “playing politics” or “playing mind games” to get a better understanding of this personality.

This person is likely to lay low with the sheep until they can put together a sufficient power base and then they will move against existing leadership. They may try to gain some control over, or at least associate with, herding dogs so they can have an opportunity to identify current or potential allies.

Charles Manson Family

Charles Manson years later. This “not so nice family” brutally killed 7 people.

They would then use deception, promises of power and other rewards to lure current or potential herding dogs into doing their bidding. Once a latent owner/master has established himself, he is likely to attempt (and succeed in) surrounding himself with herding dogs, or “wannabe” herding dogs. He may also be successful in attracting some “wolves in sheep’s clothing” as well. But this is likely to only occur should he appear to have a high probability of maintaining and growing his power.

Herding dogs won’t want to be on the losing side of group dynamics. And anyone he allies himself with will only be “tools” for him to use…then discarded as needed/required.

The “wolves in sheep’s clothing” would most likely be his “secret weapon”, kept hidden while doing his dirty work for him, such as creating additional group conflict. That would be different than his use of herding dogs which he would use as tools of intimidation. Once found out, a latent or rising owner/master is not likely to willingly give up his power base…or give up his quest for power and leadership.

They may feign a “surrender” move or appear repentant if needed, but it will only be a deception to buy him more time to grow stronger and improve his chances of success later…and to avoid discipline or punishment.

Once a latent owner/master makes a move against existing leadership he will be hard to deal with. This will be true due to his knowing he will likely only have one real chance to establish himself as the new leader and absorb the associated power. He will place all of his efforts and resources into play once he makes his move.

Watch for a hidden/secret resource he keeps in reserve to be his “stop gap” or “last resort” option…kinda like an “October surprise” in politics. But this hidden/reserve resource will be one capable of almost unchecked violence.

Hybrid Summary –

In the last post on this subject I went over identifying post-disaster personality types in today’s world by occupation and personality signs.  Being able to recognize the potential typical personality types is important to good Situational Awareness (SA).  It is even more important to know about the “hybrids” and the danger associated with them.  Don’t be blind-sided…be informed and aware…be ready.

Healthy inter-personal relationships are difficult in normal times for hybrids; they will become exponentially more so when you are talking post-disaster. If we are talking TEOTWAWKI it will be difficult to figure out who these people really are and what they are capable of. The reason being is our normal personal and societal boundaries, limitations, rules and morals will be absent post grid-down for the most part, whether in actuality or only perception.

You, as well as all those in your family and/or group, will need to be hyper-vigilant in assessing people on a regular basis, especially “new-comers.” Become familiar with the signs and symptoms of sociopaths and psychopaths…then don’t ignore them or rationalize them when spotted in a member of your group…or another group you interact with.

You will have to establish baseline behaviors for each person and then watch for deviations from that baseline. Situational Awareness of people, including your own people, will have to be spot-on to recognize deviant behavior.  Or you may suffer by missing signs that could point to personality shifts (a.k.a. morphing). Worse yet, you could miss the signs that a person falls within one of the dangerous hybrids mentioned above to begin with. Be careful, very careful.


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POST-DISASTER PERSONALITIES : Part 2 – How to Identify Them In Today’s World

> Revised January 2023 < This is the third revision of this article and series.

Identify personality types during emergenciesSecond post in a 5-parts series. Make sure you read yesterday’s post to more fully understand today’s post.

So how exactly do you identify who in a post-collapse is what type of person in today’s world? There is no exact science to accomplish that…and it can be rather subjective. Well, on the other hand, this “identifying” might not be real hard in some situations but it can be challenging and very tricky in others.

Yes, this is generalizing people into broad categories, while in reality each person is different and unique…to a point.  Not all people may fit into these generalized descriptions, but it is a starting place.  It is however a good beginning on identifying folks and what they look like today to know what they may look like in “grid-down”…

Sheep –

This category will be the largest category of people, I am thinking upwards of 80%, maybe more, of all people. This is a pretty easy category to recognize now. Almost to a person those that will become sheep are the Sheeple - welfare and government handoutsbasic progressives, liberals and political Democrats. Also, anyone who is a big supporter of the government or the “law & order” freaks (that includes most Republicans and Conservatives) will generally fall into this category.

Obviously, anyone who currently receives government handouts will continue that mentality and expect to continue to receive those handouts…disaster or not. Also, this category will contain almost all of your neighbors, fellow church congregants, neighbors, and community members. Virtually all academics (all grade levels, including college professors), many doctors, and most professionals are in this category.

Some folks in sales may be excluded from this generalization due to a potential present day aggressive personality. Some people, such as doctors and academics, may start out thinking they are herding dogs or owner/masters, maybe even sheepdogs; but will soon be relegated to sheep status due to lack of survival skills and/or proper physical preparations. So don’t let current profession or academic status fool you into thinking they will be something special. Obviously medical doctors will be “special” due to their skills alone, but little more than that.

The sheep are not a bad thing!  Sheep can be very productive after a grid-down has hit because there are plenty of tasks and chores that need done; sheep are perfectly capable of performing work such as manual labor and organizational tasks.  They can also perform supervisory responsibilities to a point.  But do not expect the sheep to stand up on their own to defend themselves or others; for the most part it is simply beyond their capability. These “sheep” are your fellow citizens and probably family members as well. And…regardless…if you are a shepherd or sheepdog you have some responsibility to care for sheep.

Predators (wolves) –

This is also a fairly small category of folks, probably somewhere in the 10% range. They are also likely to be easily recognized. They are low-lifes now and will be low-lifes post-disaster.  They are the criminals of today, Predators gang members wolveswith rare exception, regardless of their incarceration status.

One notable exception will be someone who is otherwise a “sheep” in today’s world but sees the benefit of being a predator once it becomes clear that it gives them power in a post grid-down scenario.

There are far more male predators than female predators. But the true Alpha or Beta female predators are seriously dangerous and ruthless. Sexual predators abound…even Sexual predators during grid-down and emergenciesdressed in Dockers. They try to leverage their resources to take advantage of people for physical gratification. However, should trickery fail to work they will often resort to outright violence to get their sexual gratification and other needs met.

Some predators are some sales people today, albeit not many. If a salesperson is truly aggressive today, that may carry forward to post grid-down. But, they may also fall into the “wanna-be” category as well. And yes, there are some bad cops who are solidly in this category, mostly at the federal level but also at the state and locals levels as well.

Herding Dogs –

This is a somewhat tricky category due to their close resemblance to sheepdogs. This category represents about a 2 – 4% portion of the population.  Herding dogs will generally be Type A personalities but not strong most cops are herding dogsleaders when you look under the surface. They will most likely be manipulators vs leaders. In reality they are more likely to be along the lines of a Beta male/females in today’s world. Many military, current and former, will probably fall into this category. Same would be true for law enforcement officers.

Position in their organizational food chain will not usually determine herding dog status. For instance, a deputy sheriff from a small county department is more likely to not be a herding dog, but a sheepdog. Whereas, LEOs from large police departments and state LEO agencies, and virtually all LEOs from all federal agencies, will almost certainly be herding dogs…maybe even wolves if truth be told.

These folks will attempt to sound noble and will probably be very convincing but their herding instincts are there Cops will commit violence as herding dogs when they want to.and can be seen in their current daily jobs/activities. Those negative herding traits usually display themselves quickly when dissent is voiced or their authority is challenged.

Herding dogs will not tolerate having their authority challenged, especially by anyone they see as a sheep. By default they do not like sheepdogs due to the sheepdogs’ closer relationship with, and dedication to, the sheep. The loyalty of sheepdogs is also seen as an inferior trait by herding dogs.

Herding dogs try and control sheepdogs by whatever current authority they have. Herding dogs respond to command authority in today’s world, and they readily accept being told what to do, and rarely (if ever) question authority. They will only feel secure and safe when they are in control of a situation and in control of others beneath them.

A common way to identify a herding dog is to listen for, “Hey I don’t make the laws I just enforce them.” or “I was just following orders.” Both statements show intense weakness of character and lack of morals and ethics…and a strong disposition to be a herding dog.

SheepDogs –

This can be a tricky category of folks to identify in today’s world. Sheepdogs are a very small percentage of today’s population; maybe less than 1%, maybe much less. Failing to recognize sheepdogs in today’s world is Sheep dog rescuing childdue mostly to two reasons; 1) many sheepdogs in today’s world are low-profile, you simply don’t see them acting as a sheepdog, 2) some of today’s herding dogs are actually sheepdogs but that sheepdog characteristic won’t manifest itself until the “owner/master” of today disappears after grid-down.

Some sheepdogs in today’s world are looked at by sheep as “extremists”, “nuts”, “kooks”, “tea party members” or similar labels. Some sheepdogs are seen in today’s world as, and labeled as “heroes” but not always. Sheepdogs are generally very humble, don’t want the spotlight, and willing give the recognition and praise to others.

Progressives, liberals, and Democrats…and most Republicans…in general hate the concept of sheepdogs because they embrace, and far prefer, Sheep dogs may be militia membersherding dogs. Progressives, liberals, democrats, and republicans love sheep, they want everyone to be sheep with the exception of herding dogs (if they, and they only, can control the herding dogs). And yes, some Progressives, liberals and Democrats, and most Republicans, see themselves in the roles of herding dogs and owner/masters; all Progressives do for sure…99.9999999% of politicians see themselves as herding dogs also. And that is why they have a natural enmity towards sheepdogs and shepherds.

Most sheepdogs will normally keep to themselves until they are needed. Not always, but commonly, they are the person helping to change a tire on the side of the road, Some cops can be sheep dogs but very few.they are the person carrying groceries for an old lady, they are the ones helping mow an elderly neighbor’s grass or shoveling the snow off their walks. The reason I said “not always” is because predators will also use those acts of apparent kindness and helpfulness as a tactic to engage potential prey (i.e. social engineering). The difference is a sheepdog does it because it is the right thing to do, a herding dog does it because he was trained, or told, to do it…and a predator does it because it is one way to gain access to prey.

Owner/Masters –

This is an easily identifiable group in today’s world. Mostly they are politicians, community leaders, media celebrities, and heads of businesses (mostly large corporations). They tend to be rich and include all of theOwner/Master country’s elite old-money families, and most of the new-money families as well.

However, they can also be low-level bureaucrats and mid-level government employees. These are people who currently have some authority and feel they are entitled to special treatment and specially entitled being able to control others. They see themselves as natural leaders in today’s world as their right and destiny.

For the most part:

    • They expect special treatment; most of the time they demand it.
    • They are used to having their way, either through paying for it or intimidating for it.
    • They feel that they are superior in intellect and capability to everyone else.
    • They generally drive the fancy cars, live in large and expensive houses, and take extravagant vacations.
    • They lust for power and money; and want as much of both as they can acquire.

With exceptions doctors and academics will more than likely start out in this category but will soon find themselves lumped in with the sheep. Probably the largest identifiable group of people in today’s world that will become owner/masters are some military leaders, some law enforcement, and most of all – politicians at Owner/MaOwner/Master manipulating herding dog.ster manipultating herding dog.the federal and state level. Many politicians at the local levels will be in this category but by a smaller relative percentage compared to federal and state politicians.

Generally, these folks already have a power base of one kind or another. They actively engage…currently and post-grid-down…in expanding their existing power base any possible way they can…usually through money and flattery.

One of the “groups” that are the most dangerous are unions, particularly unions that have been known for violence such as teamsters, miners, and pipe-fitters…to a lesser degree public employee and police unions. These groups have large powerful bases and existing leadership that will see themselves as naturals for the owner/master role…since they already see themselves in that role.

Shepherds –

This is the rarest of person in today’s life and especially after a “grid-down” has occurred. They are a small fraction of 1% of the population. Most people will be mainly concerned with survival and that means securing Shepherdresources and power. Shepherds are not interested in either.

The focus of a shepherd, almost exclusively, is and will be the protection of a flock. There will be no desire to be exalted above the sheep, any indication to the contrary will indicate that you are probably dealing with an owner/master NOT a shepherd.

Shepherds will recognize sheepdogs and appreciate them and be grateful for their support. Shepherds also are generally able to recognize herding dogs and the inherent danger they represent. Shepherds will most likely try to convert herding dogs into sheepdogs. They will probably be successful to some degree in this and exhibit great patience in this effort. However, the converted herding dogs may well turn on the shepherd should adverse situations, or opportunity for personal gain, present themselves.

The archenemy of the shepherd is the owner/master. If a latent owner/master is a member of the shepherd’s flock they will probably do one of two things; 1) make a play to unseat the shepherd from their leadership position, 2) try to bring in outside influence or bargain with a neighboring owner/master to overthrow the shepherd.

Shepherds’ behaviors and actions should never be confused with any form of cowardice. A shepherd will be ferocious in defending the flock and will do anything within moral and ethical bounds to do so. A shepherd who has been a sheepdog, especially a trained sheepdog, is very competent and able to defend the flock.

A shepherd is normally cautious with their own ego and desires. Should a shepherd begin to place his own needs and wants above the welfare and needs of the flock, they normally rather quickly slip over into the category of owner/master. And they unfortunately turn into a very capable and brutal owner/master since the moral and ethical foundation will have been removed. Rare (extremely) will be a true shepherd who converts to an owner/master.

In summary…a shepherd will earn your trust and deserve it. Give your trust freely to a true shepherd…then defend them.

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> Revised January 2023 < This is the third revision of this article and series. In late 2022 and early 2023 I did extensive updating and editing on this series of articles. It is of great importance that we understand who we are dealing with after a disaster or grid-down event…and I am talking of a TEOTWAWKI as well. If we fail to understand who people really are, who they are inside, and what they are capable of…well, we are at their mercy. And human nature in extremely tough times can be ruthless…and fatal. Educate yourself on the personality types referred to in this series of articles. Be watchful and careful, humans by nature want to trust…and the bad guys know this…and know how to play you.

Post disaster personality types.Have you ever given much thought to the type of people there will be walking around after an emergency or disaster occurs?

I have wondered that…a lot. And, over the last 40 years through my work as a first responder I have seen them first hand. I’ve also worked with them as fellow responders so I know them generally and individually.

Then again, have you ever thought much about what label to put on people after a “grid-down” event? Yup, right again, I have. And that is the point of this series of posts – What kind of people will there be after “grid-down”, which will be notably different than those after a more simple emergency or disaster.

Oh, you are not comfortable putting a label on people? So, you don’t believe in Situational Awareness (SA)?

Observing people and assessing their threat level is a key aspect of SA; then label them accordingly is just plain commonsense. Then once properly identified, acting accordingly could well keep you and your family alive. So you are not really judging people, you are assessing, the best you can, their potential behavior and the impact that potential behavior could have on you and your family.

Maybe a more fair question would be…Can how people act now influence/predict how they will act after grid-down? Is there some way to predict or identify who they “will be” or “might be” based on who they are now?

Based on what I’ve seen firsthand I have put a lot of thought into this unique phenomena and how it might affect survival post-grid down. I mean, come on, the biggest risk you will face after a “grid-down” will be the threat, or risk, of violence. But violence will come primarily from people. So you have to understand people to understand their potential for violence.

I believe the “types” of people will breakdown into a short list of categories:

  • sheep
  • shepherds
  • predators (wolves)
  • sheepdogs
  • owners/masters
  • herding dogs
  • mass murderers (added in January 2023)

The trick is trying to figure out which category people fit into and who is the most dangerous…both now and in the future. Based on that challenge I did a little reflection on my experience with emergencies and disasters and how people, victims and responders, acted during those events. Then I compared it back to what I knew of them before the emergency or disaster. That way I think I can make some general assumptions of what people are like now and project/guesstimate what kind of people they may become, or how they will act, after grid-down. Remember, this is all in general terms about people generally speaking…and solely my opinion.

Let me describe what I think are the personality attributes of people after grid-down:

Sheep – 

These are the folks are easily identified, they are the folks who are basically lost, unprepared, having no clue what to do, but overall, decent folks.  Or they may be folks that are prepared in many ways but not prone to be leaders, they are submissive in Most people are sheep.nature, and they are inclined to avoid conflict. Either way, they will be seeking assistance, direction, and leadership…they will actively seek out opportunities to be followers. They will start out benignly and humbly requesting help of any kind and will wait for someone to take care of them and their family. They will not be able to take care of themselves and will panic easily, they will be easily driven by fear and misinformation.

They will also be easily manipulated and controlled. They will have a breaking point, there is no doubt about that. But by then, the majority of them will be mostly useless (unless constantly led and fed) and of little threat or danger.

A small percentage of this group will become dangerous and must be considered as such in direct proportion to their capability to be so. Capability example: access to, and ability to use, weapons. Their greatest weakness will be Normalcy Bias.  Many will be useful, they may be good people who just didn’t have it together in terms of preparedness…or unable to be leaders in their own right.  These sheep can become productive resources in the right group setting with strong and constant leadership. In such a setting some/many may be mostly seen as “high maintenance” individuals.

Predators (wolves) –

These folks are also easy to spot. They will typically be armed, assertive, demanding, and dangerous. They will prey on anyone that they can dominate, or who they can overwhelm by surprise, numbers, or superior Predators / Wolves will prey upon sheep.power. They will have no scruples, morals, or ethical base. They will simply feel entitled to what others have that they themselves lack, or simply want. They will have no reservation to humiliate, hurt, maim, or kill other people. At first they will act fairly independently but will quickly form gangs/packs/tribes with a clear hierarchy that is strictly and violently enforced.

Some wolves will have true predatory skills while others will be purely “posers” and “wannabes” trying to act the part of a predator. The later will be quickly crushed by those who are prepared and capable of resisting, and the “wannabes” who survivor will probably assimilated by the true predators.

All predators will be dangerous regardless of their current weapon status. If lacking weapons they will use cunning, deception, and subterfuge to gain any weaponry they may need or want. Or lacking that level of finesse…they will simply take weaponry by any means available.

For the most part the wolves’ greatest weakness will be their Competency Bias. That will not be true for the upper level apex predators (Tier 1) that will have skills, experience, knowledge, and intelligence. Hence, they will actually be competent…and deadly…true apex predators.

Sheepdogs –

These are folks who will be prepared for emergencies and disasters…and see themselves as protectors of others. Although their level of preparedness will probably vary widely from minimal preparations to multiple-years worth of supplies and appropriate defensive gear.  Some may only have their skills vs. supplies & gear but will Sheep dog guarding and defending the flock of sheep.quickly assume the role of sheepdog because of their inherent desire and self-perception. These folks will be honest of heart and have a true desire to help and protect the sheep.

The “help” may manifest itself in feeding, medical assistance, or training. While sheepdogs may be reluctant to share their supply of food, they will probably step up when sheep need to be protected, but, they may not risk all for others.

However, sheepdogs have been known to attack large packs of predators even when highly out numbered; and have been known giving their lives to protect the lives of their flock.

Sheepdogs will likely be neighbors and community members that have a strong sense of family, community, Sheep dogs don't tolerate predators.and duty. They will most likely be Christians and feel a God-given calling to help take care of and protect people.

Sheepdogs will be highly drawn to shepherds and allow themselves to be led by those shepherds that they truly trust. Sheepdogs will be naturally opposed to owner/masters and will rebel against them. Sheepdogs will generally be tolerant of herding dogs to a point. Sheepdogs will tend to feel that they can change a herding dog into a sheepdog with enough work and being a good example.  However, should a herding dog show too much aggression towards the flock, a sheepdog will not hesitate to attack a herding dog to defend the flock…or the shepherd.

Herding Dogs –

While actual herding dogs might be appear superficially to be sheepdogs, there is a significant difference. Sheepdogs live, eat, and sleep with the sheep; they are part of the flock.  And when necessity calls…sheepdogs will sacrifice themselves for the flock’s protection.

Herding dogs work for the sheep’s Herding dogs are controlled predators NOT sheep dogs.owner/master and respond to their master’s commands. Those commands are given for a specific intention…to strictly to control the flock of sheep. Herding dogs circle the sheep and move them by acting much as a predator would; which in-turn makes the sheep respond to the non-verbal body language of the herding dog (i.e. threat of violence).

A herding dog is actually a predator who is so highly trained that they won’t kill sheep (normally) but will not hesitate to “nip” (i.e. light bite) the back legs of the sheep. Herding dogs are Herding dogs are controlled predators NOT sheep dogs.also known for a game called “sheep tag.”  Herding dogs will run among the sheep biting them and then run off.  To them, sheep are little more than “chew toys.”

Herding dogs are not known for protecting a flock, they are there to control the flocks movement and behavior. And they don’t respond to the needs of the flock and rarely repel approaching predators on their own. They only respond to commands given to them by their master/owner.

Herding dogs will view sheepdogs with contempt and disgust. Herding dogs will see sheepdogs as beneath them in status. Herding dogs will view sheepdogs as lacking skills & intelligence and not living up to their potential.

Herding dogs and sheepdogs will be natural opposites and will have open conflict with one another if the situation presents itself. Herding dogs may/can change allegiance from a flock to a violent pack of predators given certain circumstances.  Should an owner/master not provide enough incentive (or strong enough leadership), a herding dog could be easily persuaded to join a predator pack that promises greater rewards. Should the right set of circumstances present itself, a herding dog could betray an entire flock to a predator pack. A herding dog sees sheep as just another animal or toy, beneath them in status and not truly worthy of anything other than to be controlled.  They have virtually no allegiance to the sheep other than as a means to gain rewards from the owner/master.

Shepherds –

These folks will be few and far between.  They are of high moral and ethical character. They will be leaders of Shepherd watching over his flock.sheep. They will also be the leaders of sheepdogs. They may have the ability to change some herding dogs into sheepdogs, but that will rarely occur due to the natural instincts and desires of herding dogs. Shepherds will understand predators but not hate them. Shepherds will protect the flock from predators to the point of freely giving their lives but not hate predators.

Shepherds will naturally draw sheepdogs to them. Sheepdogs will see the positive leadership traits and “goodness” in a shepherd and want to serve him while concurrently following their instinct of protecting the flock. The sheepdog will see that a shepherd frees them up to concentrate on what they do best – protection.

Shepherds will “serve” their flock. The will make decisions that are in the best interest of the flock and not for The Good Shepherdthe gain of the shepherd himself…or for the exclusive benefit of sheepdogs.

Shepherds will be those folks who will gain close-knit followings of sheep and sheepdogs who are committed to not just surviving, but thriving as a group and as individuals.

Some herding dogs will be drawn to shepherds but will rebel against the nature of the shepherd’s leadership, preferring to control the sheep vs. lead the sheep. For those of us that are believers, we have a great example in “The Good Shepherd” referred to in the scriptures.

Owner/masters –

These folks will be those that have a sense of entitlement to leadership. They will feel it is their right, even their duty, to lead sheep…or everyone for that matter. They will voice that they are doing their best to protect the sheep from harm and danger but their true intentions will simply be to control and manipulate…then benefit from the work and sacrifice of others.

They will make decisions primarily serving their own agenda and gain. Any benefit to the flock will be secondary, incidental, even accidental. However, the owner/master will take great efforts to make the appearance of what they do is completely for the benefit of the flock.

When pushed owner/masters will be ruthless with all members of the flock, including sheepdogs. They will have no trouble sacrificing flock members or sheepdogs for their own gain or protection.

Owner/masters normally will be “pretty boys” who talk good, look good, act good, and smell good…and the like. They will use flowery and/or passionate speeches and quote learned men; they may even use scripture verses to justify what they do. But all they do will be for their own benefit and advancement.

Owner/masters will readily identify herding dogs and elevate the perceived status of herding dogs to control the flock…ruthlessly if they have to. They will reward herding dogs with special privileges such as praise, recognition, food, liberties, and sexual partners. They will provide herding dogs with higher quality food, tools, weapons, and living accommodations.Justifying it by declaring it keeps them strong and ready to defend.

Additionally, the owner/master will provide a sense of “purpose” to the herding dogs. They will touch the herding dog’s sense of duty and work ethic. They will manipulate the herding dog to think they are as noble as a sheepdog, and even superior.

An owner/master will naturally not like sheepdogs; they will see them as competition for leadership. But they will keep that feeling/view hidden from others. They will see in sheepdogs everything that they, as owner/masters, are not. They will try and change sheepdogs into herding dogs. If that is not possible they will try and ostracize them. Should that fail, the owner/master will use whatever means necessary to remove the sheepdogs from the flock. And that will include an owner/master killing the sheepdog should the sheepdog be seen as a big enough threat by the owner/master.

The greatest threat to an owner/master is the shepherd. It is a prime example of the “evil” of an owner/master vs the “good” of a shepherd. Owner/masters will work to destroy shepherds.

So there are the basics of how I see people will fall into the basic post-disaster caste system. I have seen it on smaller-scale disasters (i.e. hurricanes, floods, wildfires, etc.) over the last 40 years or so and I have no reason to believe anything different would happen after a major “grid-down” experience. Actually, I think the likelihood of this caste system occurring increases in direct proportion to the scale of the disaster. And my research of history has lent credence to my view.

There is one additional group of people but I will cover that group in an entirely stand-alone additional article just prior to me publishing the revised summary article in this series.

So what do you do with this information? Where is the value? What does it all mean?

It makes the difference between life and death in all probability. Yeah, potentially that dramatic.

I wrote a series on Situational Awareness (SA) and this information on post-disaster types of people is directly related to good SA. If you don’t know what kind of people to expect then you are likely to get sucked into a bad situation or worse.  In the next post I will cover how to identify the different post-disaster personalities

Next Article in this Series >

All Articles in this Series –

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(__XXX__) Fatigue

Fatigue is a major concern for folks when in the middle of an emergency, disaster, or during a grid-down event. And the longer duration of the incident, the more fatigue and the worse the impact on a person from that fatigue.

But there are different kinds of fatigue. There is; 1) Food Fatigue, 2) Cognitive Fatigue, 3) Decision Fatigue. In this article I will just touch briefly on each…no need for lots of details, you can easily figure it out.

Food Fatigue –

This is a simple one, and you may have already suffered from it. Let’s say the grid went down…and Food Fatigue during emergencies and disasters food storageyou are in day 204. For breakfast you are again eating oatmeal. The eggs, bacon, sausage, pancakes, etc. are long gone…so oatmeal it is! Oh wait, the sugar is gone, the honey is gone, the raisins are gone, the fruit is gone… so it is just plain oatmeal…for the 90th straight morning.

Do you think that might get a little boring?

So for lunch you have soup…containing; dried carrots, wheat berries, and pinto beans…for the 92nd straight lunch.

Then for dinner you have stew…containing; dried carrots, dried onions, wheat berries, and black beans…for the 103rd straight dinner.

Yeah, all the salt, pepper, garlic, and other seasonings ran out 3 months ago. No chocolate, no Pepsi, no sugar, no honey, no candy, no cookies…not much of anything that makes meals and snacks great.

So do you think food and eating gets a little boring? Yeah, I think I do.

Long-term Food Storage to prevent food fatigue, freeze dried foodNow…another couple months later…how you doing? Yeah, that is food fatigue…eating the same boring food day after day. Sure, you are grateful for the food, at least it is something in your belly. But it is drudgery…boredom…and fatigue.

Food Fatigue is easily avoided…store and grow foods/herbs that keep meals interesting, tasty and enjoyable. Keep the ingredients around, or grow/acquire them, to make cookies once in a while. Hideaway some candy for long winter nights. Keep some Spam hidden for that morning you actually have real eggs to cook.

Cognitive Fatigue –

This is a condition that you can probably readily identify with…and more than likely you have already experienced it. Officially it is essentially the process of acquiring knowledge, thinking about it, processing it, coming to conclusions about the knowledge acquired. You could look at it as Situational Awareness overload. Many folks suffer from it at work due to an overload of information and/or tasking…or a very long day working with dummy folks in a stressful situation.

Cognitive fatigue can result in a person shutting down mentally and/or physically. Yup, it can get that bad. It comes from the brain being overloaded with information and its circuit breaker just flips off and a person goes into self-preservation mode mentally.

A good way to help fight cognitive fatigue, and fatigue in general, is to stay hydrated and eat right such as:

  • Foods that are high in omega-3 fatty acids and polyphenols
  • Berries with vitamin C and anthocyanins (blueberries are great)
  • Foods that are high in antioxidants
  • Foods with lots of vitamin B12 (eggs are great)

And you try and get decent rest if at all possible. Allow for some “down time” where sensory input is nonexistent or at least kept to a minimum.

Decision Fatigue –

This is the worst fatigue of all! And so designated for several reasons; 1) it disproportionately affects leaders, 2) it can lead to poor, even fatal, decision making, 3) can ultimately affect a whole group or family.

Decision fatigue is basically a condition where a person has to make too many decisions consistently over too long period of time. It can be a little hard to explain but it is easy to see when it is in front of you.

Say you are dealing with a protracted incident…example…two-weeks. And the leader of the group is constantly making decisions all day…every day…decisions, one after another. It is multiplied by a factor when the situation is, or could be, life-threatening. They have very short nights of sleep because people are constantly coming to them asking for decisions to be made and advice given. Pop! Their head explodes.

The results can be everything from poor decisions to angry outbursts to violence against people. Of course they could also simply shutdown entirely; virtually becoming uncommunicative. And how would any of that work out for the harmony of the group?

One of the reasons why wildland fire personnel are limited to 2-week deployments on fires is this very problem…especially among leadership. A special process is required to extend a deployment to 3-weeks…and it ain’t all that easy to get approved. Why? Because a wildland fire leader (i.e. Division Supervisor, Ops Chief, Type 3 Incident Commander, etc.) has a whole lot of responsibility, works 16 – 18 hours days, and gets asked a ton of questions all day long…not to mention the potential for loss of life and property.

Now imagine food/water shortage, no power, looting, bad weather, no stores open, potential for violence against your family, etc. See the potential for problems when it comes to making hundreds of decisions, great and small, all day long?

Ask anyone who has to, or has been, in a high state of readiness or has to maintain high Situational Awareness for days or weeks straight. It can wear you out. Ever hear the term “1000-yard stare”?

To avoid it you can:

  • Delegate responsibility to qualified people and empower them to make decisions in their area of responsibility.
  • Set aside time where you can be alone, quiet, and contemplative about other things than the situation.
  • Maintain a “larger picture” or maintain an attitude of “the future” and how much better it is going to be.
  • Get as much adequate sleep as possible.
  • Stay hydrated and intake something along the lines of Gatorade (but not more than 1 Gatorade to 2 waters).
  • Eat foods that are high in omega-3 fatty acids and polyphenols.
  • Eat berries with vitamin C and anthocyanins (blueberries are great).
  • Eat foods that are high in antioxidants.
  • Eat foods with lots of vitamin B12 (eggs are great).
Summary –

Cognitive and decision fatigue can kill you…and/or those around you. You have to be able to recognize it, obviously. And from the very start you have to be able to combat it.

Generally speaking:

  • Stay hydrated.
  • Eat as well as possible.
  • Get quality rest if at all possible.
  • Have some down time to yourself. It doesn’t have to be long, just something.
  • Spread the load around to those who are qualified…or can learn quickly.
  • Have a good plan in-place before the incident.
  • Ask others to monitor you for signs of fatigue…and listen to them.

Please don’t ignore food fatigue to keep people happy.

Please don’t ignore cognitive fatigue and decision fatigue to keep people alive.



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FAQ – 10/26/2021

  • You mentioned “Deepfake” quite a while ago, thank you. I heard it is getting worse for potential fraud. What is happening now?


It is getting WAY worse and the potential for abuse is skyrocketing! Yes, there is the normal criminal element involved and they will use it for scamming and other criminal activity. And yes, there is the entertainment industry who are taking advantage of it, but as of yet they are not 100% sure of the legal ramifications involved. But I find their use of it really pretty amazing and ah, entertaining.

Then there is the political aspect of Deepfake. I expect we will see some use of it shortly as we enter the run-up to US elections in 2024. And I think we will see it used internationally in the political arena before we see it appear in the US political scene to any great degree.

Various militaries around the world are training in the technology on how to defend against it…and how to use it offensively to attack another country. The US military appears to be clearly leading the way in this activity.

Where I see one of its most dark potential is in the secret police world. Dark ops players like the USA’s CIA, Russia’s FSB, and China’s MSS will use it to destabilize other countries. The CIA is probably the best equipped to use it and has a long infamous track record of similar operations. More minor players such as North Korea and Iran, maybe even the Ukraine will increasingly use it, but they are not at the competency level of the major players and their usage of it will be more obvious.

The worst and darkest potential I see is with the US Federal Law Enforcement agencies. Those agencies are well-known for fraud, lying, abuse, and outright perjury in courts…especially the FBI <click here to read more>. I believe we will see a substantial use of that technology in the coming years once a whistleblower steps forward to reveal it…such as Edward Snowden, (a true American patriot and hero). Where/when it will be used on a widespread basis will be when the feds see the need to use it against the various serious “revolutionary” movements…and I am not talking BLM or other radical leftist organizations.

And FYI…”Deepfake” now has a more sophisticated name…”Synthetic Media”.

To see a great media piece on Deepfake watch the below

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How to identify REAL misinformation…

AZ responded to a comment on one of my articles. I didn’t allow his comment for several reasons. But let’s explore his comment so we can know how to spot true, actual, and real “misinformation.”


AZ’s comment:

“SO you don’t think FOREIGN MILITARY ARE COMING IN,well you are wrong,I’ve talked to RUSSIAN SPECIAL FORCES AT WALMART,I’VE TALKED TO CHINESE MILITARY COMMANDERS,who said they were traveling around COLORADO looking to see what towns they wanted to be in charge of,AND THE UN MILITARY are coming in by the BUS LOAD from US MILITARY BASES ALL OVER AMERICA,and OH YES I’VE talked to them to,they said we are here to kill stupid americans,well there won’t be any shortage of them,THEIR ARRIVING IN GUTTED OLD MOTORHOMES,the interior was removed and bench seats installed,40-50 in every one,YOU KNOW you best wake up,AMERICA HASN’T TOTALY ENDED,but soon it will have,WHEN THE ATTACK BEGINS,it’ll be a BLOODBATH ,the US MILITARY will be coming DOOR TO DOOR,taking GUNS,BIBLES AND ANY GOLD OR SILVER THEY CAN FIND,That little tid bit came from a NAVY SEAL….”

So let’s get into his statement and figure out what is real and what is not by asking some logical questions. No, I am not going to talk about his “big picture” at all. We will examine the details and then make a judgement call on his big picture at the end.

    1. What were Russian Special Forces Operators (RSFO) doing at Walmart?
    2. How did he spot (RSFO) at Walmart?
    3. And if they were there and he spotted them, why would they talk to him?
    4. And if they talked to him, why would they reveal their mission to him?
    1. What special connection(s) does he have to even know Chinese military commanders?
    2. And if he does know Chinese military commanders, why would they reveal their secret mission to him?
    1. Where are the credible pictures of the busses full of UN troops?
    2. Why aren’t there credible reports of busloads of UN troops on, or leaving, military bases all over America?
  4. I’VE talked to them to,they said we are here to kill stupid americans”
    1. How did he spot them, why did he talk to them, why did they reveal their mission to him, why didn’t they kill him first to prevent them from being exposed? Or at least detain him to prevent revealing their presence and mission?
  5. WHEN THE ATTACK BEGINS,it’ll be a BLOODBATH ,the US MILITARY will be coming DOOR TO DOOR,taking GUNS,BIBLES AND ANY GOLD OR SILVER THEY CAN FIND,That little tid bit came from a NAVY SEAL”
    1. How does he know a Navy SEAL?
    2. Why would a Navy Seal reveal the most top secret of mission information to him?

So, when you look at his statements and begin to ask logical and realistic questions concerning his statements what do you see? Is there a pattern?

Here’s what I say:

  1. I doubt RSFO troops would be in Walmart and be recognizable. They would either not be in Walmart at all or would at least be sufficiently trained to not be noticed. Remember, RSFO troops are the Russian equivalent to our Delta operators.
  2. If a person went up to a RSFO trooper there is absolutely no way they would just stand there openly talking to a stranger about their secret mission to kill Americans
  3. I doubt he knows any Chinese person outside of a Panda Express let alone knowing a Chinese military commander. And if he happened to talk with a Chinese military commander, that commander would not reveal their secret mission to kill Americans.
  4. If there were large quantities of UN troops on military bases, someone would notice and report. If those busloads of UN troops were leaving American military bases someone would notice and report. There has not been a single credible report, let alone multiple reports, of any such activity. If he did find one of these UN troopers, they would not speak to him about their mission to kill Americans.
  5. If he actually does know a Navy SEAL, that SEAL would not reveal top secret information of a major mission against US citizens.

So, when you look at his statements, ask the logical and realistic questions, and then answer those questions objectively and realistically…his statement is pure fantasy.

Well, there is one other option…he is making those statements to purposely create chaos and havoc, or shape opinion of easily influenced people for nefarious purposes.

Whatever the case, this person is writing complete and total misinformation to the degree of absurdity.

Now, and especially in the near future, you must be able to recognize and analyze all information. You must be able to determine whether information is true or not. And even more important…recognize the people who are creating and/or spreading that misinformation and why.

If you fail to do so…you have no, or poor, Situational Awareness…and that could prove fatal to you and/or your family, your congregation, or your community.

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Situational Awareness: Part 8 – Summary

Situational AwarenessA lot has been written in the academic world about Situational Awareness (SA) and most of it would make your eyes glaze over.  The exception would be when the academics fight over what SA actually is, that can be kinda fun to watch.  I am not going to get into the academics of SA because it is mind numbing to say the least.  What I shared with you is practical and how to use it.

SA is the ability to recognize and understand what is happening around you, how it will affect you, and how you use it for a positive outcome.  Well, at least to me, that is my definition of SA.  There is a lot of material, some of it quite good, scattered about the Internet so there is no lack of sources for learning.  But what I want to do is summarize a down-to-earth practical understanding and application of SA from the previous 7 parts of this series.

In any “high-speed, low-drag” situation (high-speed = complex and high stress) there is always a large amount of activity taking place around you.  The key is to acquire, assess applicability, understand the impact incoming information…and then accurately predict the result and then act on it.  That is the SA process.  The successful “outcome” to the SA process is sufficiently manipulating your actions for a positive result for you and your team.

The history of SA goes back 100+ years when aviation was first becoming a tool of war.  Thinking in a three-dimensional world wasn’t really used much prior to WWI because man really didn’t get off the ground very often.  But with the advent of powered flight in a wartime setting SA became a necessity for man if he wanted to stay alive.  Those early pilots had to keep aware of where their fellow pilots and planes were in normal flight operations.  And when they engaged the enemy in aerial combat they had to keep track of multiple enemy aircraft as well.  And not only keep track of them but anticipate what they might do next, where they would be and then act to counter the enemy pilot’s maneuver…then shoot them down before they themselves got shot down. A daunting task! WWII saw SA turned into a formal process for fighter pilots.

In an emergency or disaster situation, and especially in “grid-down”, SA is absolutely imperative.  Good SA will help keep you alive, poor SA will assure failure and potentially bring about injury or death.  What I am saying is SA in normal everyday life can relax a little bit so you are not “on edge” all the time.  The exception would be SA for personal and family safety.  However, when something goes wrong in your world (i.e. emergency, disaster, grid-down) then your SA must be turned up full throttle.  You must maintain that “edge” all the time.

To qualify as good SA you must first be able to “see” what is happening around you.  You must use all your senses to take in all that is happening.  And most importantly you must be able to see these indicators in reality NOT your interpretation of reality.

Example:  Many times during WWII as Jews were being rounded-up they were told it was for their own good/safety and they would be fed when the train stopped.  Unfortunately, the reality was imprisonment and death.

One “sense” I am going to strongly suggest that you always listen to is your “gut”, your instinct, your feelings; whatever you want to call it.  Often your subconscious can discern indicators of danger that escape your normal senses, especially your consciousness.  At times your conscious mind can not properly process certain subtle danger indicators or articulate it so you have the opportunity to think about it.

Also, for those of us that are “believers”, listen to that still small voice that will come to you at times.  That voice will steer you in the direction God feels is appropriate for you at that time.

A good example of that “gut feeling” occurs when you feel something isn’t right and you turn around and someone is staring at you.  Women especially have that instinct…normally used when judging males it is known as the “creep factor.”

So you have all these information inputs coming in, now you must decide which are the most important.  I would suggest you read my post on LIPS  to understand how to determine “priorities” in a preparedness situation.

Example:  Your family is being stalked by a gang of bad guys who want to take your food and daughter.  Your Grid Down Chaos and violence against people are threat and risk to familyinformational inputs are: it is cloudy, it might rain, your feet hurt, you have a small hole in your pants leg, your wife has slung her AR15, the bad guys are gaining on you, your youngest son says he’s hungry, its been 3 days since you had a full nights sleep, your water is running low, and your tooth hurts.  All of these things contribute to SA.  But what are the highest priority information inputs?

To properly absorb SA inputs you have to establish a “baseline” and that baseline will change and continue to change often.

Example:  You are hiking through a wooded area that you think is abandoned.  So you know the smell of the area which might be damp leaves.  And you know the sound of the area which is birds chirping with an occasional squirrel barking and scampering away.  And the area is basically green in color with evergreens being predominant.  Then you notice the birds take wing, a faint waft of smoke smell and a brownish/grayish patch in the trees 100 yards in front of you.  DANGER!!  Your SA just acquired the indicators of a camp where people are now moving around.  What you now do with that change in SA is the key.

Team SA (TSA) can be exponentially more effective that individual SA.  However, it can also be exponentially Team based Situational Awareness - Team SAworse as well.  Keeping track of everything going on with multiple people is virtually impossible for one person, especially in a high-speed situation.  Let me explain…

For TSA to be effective a few things need to be in-place and clearly understood by each team member:

  1. Leader’s Intent
  2. Responsibility of each member
  3. Great communications, specific & assertive
  4. Good individual SA

Basically each team member is using their own individual SA to guide their own actions and assist the other team members in carrying out their respective responsibilities.  Team members must not wait to speak up when they see a problem, or potential problem.  They must deliver that information to the team in short, clear, assertive terms.  That must be done BEFORE the problem affects the team’s successful mission accomplishment.  Probably the best aspect of TSA is the saying “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.”  While the origination of that phrase is debatable, it is no less applicable to a key aspect of Team Situational Awareness.

There are barriers to effective SA, they are:Barriers to team situational awareness.

  1. Normalcy Bias
  2. Competency Bias
  3. Too much motivation
  4. Information/mental overload
  5. Physical/mental fatigue
  6. Distorted reality
  7. False information intake
  8. Poor communications

Barriers to individual SA are items #1 – #7.

The ability to have great SA is a learned skill.  You learn it through training and experience.  With great SA you are far more likely to succeed.  With poor or non-existent SA you are almost certainly doomed to failure…and maybe not even know why you failed.

And during an emergency, disaster, or grid-down…failure is not a valid option. It is all your choice…learn and use SA…or fail. Yes, it is that simple.


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Situational Awareness: Part 7 – OODA (Out of the Loop)

I am out of the loopnote: I think this is one of the single most valuable pieces of information you will ever read for a grid-down event. When the violence is knocking at your door you better understand this concept or you will get killed. Yes, it is that important and I am that serious.

I am sure everyone has heard the saying “I was out of the loop on that” or some variant. Generally it is meant that a person wasn’t aware of something that was going on. However, the origins of the saying is a fascinating story itself. It goes back to the early Col John Boyd OODA Loop air force jet planes fighterdays of the Air Force and a man by the name of John Boyd, a Colonel.

Col. Boyd developed this model to assist the training of military pilots. Dogfights occur at a very high speed in a three-dimensional environment. A pilot must not only have lightning fast physical reflexes, he must be able to out-think his opponent as well. To win a dogfight a pilot must be able to get his plane inside the decision loop of his opponent to line-up a kill shot…and do so without himself being shot down. It is a daunting task in the best of circumstances. And the speeds at which this occurs is unrealistic and unfathomable to most of us mere mortals.

Any high-stress, high-risk environment tends to be high-speed as well, or at least at critical points in time. A person must be able to function in that environment to the point of success. Failure to function successfully in these types of situations can lead to injury or death of yourself or someone else. Boyd developed a system that trains a person Col John Boyd developed the OODA loopon success under stress, in high-risk environments, at high rates of speed. That system is all about acquiring information, processing that information, making a decision, and then acting on that decision.

The decision making model he developed is called OODA.

That is an acronym for; Observe, Orient, Decide, Act.



Broken down it means –

  • Observation of the raw information on which decisions and actions are based.
  • Orient the information to your situation and environment.
  • Decide a course of action.
  • Act quickly and decisively.

While it would be convenient to allow those brief explanations to stand on their own, it is impossible if you want to truly understand how it all works together for success.

One of the best explanations of the complete OODA cycle was by Harry Hillaker –

“The key is to obscure your intentions and make them unpredictable to your opponent while you simultaneously clarify his intentions. That is, operate at a faster tempo to generate rapidly changing conditions that inhibit your opponent from adapting or reacting to those changes and that suppress or destroy his awareness. Thus, a hodgepodge of confusion and disorder occur to cause him to over- or under- react to conditions or activities that appear to be uncertain, ambiguous, or incomprehensible.”

What I am understanding Hillaker to say is fairly simple – Embrace the confusion and use it to your advantage to defeat your enemy. I think I have that understood pretty clearly but that explanation is purely for a military or tactical situation.

What about when there is no person as an enemy?

How do you even describe “enemy” is these terms?

For this discussion I will revert back to our discussion on “objectives” as the enemy. We must “win” in terms of meeting the objective. If we can’t claim a “win” then we “lose.” Losing means that our objective was not met. And success in this arena is based on achieving our objectives, hence “losing” is the enemy.

Based on the foundation I just laid out where there is no person as an enemy, there is no option to turn confusion against our enemy. Confusion in this sense only hurts our team and hinders the successful accomplishment of our objective. However, we can easily state with certainty that seeing through, and/or eliminating, any confusion would make attaining our objective far easier. We can now agree that we only need to go half way on the confusion issue, remove it vs. install it on our non-person enemy.

In retrospect haven’t we already started down the path of confusion elimination?

When I wrote about Objectives and Priorities I presented the topic of Leader’s Intent we can/did ask for clarification to ensure a solid foundation of understanding. On the other hand, if we are the one delivering Leader’s Intent we used the SMART model to clarify the task. So exactly what confusion is left to clear-up?ColJohnBoydOODA-003If you look closely at the OODA Loop you will notice that there is a very close relationship between the “OO” and the Situational Awareness. In plain English the “Observe” and “Orient” matches perfectly with the concept of Situational Awareness (SA). If your SA is good, your OO is functioning correctly as well.

Situational Awareness & OODASo why the need for both models?

There is a vital need, the OODA loop outlines the entire process along with explaining the “why.” The “why” being defeating your enemy, or accomplishing your objective(s). I see the OODA loop as a bridge between two more detailed systems –

  1. Situational Awareness
  2. Risk Management

If you go back to Hillaker’s explanation there is a key part “…operate at a faster tempo to generate rapidly changing conditions…” That integrates a true sense of urgency into the overall process. The need to move at a sufficient pace to outperform your enemy. Is it not reasonable to assume that if you outperform your enemy that you win?

Col John Boyd OODA loop jet fightersBut, what about dealing with an objective as the enemy?

When you consider the different aspects of an inanimate foe, the process can be both more difficult, and yet easier. When dealing with a person as a foe you have to assume many things about that person and hope you are right. A smart foe can do things entirely unpredictable which subsequently disrupts your SA and hence, the outcome. However, an inanimate objective can be almost as unpredictable, but that same inanimate objective is lacking the ability to purposely be unpredictable. The end result is there are pluses and minuses to both situations, an animate vs. an inanimate foe. For this discussion we will focus on the inanimate foe, an objective.

Let’s review what the Swiss Cheese model of risk management looks like –

Swiss Cheese Risk Management You have any number of opportunities to stop a negative incident from occurring. Plugging just a single hole in any slice of cheese prevents the incident from ever occurring.

If you were to chart the OODA Loop process as consisting of a combination of Situational Awareness and Risk Management it would something like this.

Adding in Situational Awareness

Adding in Situational Awareness

Then adding in calculating the probability & severity aspect of the risk.

Then adding in calculating the probability & severity aspect of the risk.

Here we see the OODA loop link two systems that were previously envisioned as “stand alone.” While both of those systems were valuable and applicable, they did form a complete picture for our purposes. However, there is a third system that is still missing that carries considerable influence, if not total control, over everything – Leader’s Intent.

While some could argue that Leader’s Intent would be one of the “filters” of the SA process I would disagree. I think Leader’s Intent drives all of the systems from the very beginning. Thus, I propose the proper graphic representation of the system should look more like this.

Leaders Intent OODA Situational AwarenessNonetheless I still maintain that the graphic reorientation is still lacking a key piece. No doubt that you would accomplish the object, but in the graphic it is implied, not explicit. And, depending on the situation you may or may not be able to undertake the planning process formally, it may have to be done “on the fly” and not in written form. I am of course referring to planning as a key element.

In my way of thinking Situational Awareness is a more complete system/process to define and accomplish the observe and orient of the OODA loop. And, Risk Management encompasses the decide and act aspect of the OODA loop. Clear Leaders’ Intent drives the whole loop in harmony. How does planning work into the process?

Planning is actually a combination of orient and act parts of the OODA loop with a heavy influence of leader’s general eisenhowerintent. Have no doubt that planning will be a key element of any success in accomplishment of an objective. However, General Eisenhower said, 

“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”

What he was trying to get across through that statement was the fact that though the planning process we find the weaknesses, strengths, and alternatives to the environment in which we will operate. A good example of that is “combat loading” of ships. If you loaded a ship for an invasion such as D-Day the same way you would load a normal cargo ship, you would be doomed to failure.

Why? All the ammo would be loaded together in one area, all the trucks loaded in another, tanks in another, Humvees it yet another area, etc.

As the invasion takes place do you need all the Humvees at one time? No. How about needing all the trucks at one time? No. And the same is true for tanks, ammo, medical supplies, etc. The military loads ships in a manner that the supplies come off in the order in which they are needed. You may only need 20 trucks at first, but you need 10 tanks before that, and 15 Humvees along with the tanks and trucks. But a sufficient amount of fuel, ammo, and medical supplies need to off-loaded with the appropriate vehicles. The planning process allows for the discovery of such issues and making the appropriate adjustments.

Another example would be the same situation of the actual invasion. The leader’s intent would be to secure town “x.” While in the planning process it becomes obvious which beach is the best to land on due to any number of factors. But, good planning demands that you have multiple alternatives. The same would be true for routes to get off the beach and to the town you are supposed to secure. Once again, in the planning process you are looking at maps that show the best/fastest way to reach the town. And yet again, you must have multiple alternatives in case your run into resistance or other obstacles with the primary route.

As the invasion unfolds different invading units run into problems getting off the beach for any number of reasons. However, since the planning process revealed multiple routes to the town, the local (on the ground) unit leaders can pick alternative routes as the battle unfolds. And, those choices can be made without running it up the chain of command because the optional routes are already in the plan…and approved. Hence, the local leader on the ground is still operating within the authorization given through leader’s intent.

Had there been no formal planning, the alternative routes would not have been identified ahead of time…and previously approved. The leader on the ground would have to discover the optional routes causing loss of time and jeopardizing successful completion of the objective.

Yet another revision of the entire process would look something like this…

LeadersIntent-004Do I have you confused by now?

How about…do I have your eyes glazed over yet?

That is obviously not my intention or my objective.

What I do what you to think about is how to be successful when it comes to surviving after “grid-down” when all your prepping comes into play. But, surviving is a whole lot more than just beans, bullets, and band-aids! It is about how you become a successful prepper to become a successful survivor. And success depends on skills. No, not skill…SKILLS !

And you need to understand how to use systems such as OODA Loop, Situational Awareness, and Risk Management to improve your odds of success. If you can improve your odds of success in a grid-down situation, then it will be much easier for less serious emergencies and disasters as well. But it all takes time, effort, and commitment to develop such skills. Might as well start learning and developing…now.

Success or failure is the outcome of your situational awareness.

Two Potential Outcomes…make your choice!


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No reproduction or other use of this content 
without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com
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