Hoax Alert: Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S.

 

 

Hoax AlertArticle Headline – “Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S.”

Wow!!!!   WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE ! ! !

OK, maybe not. Why? Ah…let’s talk about it…

First of all read the words in the headline, specifically “…could kill…”. That means there is only a possibility of that occurring.

Next, let’s move it into the professional world of emergency incident response…yeah, real world of those who actually respond to this stuff. Since there is a “possibility” that it could occur let’s apply a more professional and more accurate term…”probability”. Now, since we moved into the professional world let’s look at that word…a percentage of nonoccurence is always associated with it when planning for the occurrence to actually happen. And nowhere in the article do they give that % chance that their prediction will occur. Strike #1.

So let’s look at the folks who came up with that prediction…University of Washington School of Medicine. This is a subjective observation on my part…they are hardly a top tier group such as John Hopkins. Strike #2.

There actual finding states that their number could “vary widely” and could be “38,000 to as high as around 162,000“. So they really don’t know. It could range from an average flu season number of deaths to triple the number of deaths in a bad flu season. SO they question their own “predictions”. Strike #3.

The the report lead person responds to why the problem in figuring out what exactly will, “disparate rates of the spread of the virus in different regions, which experts are still struggling to explain“. Yeah, they admit they don’t understand their own prediction or the underlying numbers they are using to make the prediction. Strike #4.

And finally…these predictions come from a process called “modeling”. And modeling takes a snapshot of data of their choosing, then applies a statistical model to it, massage the expectations, and then promote the numerical outcome. In other words…they guess at it. Does modeling exist anywhere else in the scientific world? Yup! let me show you one…

Here is the model that the weather service produced to show different modeling of where the hurricane might hit. Notice the variances? Why do you think those variances exist? Because they don’t “know” they are making a scientific guess.The guesses vary from hitting eastern coast of Florida then Louisiana all the way to swooping around and completely missing the eastern coast of Florida and then hitting the northern coast of Florida.

Another view of modeling…

Notice the the northern landfall guess is 500 miles wide! That guess is about 75% of the entire coast of the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico. That is how accurate modeling is…guessing at it.

Actual track of Hurricane Katrina…

If you view the actual track vs. the modeling you find that one of the models hit it pretty well. But, it was only 1 of the modeling tracks, the other 80% weren’t even close.

Bottom line: Someone is going to be right about the COVID-19 outcomes in terms of deaths…and at least 80% of everything else, maybe more, will be proven wrong. And right now…the facts are showing this University of Washington School of Medicine model (guess) to be in the 80% wrong category. Stick with facts!

 

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Hoax Alert: Tanks Being Moved to be Used for Martial Law

Hoax AlertArticle Headline – Tanks Being Moved to be Used for Martial Law

This is a hoax that shows up every few years in one form or another…and has shown up again lately in regards to COVID-19. And the scare is that the tanks that are seen on railroad cars are being positioned in preparation of martial law. Ah, no they are not.

Army units conduct training on a regular basis throughout the year. National Guard units conduct training once a year. When that training takes place many units take their tanks with them for requalification’s, etc. Also, some tank units get assigned to new bases and their tanks go with them.Further, tanks periodically go for refitting, heavy maintenance, rebuilding, and scrapping. These are just part of many reasons why tanks are seen on railroad cars and/or over-the-road trucks.

So no, the US Army is not prepositioning tanks for a planned implementation of Martial Law.

One additional fraud test: Do you honestly think that an order for the Army to prepare for martial law could be kept super-secret quiet…or do you this it would become common knowledge in about 30 – 45 seconds?

 

 

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Hoax Alert: COVID-19 is More Deadly than the Regular Flu

Hoax AlertStatement – “COVID-19 is More Deadly than the Regular Flu”

So let’s deal with this one once and for all. But in order to do that I need to quiz you to see if you are qualified to understand the answer and/or figure it out on your own. Ready?

  • Quiz Question #1: What does “deadly” mean?

Answer something similar to: “lethal means causing, or capable of causing, death”

 

  • Quiz Question #2: Which number is larger; 600 or 20?

Answer: 600

  • Quiz Question #3: There are two accidents on a highway; 1) accident #1 is a Greyhound bus that hits a bridge, bursts into flames and all 60 people onboard die, 2) accident #2 is a Chevy Volt that hits a street light and kills two people riding in the front seat. Which accident is considered more deadly and why?

Answer: The bus accident, because 30 times more people died that accident.

I sincerely hope you passed with the quiz with an “A”…100% right answers. Since you are reading this on my website I would guarantee you got and “A” with 100% score.

So, back to the hoax statement in question form…Which is more deadly the COVID-19 virus or the regular flu season flu?

FACTS: On average the regular flu season kills more than 600,000 people worldwide, more than 30,000 people each year in the United States. So far (3/26/2020) the COVID-19 virus has killed 24,000 worldwide and 720.

  • Final Test Question #1…Which is greater 600,000 or 24,000?
  • Final Test Question #2…Which is greater 30,000 or 720?

Test Answer Key –

  • Final Question #1: 600,000 is 25times larger than 24,000…so 600,000 is greater than 24,000.
  • Final Question #2: 30,000 is 41.67times larger than 720…so 30,000 is greater than 720.

Conclusion:To date the regular flu season is far, FAR more deadly than the COVID-19 virus whether you’re talking in terms of worldwide or the United States. And that is pure mathematical FACT!

Anyone who says COVID-19 is more deadly has one or more of the following problems:

  1.   They don’t understand the meaning of the word “deadly”.
  2.   They lack the most basic of math skills.
  3.   They lack any ability to understand how to compare two numbers to determine which is greater.
  4.   They have an agenda, the foundation of which lays outside of the use of facts.

One note: There is the possibility that COVID-19 could grow in mortality to be more deadly…but that trend line would have to change significantly. And there is no fact that significant of a change will occur. So there is always that probability but it is very, very low at this point…based on FACTS.

 

 

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Hoax Alert: Bank Runs Have Begun!

Hoax AlertArticle headline –“Bank Runs Have Begun!”

So the source for this hoax came from another website, a prepper website. And ti was really easy to spot. First off, no source document. Next, it was simply a person writing about their personal experience. Finally, I was unable to replicate his experience.

So I tried to find any other source that bank runs were taking place. No reports whatsoever.

Then I went into town…straight to the bank. I tried to withdraw a fair amount of cash. Ah, no problems at all!

Here is the problem with this kind of crap…perception is reality. If people start hearing this junk information they tend to pass it on if they believe it. Then other people hear it…then more, then more. And as the rumor cycles back around it confirms the first rumor and so forth. Perfect example of rumors and mob mentality.

 

 

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Hoax Alert: 8 – 20 Million Chinese Died from COVID-19

Hoax AlertThis article is actually a combination of an actual article and then a lot of comments of the real number of deaths in China from COVID-19. The top end of that range was 20,000,000 that was touted as accurate.

Article headline – “Mobile Phone Market Data Suggests That Over 8 Million Chinese Have Died From Corona Virus”

So that sounds very, very scary that the Chinese government is hiding the true number of deaths. And fortunately for me, the source article was included…in Chinese. Yeah, the article was all written in Chinese, unable to be read by this poor schmuck. So the person posting it couldn’t even read the source document, now there is some good quality vetting!

But no fear! The source of the number must be reliable…right? Ah, how about a mobile phone company (China Mobile) who simply reported that they lost 8 million customers recently. And from that comments showed up that it must be due to people dying…8,000,000+ from the COVID-19 virus. And so a US based website, who is known for their sensationalist reporting to promote their products and services, picks it up and takes off with it. Before you know it…the number was estimated to be 20+million people dead in China.

So what does your commonsense tell you? How about your use of logic and reason?

Yeah, thought so. It is a fraudulent hoax that started with a dubious report, exaggerated by people without direct knowledge, promoted by a questionable website who didn’t verify the original source, and then published again by another sensationalist prepper website. So the information is, at best, fourth hand and completely unverified.

Yup….hoax!  Not even China could conceal 8,000,000 dead people within a few months from COVID-19.

 

 

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Hoax Alert: WARNING! HOSPITAL BEDS NOT AVAILABLE – NATIONAL GUARD TAKING OVER – EXTREME SITUATION UNFOLDING!

Hoax AlertArticle Headline – WARNING! HOSPITAL BEDS NOT AVAILABLE – NATIONAL GUARD TAKING OVER – EXTREME SITUATION UNFOLDING!

This crap appeared on a self-described preparedness website…

Sounds likes something to be really concerned about…maybe panic over. But, what more do I have to say about it? Nothing! But, let me share what a couple trusted friends’ comments were…

One says…

This guy is a freak! Absolutely and utterly naive….and needs a little lesson on the constitution as well as some more factual info on Covid 19. US is a little different than those European countries and it will not be a title wave the engulfs the country.

55,000 Americans died in 2017 from the influenza and pneumonia. At what point in 2017 did we lose all our freedoms and quarantine the nation? Average age of death for the 8200 deaths WORLDWIDE is 70 yo. Total deaths in America remain under 100. Does anyone use common sense? Now we talk of an 8 Billion dollar bill to fight corona and now talk of a trillion dollar stimulus package to help those affected financially by the virus. Once again….over 100 deaths! Crazy!

They said worse things about the Avian Flu, H1N1, and SARS..and guess what, ALL predictions failed. I understand being cautious about the spread…I understand not to overwhelm Healthcare workers. But the panic is becoming far worse than the sickness. Most Americans live check to check and shutting down for 2 weeks will have significant impacts that could have colossal unintended consequences.

Then we have this moron CALLING for government officials to put people in jail that violate quarantines! The problem is everyone seems to have a computer model that continues a certain trend based off an algorithm….the only problem is there are far too many outside factors to enter into an algorithm!

Here are the facts….92% of hospitalized cases are 50+…81% are 60+. If you are in this age range, its time to exercise extreme caution. Reduce visitors and self quarantine. If you don’t, hospitals may be overbooked and you might DIE…period..end of story.

If your not in the age range, exercise caution in cleanliness but continue life as normal!!! Most people in the affected age range are retired or on the verge of retirement. But young adults have bills and families to support. They haven’t amassed a nest egg for emergencies. If they do catch it, stay home…but the symptoms are far less severe than the flu.

Just imagine if there was a “real-time flu tracker”….showing deaths and infections. And every news agency was talking about the 55,000 deaths in America? And this already happened in 2017. Who heard about it? How many news story’s about it? How many quarantines? How many limits on gatherings over 50?…..ZERO! Spreading fear is turning into irresponsible journalism.

I agree that this matter is concerning and should be something to watch. But lets not turn it into something it simply isn’t. Notice how they keep focusing on # of cases, not mortality rate. Notice they focus on the rate at which the infection doubles, not the rate at which the deaths double. Because those numbers are more SCARY. I am not buying it anymore.


Another buddy says…

There is enough real fear, anxiety, and uncertainly without posting poorly vetted, misleading or false information. It may be “fun”,”exciting”, or we may be feeling we’re being “helpful”, but it is none of those things. I for one feel it’s a misuse of my limited resources to read sensationalist garbage on a site to view bad, misleading info when there are hundreds of free conspiracy and fake news sites already out there.

What would have been a more useful purpose of this article is for a “teaching moment” with a headline like “BEWARE OF ARTICLES LIKE THIS THAT SPREAD FEAR FALSELY”. There is plenty of real, justified fear out there without making that stuff up.


So I ask you…What do you think about websites that are promoting fake and false information? Do you trust them to give you truth? What about people who promote fear, panic, and hysteria? How about those that defend such actions? Are you gaining moral clarity and improving your Situational Awareness by seeing all these hoaxes and frauds exposed?

 

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Hoax Alert: Amazon Suspends All Shipments Other Than Medical Supplies, Household Staples

Hoax AlertThis is only the second article in this series, I hope they mean something to you. They should!  You need to know what is real, what is not, what is truth, and what is a lie. Please read this entire alert…there is more to it than a simple warning.

Article headline – “Amazon Suspends All Shipments Other Than Medical Supplies, Household Staples”

Sounds very serious doesn’t it? Could easily add to the fear about the COVID-19 situation, right? Lead to more panic buying? Contribute to the potential for violence amongst stressed out customers trying to buy essential household items, yes?

But the real question should be…Is it true? And, where did it come from?

The second question is simple to answer…a major paid membership prepper website. Now, what’s the answer to the first question? That answer is very simple as well…NO, it’s a lie…a 100% lie!

And it was very easy to figure out. All I had to do was read the article itself. Yes, the article that the headline was attached to. The article quoted Amazon as “We are temporarily prioritizing household staples, medical supplies, and other high-demand products coming into our fulfillment centers so that we can more quickly receive, restock, and deliver these products to customers…”

Let’s read that again with the key to this hoax…“We are temporarily prioritizing household staples, medical supplies, and other high-demand products coming into our fulfillment centers so that we can more quickly receive, restock, and deliver these products to customers,”

The word suspend doesn’t appear anywhere in the article. Yes, that means the headline of the article is completely and totally false. But, before I passed judgement on the truthfulness of the headline or article I went to the source: (source article). And as you would expect…the word “suspend” doesn’t appear in the article ANYWHERE!

And just to make sure the headline was false…I checked my own Amazon account. The door hinges I ordered yesterday were shipped out to me today and are due to arrive on Thursday. So yes, they are shipping non-essential, lower-end  items.

Conclusion: The headline of the post on the prepper website is a lie. Plain and simple…the headline is 100% untrue.

So why would a website lie like this? Let’s look at it objectively…the person making this post either intentionally lied or unintentionally used a word that isn’t correct. Let’s look at those two options.

Unintentional use of a word that doesn’t appear in the article and creates a significant difference in Amazon’s message. Well, that means the person never actually read what he wrote. Or, he is ignorant and doesn’t understand the difference between “prioritize” and “suspends”. Or, ok…what else could it be?

Intentional misrepresentation of the truth…why would he do it? First into my head is he has something against Amazon and wishes to hurt their business. If people would read the headline and not the article they would get the distinct impression that Amazon was essentially closed for business…other than essential items such as medical supplies, etc.

Next, maybe the person posting the headline wishes to create “click bait” in an attempt to capture people’s attention. Doing so creates more website traffic, which in turn creates more business, which drives up profits. So maybe his intention is money/profit driven.

Lastly, maybe they are other, darker, reasons. Such as, perhaps he wishes to add to the panic and fear by representing a major retailer essentially closing their doors? Maybe he is trying to fan the flames of panic buying? Or add to the existing sense of general panic in the US population right now?

Who knows why he did it, or what his intention is?

But, his intention matters not! The fact of the matter is the headline is very dishonest. Yes, a lie. And through that lie he is adding to panic, fear, and hysteria that is growing in America. Shameful!!!  Reprehensible!!!

Now, a little more information…the person who posted the headline is the owner of the website. And…the very first Hoax Alert (3/16/2020)…yeah, it was another article from his website!! So now we have two fraudulent posts from a single website in two days. What passes through your mind at this point? What questions does it raise?

I am telling you point blank…Their are disreputable people out there driving fear, panic, and hysteria. Further, some people are doing so unintentionally through ignorance…others are doing it for their persona agenda.

Please don’t get caught up in all the fake and fraudulent information out there. Stick with facts and credible information, and view/opinions from sources you trust. And, learn how to think critically and independently. Many folks can’t or won’t think for themselves, many can’t see lies vs. truth. A breeding ground for GroupThink and Confirmation Bias. Avoid it like the plague…a plague much worse than COVID-19.

 

 

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