How sure are you that there will be a stock market crash in 2025?

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  • From: TM

How sure are you that there will be a stock market crash in 2025?

Great question, trick question, touchy question…difficult question.

Remember I use the risk management model for what I think is coming. That includes probability, severity, and timeline. You can learn more about that methodology by < clicking here >

When I look at past occurrences of market troubles here in the US it becomes apparent that any stock market issue here in the US ripples out globally pretty quickly. There is truth in the saying “when America sneezes, the world gets a cold.” To me, any stock market crash here in the US will be devastating to the US economy as a whole…and it would bring down the entire economic/financial system. That would spread worldwide quickly and with devastation. All that being said I would rate the severity aspect as ‘extreme’.

Now comes the tricky part…probability. Based on pure facts, 100% historical facts…there is a 100% probability that the US stock market will crash and the entire US economy along with it. Which goes first is another discussion, economy vs market. The ‘timeline’ to that probability is unknown in my opinion…but it will definitely happen. I am guessing within 10 – 25 years for sure.

But that doesn’t answer your question. Your specific ‘timeline’ qualifier changes the equation considerably.

Here are some factors that I am taking into consideration:

  • 2024 Presidential election

  • Two presidential candidates that appear to be polar opposites and the country split pretty evenly in their support

  • Current financial condition of the US economy

  • Here is one that I struggle to quantify…the elites lust for absolute power.

We all know that Biden is nothing more than a figure head, he is clearly not running the country, it is not possible for him to do so. He is close to entering the final stages of dementia and he is totally incapable of leading this administration. So there is a power structure behind him that is calling the shots and running the government…I call them the Elites.

Then you have Trump who has a very vocal and passionate base of support…along with a fair number of crazies in that bunch capable of just about anything. Trump’s legal problems are well-known and he is facing the real possibility of prison time. But I doubt that his base would sit-by and allow that to happen.

These campaign/election/selection issues make the country very, very unstable right now. That instability alone could tank the markets on any given day. But there is also the very real threat of the elites behind Biden using a crash as a tactic to forego, delay, or dramatically move the election/selection.

Taking all this into consideration there are several ‘timeline’ and ‘probability’ combinations between now and the end of 2025. It looks something like this:

Timeline = by election day / Probability = high (very high if is looks as if Biden will lose by a landslide)

Timeline = after election before inauguration / Probability = very high (if Trump wins)

Timeline = after election before inauguration / Probability = low (if Biden wins)

Timeline = between now and end of 2025 / Probability = moderately high (regardless of who wins)

Want to know what the “experts” are saying?

  • US market expert warns of ‘a bigger crash’ than 2008 — says there’s ‘nowhere to hide’ – 6/13/2024 AP MoneyWise
  • There’s a stock market crash coming in 2025 as the ‘bubble of all bubbles’ bursts – 6/10/2024 Business Insider
  • This Forecasting Tool Hasn’t Been Wrong in 65 Years, and It Has a Sobering Message for Wall Street – 5/12/2024 Motley Fool
  • From a 65% stock market crash to an imminent recession – 5/12/2024 Business Insider
  • 6 Risk Factors showing market crash coming – 5/8/2024 US News & World Report
  • Bubble of all bubbles, stock market crash of 2025, likely worse than 2008 – 6/12/2024 The Economic Times
  • A coming recession will send the S&P 500 plummeting more than 60% – 6/1/2024 Business Insider
  • US economist predicts 2025 stock market crash worse than 2008 – 6/12/2024 NewsBytes
  • Stock Market Crash Worse Than 2008 Crisis Coming In 2025 – 6/11/2024 NDTV
  • Is the Stock Market Going to Crash? 153 Years of Valuation History Weighs In and Provides a Big [yes] Clue – 6/16/2024 Motely Fool
  • There are two factors signaling a recession by year-end or early 2025, and stock market tumbling – 5/7/2024 – Business Insider
  • How far could America’s stock market fall? Crash – 4/25/2024 The Economist

Now, back to your question…

I am not confident that there will be a ‘crash’ by the end of 2025…according to my ‘gut feeling’. The operative word being ‘confident’. That being said…my head tells me that all the key economic indicators show that a crash by the end of 2025 is virtually unavoidable. And there are plenty of ‘experts’ to back that up. So there is a serious conflict for me on what will happen. Then add in the whole election/selection thing and it gets real cloudy.

So what to do?

You have to make up your own mind on what to do for you and your family…I can’t make that decision or give you advice on that. For me and my wife…well, we are playing both games. Here’s what we are doing:

  1. Zero debt.
  2. Cash fund on hand.
  3. At least a year’s supply of everything necessities on hand.
  4. Keeping about 1/3 of our modest IRA in a S&P 500 index fund.
  5. Keeping our Situational Awareness on high.

Here is an ‘unknown’ to consider…the Elites plan. By that I mean, the elites running this country have a plan. The goal of that plan is an authoritarian state, they have made that clear on a number of occasions. The easiest way to implement the final stage(s) of their plan is martial law, or something similar. The easiest way to do that is having the citizenry in a state of panic, chaos, anger, desperation, and fear. The single easiest way to trigger all of that is a stock market crash and/or a bank run. At any time the Elites could push either of those buttons. So the big ‘unknown’…the Elites plan with their timeline.

My advice…pray, plan, prepare, practice.

I know I wandered around quite a bit on you trying to answer your question…I hope I was of some help.

 

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