FAQ – 4/13/2020 (COVID-19)

  • How long do you think the COVID-19 crisis panic will last? In other words, how long till we get back to normal as a country?

That is a tough question…and a really good one. First off I don’t know for sure. Outbreaks like this, and for sure the worst ones, tend to run in cycles. They break out in season #1, mutate a few times, then go away, or recede, during the summer months when the sun’s UV light kills the virus on many surfaces. Then it comes back starting early in the following season, normally September or October. In the case of the Spanish Flu of 1918…it was the real killer when it came back the following season.

Granted, there is little comparison of 2020 medical and technology expertise of that in 1918, but we have the disadvantage of easy and fast travel capability. Meaning it could spread extremely quickly if it comes back. There is no consensus among medical/health experts if it will come back or not.

What I find particularly telling is Neel Kashkari, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis stated yesterday that we should be prepared for America to be financially and economically locked down for the next 18 months. Should that be the case based on how it is trending now…America is done.

I think President Trump will do everything in his power to get our economy running again as soon as practical. If he can’t, won’t or is thwarted…we are in big trouble…and sooner rather than later.

  • You talked about “buying the dip” a while back, do you still recommend that?

I don’t “recommend” anything, I am not a professional advisor, etc. I have in the past spoken about what I am doing, or have done. Right now I am in a holding pattern waiting on a trend to appear. Since February I made 4 purchases with my “buy the dip” concept. My average mutual fund share price is down 2% on those buys. But the trend line is nicely upward right now. My lowest share purchase price is up over 10%…so I am satisfied with what I did. Ask me again in a year…that will be the best measure.

  • At the beginning of all this COVID-19 thing you seemed to be downplaying the seriousness. How do you feel now?

I didn’t see it as bad as a normal flu season, I was more worried about the hysteria, hype, and fear being promoted by unscrupulous people. I still hold that same position. And here is why:

  1. The number of COVID-19 deaths is extremely skewed. As the government representative stated last week, anyone who dies and has any indication of the presence of COVID-19 is counted as cause of death = COVID-19…whether they died from COVID-19 or not. So a person can die from Stage 4 Cancer of the liver and if they tested positive even postmortem) they are listed under the COVID-19 death numbers. That isn’t just unscientific, it’s blatantly dishonest.
  2. Some people who express symptoms of COVID-19 and die are classified as COVID-19 deaths…many of which are never actually tested. And non-hospitalized COVID-19 symptoms are nearly identical to the regular flu.
  3. Current estimates indicate that 90% of all COVID-19 deaths show clearly that there are serious underlying health conditions. No consistent or credible nationwide effort is being made to determine if the underlying condition killed the patient or COVID-19 did.
  4. The mortality rate is WAY off!!!  Mortality rate is calculated based on number of deaths per total cases. At the current numbers we are showing about a 4% mortality rate. Somewhere about 10 times what the normal flu would be. Why? Because virtually all the normally healthy people (no underlying health conditions) who contract COVID-19 rarely even show symptoms, let alone get tested. So the number of people who actually contracted COVID-19 could easily be 10 – 20 times what the published numbers suggest. So we could be looking at a true mortality rate of  .2 – .4% mortality rate, possibly lower. That would be consistent with a normal flu season.

I could go on but you either understand me now or not. And that depends on whether you believed me at the onset or not. Do your own research on this…it is enlightening to say the least.

 

 

Ask me a question …





 

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