The Bureau of Economic Analysis, US federal government agency, released GDP figures last week. According to them…GDP grew by 4.3% last quarter. Lot’s of folks have been raving about that figure…saying how great that shows our economy is doing. And of course Trump gloated about the 4.3% figure crediting his economic agenda. And get this… Commerce Department Secretary Howard Lutnick claimed “Americans got a 4.3% raise.” Trump later went on to claim the 4.3% GDP number, “The success is due to good government, and tariffs.”

But maybe we aren’t getting the real story…

I double checked to make sure I was saying something that was true:

• First major component of GDP is consumption (what consumers pay)…4th quarter 2025 inflation figure is about 3.1%.
• Second major component is government spending…US federal government spending for 2025 is up 6%

So, it appears that the federal government spending and inflation accounts for most, if not all, of the GDP increase…if I am reading the numbers right.

Kinda rings true since the federal government is running an almost $2trillion budget deficit for 2025.

Now, on top of that, US Customs has reported they sucked about $200billion out of the private sector economy due to tariffs. Yeah, $200billion that American citizens and companies can’t spend on what they want to. And even with the additional $200billion, the federal government is still running that HUGE budget deficit.

Then let’s think about these items:

• In November home foreclosures jumped 21%.
• There are some reputable economists out there that say government spending is driving most of the GDP growth. Take out the massive increase in government spending and the real GDP is more like .8% (yeah POINT 8%)
• Almost all of the increase in consumer spending went on credit cards, and almost all of the remainder came out of savings driving personal savings to an historic low. And it appears that most of the increase in consumer spending was seasonal based on back-to-school shopping.
• This year (2025) gold is up almost $2,000 per ounce, silver is up more than $40 an ounce…those kinds of jumps only happens when investors and governments fear what’s happening in the markets and economy…and the world in general.
• CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is down noticeably indicating a lack of confidence in the stock markets.
• Consumer sentiment index (Consumer Confidence) is down significantly this year indicating that consumers are fearful of the US economy and its future.
• Here’s an interesting tidbit: “Consumer spending this year has increasingly been characterized by a growing divide between wealthy households that aren’t changing their habits amid rising costs of living, and middle- and lower-income households that have cut back in response to a weaker labor market and tariffs and inflation that both drive up the cost of daily expenses.“
• And 30% more Americans are saying that their finances are worse now than at the end of 2024.
• More than 6 out of 10 people disapprove of the way Trump is handling the economy.

So you be the judge…is the GDP number mis-information…or…is it the best GDP figure ever in the history of the country, the best big beautiful GDP number of any president in the universe, a fantastic incredible shinny GDP that has ever been reported…the best, most beautiful, incredible, shinny, fantastic…okay, you get my point.

To me…the facts, figures, stats, and evidence all show that the GDP increase being “great” is pure bullshit. But, you are free to be your own judge based on whatever information/statement you want to accept and use.

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