In this series of articles based on threats and risks to the “prepper” I have covered a lot of ground. My goal was to provide all preppers a valid and reliable system of threat/risk assessment by which those risks/threats could be ranked. Once ranked, you can design a plan to mitigate the associated risks and threats for any given event.

Back in the Introduction I identified the two parts that threats/risks pose to the prepper, they are; 1) probability, 2) severity. And you state it as, “How likely will the event occur from now and how severe will the outcome be?”

We do have impact through manipulation of probability and severity and thus can reduce the events impact on us, our family, our group and our community. And to more fully understand how that happens I went through the vehicle accident mitigation efforts and how companies and government reduced both the probability and severity of vehicle accidents. You can do the same when it comes to planning for the events that will plunge you into an emergency, disaster, or even a grid-down event.

In “Part #2” I touched on the Concern Level and the time-frame in which a plan needed to be created. The Concern Levels are Little, Moderate, Serious, and Critical. Obviously all levels to be mitigated but the Critical concern level needs to be addressed, a plan devised to mitigate the problems…and to do so quickly.

In my last article I wrote about what I feel are the most pressing issues that my family and I are facing at this particular time. Based on the ratings I assigned to each potential event here are the events in order of concern with the highest concern first:

When I charted it out in “Part #3” it looked like this –

So now is the time to figure out how to mitigate each event. For learning purposes I will go in reverse Concern Level order.

Heart Attack –

Reduce the probability of occurrence & time frame: I eat reasonably healthy, exercise regularly, have a complete physical every three years. I have also educated myself on what the warning signs look like. I also don’t go too far beyond what I feel are my physical limitations. I am married and go to church which also statistically reduces my chances of a heart attack.

Reduce the severity should it occur: Those around me daily are trained in CPR. In our little group of friends that hangout together we have a couple of well trained medical folks. I came across a bottle of “nitro” that is part of my medkit as well as aspirin.

EMP or Nuclear Strike –

Reduce the probability of occurrence & time frame: There is nothing I can do to affect this item except at the ballot box. I vote libertarian which tends to lend itself to voting for the person least likely to use a nuclear weapon on someone else, and thus, the other country to use a nuclear weapon on us. Considering the only use of a nuclear weapon was at the hands of a very liberal/socialist/progressive/democrat and same for the near use of one, I feel I am doing the right thing.

Reduce the severity should it occur: I live in an area that is not attractive to a direct strike. I have tools and gear that can be used without power. I have some gear that I have taken modest steps towards protecting against an EMP strike.

Invasion of USA –

Reduce the probability of occurrence & time frame: There is nothing I can do to affect this item except at the ballot box. I vote for the person least likely to get us into a situation where we have foreign troops landing on American soil. Note: I think it is a virtual impossibility that any country, or combination of countries, can or will invade the USA.

Reduce the severity should it occur: I looked at the disruptions that were likely to occur in this event. They were: food distribution disruption, communications break down, power disruptions, martial law, violence and potential for occupation. To mitigate these I have taken the following steps: 1) I have food storage and the ability to grow more. 2) I have various capabilities to obtain information via emergency radio, I have Ham radio capability as well as alternative means of communicating. 3) I have the ability to provide minimal power via generator and solar. 4) I have the ability to “bug-in” for a sustained period of time. I have obtained skills to assist me in resisting martial law. 5) I have means by which my family can defend itself against violence. 6) We have multiple levels of planning to “bug-out” to alternative locations that are less likely to be occupied.

Epidemic / Pandemic –

Reduce the probability of occurrence & time frame: I have no opportunity to affect either of these events on any reasonable scale. On a family scale we can self-quarantine for a substantial amount of time removing our exposure to others. We have personal protective equipment that can add a layer of protection should we be forced to be around potential carriers. We have multiple levels of planning to “bug-out” to alternative locations that are less likely to be occupied.

Reduce the severity should it occur: We have a basic supply of over-the-counter medications. We also have a supply of basic antibiotics. We have a significant supply of vitamins to supplement our immune system.

Stock Market Crash –

Reduce the probability of occurrence & time frame: I have no control and no input that can prevent the stock market from crashing.

Reduce the severity should it occur: While we do have some percentage of our retirement accounts in mutual funds, those funds are managed with a certain degree of safety above that which affects the stock market in general. We have the ability to move our stock based mutual funds into “cash” funds with a single phone call and trigger points set to do such. We don’t have all of our retirement funds in stock market related investments. We have some in “cash equivalents” that can be redeemed for cash almost instantly. We have other funds that are in precious metals, other commodities, and real-estate.

Retirement –

Reduce the probability of occurrence & time frame: We don’t want to reduce the probability of this event, we welcome it.

Reduce the severity should it occur: We have retirement accounts and other investments that will carry us through retirement vs. dependence on Social Security. We have food storage. By the time we are both retired we should have our retirement property debt-free. We are working towards being able to provide approximately 50% of our food ourselves. Our retirement home will be off-grid and thus reduce the costs of utilities, etc.

Financial Collapse –

Reduce the probability of occurrence & time frame: I have no control and no input that can prevent the financial system from crashing.

Reduce the severity should it occur: We have a cash emergency fund. We have a precious metals emergency fund. We have other commodities that have real value. We are working fervently towards a debt-free retirement property. We have part of our retirement investments in a “cash equivalent” that can be redeemed within hours should the need arise.

Flu –

Reduce the probability of occurrence & time frame: I have no opportunity to affect this event on a large scale. On a family scale we can self-quarantine for a substantial amount of time removing our exposure to others. We have personal protective equipment that can add a layer of protection should we be forced to be around potential carriers. We have multiple levels of planning to “bug-out” to alternative locations that are less likely to be occupied.

Reduce the severity should it occur: We have a basic supply of over-the-counter medications. We also have a supply of basic antibiotics. We have a significant supply of vitamins to supplement our immune system.

Police State –

Reduce the probability of occurrence & time frame: This event is inevitable, every civilization that has ever existed has ended up as a police state. We are already well into a police state at this point in our country’s history. It has become institutionally and culturally embedded. There is no reversing it. However, that being said, I can be aware of it currently, and each step in the future where it gets worse. I can seek out those political candidates that oppose it and vote for them. I can protest steps that entrench it even more (i.e. military vehicles, automatic weapons, grenade launchers, etc. being given to local police departments). Finally, I can speak of it whenever and wherever appropriate to those who will listen to reason and logic, helping to make others aware of it so they too can take steps to resist it. 

Reduce the severity should it occur: This is a tough one. I can basically take all the “Severity” steps listed above and place them under this single event. I must have the following ability:

1 – Ability to defend myself and my family against oppression and violence.
2 – Ability to provide medical care to my family, group and community.
3 – Ability to communicate with others outside of normal media and communication channels.
4 – Ability to provide food without normal dependence on the regular food distribution chain.
5 – Ability to provide, filter and purify water.
6 – Ability to provide a minimal amount of power outside of the normal power grid.
7 – Ability to identify and group together with others who also wish to resist police state occupation (i.e. martial law) and organize accordingly.
8 – Ability to “bug-out” to alternative locations where the police state might not be as bad.

To be able to accomplish that list of missions/tasks, I need to:

1 – Have a sufficient supply of weapons and ammunition on-hand.
2 – Have sufficient medical training and supplies.
3 – Have multiple layers of non-standard communications capability.
4 – Have food storage and ability to grow a sustained food supply.
5 – Have water storage and the ability to obtain more. Plus have filtration and purification capability.
6 – Have a generator, stabilized fuel, and the associated technology to use it. Have a solar generator and properly sized storage capacity.
7 – Find people that feel like I do and coordinate a response plan.
8 – Identify people outside of my area that are willing to enter into a reciprocal agreement to take in each other should the need arise.

What was interesting that I am sure you may have just recognized is this…

“Prepare for the worst and hope for the best!”

By preparing for the worst possible scenario that is inevitable you actually have prepared for all the other potential events. The only difference is what event to prepare for first.

I would suggest going through your list of Potential Events and rate each one. Then chart them out so you can see which your greatest threat with the most risk is. Once that is identified start looking for what the individual components of the event are. Now, take that list and start identifying what you can do to limit the probability of the event from occurring, or should the even occur what can you do to reduce the severity of the impact it will have on you, your family, your group, and your community. The resulting list will give you clear indication on where you should focus your time, energy and money.

I would suggest that you not look beyond the “community” level at this point. Actually, I would start with the steps to reduce the impact to just your family. Once that is firmly accomplished then move on to your “group” and then finally “community” can be your final goal.

I hope this series of articles has helped you with a valid and reliable way to identify threats/risks and how to minimize their impact through preparedness activities. As I close this series of articles I would propose to you that this system will also work in any environment where risk/threats must be assessed and mitigated. That would especially be true to mission planning. In the planning process identify the risks associated with the mission. Then work down the list of each risk on how to reduce the probability that the risk would occur, and then if it occurred how could the severity of impact be reduced.

This is a valuable tool in the prepper’s toolbox, good luck!

2009 - 2020 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved
No reproduction or other use of this content 
without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com
See Content Use Policy for more information.

There will be threats and risks to you and your family during any emergency, disaster or “grid-down” event. This is the second article in a series designed to help you systematically identify those threats and risks, then rate them according to the potential affect they can have on your family. Once that is established it makes it clear what your preparedness priorities are (or should be) and how to make your plan.

In the previous article in this series, I introduced the Threat Matrix and ran through a brief exercise on how to use it. The value in such a valid and reliable systematic approach to defining and identifying threat potential is without equal. If you don’t know and understand the threats you will face, how do you ever expect to properly prepare for them? If you haven’t read the first article I would highly suggest you do so now. <Click to read the article now>

Here is the Threat Matrix that I introduced previously –

In the exercise in the previous article I asked you to just guess when rating the “Probability” and “Severity” aspects of the chart. Now I will give you some concrete definitions to go by. You can use mine or use them to give you ideas on developing your own definitions. Either way, once you are done, you will have a valid, reliable, and consistent approach to defining risks and threats.

This chart gives you clear guidance on how to define the “Probability” rating and what the “Timeframe” outlook will be. This will give you consistency when rating threats and risks to future events.

The next chart gives you clear definitions of the potential “Severity” or impact of the event –

This chart gives you clear guidance on how to define the “Severity” rating. This will give you consistency when rating the severity of impact of threats and risks to future events.

The next chart gives you guidance on step #1, listing and rating each threat or risk that you perceive you are facing –

Here is an example –

Here is your homework assignment, list each threat and risk that you feel you, your family, your group or community will face during emergencies, disasters or “grid-down” events. Then rate each item for probability and severity. Add the two numbers together and divide by 2 for the “Final Rating” in the worksheet.

Yeah, I know. It looks like a bunch of school work. And you are right, it is “prepper” school work. If you didn’t learn valid and reliable ways to properly assess risks and threats how else would you do it? Seriously!

Now, one more piece of the puzzle before I close this article, the mitigation that should take place for each category of risk and threat that appear in the pretty colored Threat Matrix.

Concern Level and Mitigation Efforts to be taken –

Little: Maintain awareness of these events, their timing and potential to move-up the scale should be reviewed and discussed regularly. A plan should be developed and discussed identifying the events and the potential trigger points that could move them to a more severe or higher probability rating and the resulting impact. These potential events should be formally reviewed at least every 3 – 4 months for movement; weekly in times of emergencies, disasters or “grid-down” events.

Moderate: A written plan for corrective action must be completed within 60 days, mitigation begun within 6 months and completed within 12 months. The action plan must include steps to avoid the potential for serious injury, disability and the potential for death for the more significant events. A written plan should be developed identifying the potential trigger points that could move them to a more severe or higher probability rating and the resulting impact. These potential events should be reviewed at least monthly for movement; weekly in times of emergencies, disasters or “grid-down” events.

Serious: Corrective action must be taken quickly and decisively within 30 days to prevent significant sickness, injury or to cope with significant infrastructure break-down. Monthly status monitoring of these potential events must take place. A written plan on the criteria and trigger points must be developed for steps to take should the situation worsen. Additional correction actions to be taken must be implementable within 24-hours should a situation worsen. These potential events should be reviewed at least monthly for movement; daily in times of emergencies, disasters or “grid-down” events.

Critical: Immediate corrective action required within 10 days to prevent immediate or imminent death or permanently disabling injury. Daily status monitoring of these potential events by leadership must take place. A written plan on the criteria and trigger points must be developed for steps to take should the situation worsen. Steps to take must be written and made known to all family/team/group/community members. Actions to be taken must be implementable within an hour should a situation worsen. These potential events should be reviewed at least weekly for movement; at least daily in times of emergencies, disasters or “grid-down” events.

I hope this has helped you understand how risk & threat assessment can help you think clearly, rationally and logically when it comes to prepping. With this system you can correctly figure out what your biggest threat/risk is, how likely it is to occur, how severe of an impact it will have on your family and what to do about it.

In the next article in this series I will present my top nine risks or threats that I feel are worth identifying and rating in the Threat Matrix. Then I will explain how to “mitigate” the risk or threat. Look for this coming article, it will be worth the time to read!

2009 - 2020 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved
No reproduction or other use of this content 
without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com
See Content Use Policy for more information.

In my day job I was responsible for ordering my folks to take risks; sometimes we risking our lives. It’s just what we do…and we were OK with that. It was our duty.

As “preppers” we must also understand threats & risks, how to rate them with a valid & reliable system, and then how to mitigate those threats and risks so they don’t destroy our family or group. I will do all of that in this series of articles.

Now, WARNING!…if you like fluffy prepper articles this is NOT for you. This series of articles will requiring thinking and learning. It will require effort. So, if you are a fair-weather prepper giving lip-service to this, if it is simply a hobby, then move on to another website article.

However, if you put in the time and will are willing to learn…you might just learn stuff that could one day save your life…or that of your family.

Moving on…

As firefighters we take the most risk by being unhealthy and driving our fire trucks. Yeah, movies and TV shows would like you to think the greatest risk is running into some burning building, flames licking at our heels, roofs crashing in and the like. But that is TV and movie stuff; our greatest risks are vehicular accidents and not staying in-shape and healthy. When I moved into the wildland firefighting side of things the chance/risk of being in a “burnover” did go up significantly but has not replaced health and traffic accidents as the primary risks.

So what does this have to do with “prepping” and “grid-down?” Everything! Yes, I will explain but I had to set the stage and get your attention first.

So what are some of the ways that you might get sick, hurt or dead when the grid-goes down or a more mundane disaster or emergency hits:

1. Violence
2. Lack of medicine or medical care
3. Poor communications
4. No organization or plan
5. Dehydration
6. Exposure
7. Starving

So, now that you have a general list what do you do? I say you start to narrow down more specifically what exact events might take place to cause those things to happen.

Why do this? So you can take steps to reduce their impact. Why reduce their impact? So you and your family don’t get sick or die.

If you’ve been reading my articles for any length of time you know I like proven and reliable “systems” to guide me in my prepping. Systems greatly reduce mistakes when implemented correctly. And they do so by diminishing the impact of bias and opinion. Both bias and opinion can harm preparedness spending, direction, and plan implementation effectiveness.

I’ve already shared how to set priorities and make effective and consistently high-quality decisions in the preparedness world. That system is called L.I.P.S. and you should take a moment to read about it if you haven’t already.

OK, I listed above some of the ways you can become a casualty. And that list comes from events; some are disasters, some are emergencies, and my favorite, “grid-down.” But all of those terms describe a broad category of events, we want to talk about specifics. Doing so will then make it very clear where we want to direct our preparedness efforts and money. The specific events fall into a general systematic definition called “risk.” Each potential event is a risk to our health and safety, and that of our families.

There are two aspects of risk that we are concerned about; 1) probability, 2) severity.

Probability simply means, how likely the event is to occur. And in the prepper world I extend that to, and in what time-frame relative to now. So I have defined probability as How likely is the event to occur and how soon.

The other aspect of risk is severity. Severity is defined as If the event does occur, how bad the outcome will be.

Combined as a complete definition it reads…

“How likely will the event occur from now and how severe will the outcome be?”

Yes, there is a whole lot of “judgement” that can take place when working with that definition. But not to worry, I will give some guidance on how to reduce “guestimates” and deal more with sound judgement.

Now that we have identified the two main players in “event risk” and the yardstick to judge the probability and severity, we can discuss how to increase our chances of surviving the identified event with its associated risks. And it is actually very simple two-step process; 1) reduce the probability that the event will occur, 2) reduce the severity of impact to our family. That process is called “risk mitigation.” And the process is best described by example:

In the early 1960’s safety experts became very concerned about vehicular accidents and the growing fatality and injury rates. So they embarked on reducing both; and they did so by looking at how people were getting injured and being killed. Then they began to look at ways to reduce the probability of vehicle accidents and reduce the severity of accidents should they occur. By using the two-prong approach they knew that should they be successful, fewer people would die and/or be injured.

Probability that a vehicle accident would occur – How did they approach this aspect over the last 60 years?

1. Increasing the driving age.
2. Requiring driver training for new drivers.
3. Adding side mirrors.
4. Improving roads, signage and traffic lights.
5. Back-up warning.
6. Lane encroachment warning.
7. Auto-braking.

Severity should a vehicle accident occur – How did they approach this aspect over the last 60 years?

1. Seat belts.
2. Shoulder belts.
3. Nader pins in car door frames.
4. Crumple zones.
5. Air bags in the dashboard.
6. Side air bags.

Each step they took reduced the probability that a vehicle accident would occur, and if one did occur, the severity to those inside the vehicle would be reduced. I am sure you could apply that same thought process to any number of aspects of life, including your working environment. OSHA has made a whole industry and legal system doing so.

How does this system apply to prepping? Exactly the same way!

Let’s do an example to test that statement. Many, if not all disasters, would present the risk of lack of water supply. So the identified risk is “water supply.” How probable is a safe and stable water supply affected by any given emergency, disaster or grid-down event? I can tell you this, any grid-down will stop any municipal water supply pretty quickly; same goes for most disasters. And try buying bottled water even during an  emergency event. So the probability of lack of water supply is almost assured.

So, how do you reduce the probability that you would run out of water for your family?

1. Water storage.
2. Water filtration capabilities.
3. Identifying a close-by water source (stream, lake, river, run-off pond, etc.).
4. Drill a well or install a large capacity storage unit.

So by identifying ways to mitigate the probability that your family will suffer from lack of water supply you are coming up with solutions to a problem. But what about the severity aspect of no supply of safe drinking water?

If you think about it, it becomes pretty plain. No water supply means dehydration. Dehydration leads to incapacitation…and death pretty quickly thereafter.

But now that you have identified the probability of it occurring and the severity of it occurring you are in a better position to make decisions on time, effort, and budget considerations when dealing with preparedness priorities. Water supply would be a pretty high priority.

So for an exercise to better show how this would work let me introduce the Threat Matrix –

Without getting into any formal definitions, take our list of threats that I discussed earlier and rate them according to the scale of 1 – 10 for probability and severity on the chart above as it relates to you and your family as of right now. And this will be for any emergency, disaster or “grid-down” event you can think of. Or you can combine those three possibilities together. Don’t worry about the exact definitions of the terms Probability and Severity. Just make your best guess. We will go over the terms in more detail later. The threat list items are:

This is my rating for events and associated risks that I think would occur and how they would affect my family right now.

So the “matrix would now look like this –

So, taking a look at the chart, ask yourself, “Based on the level of concern on the chart, what should we work on first?” Well, it becomes clear for me what my primary risks are –

1. Violence
2. Lack of medicine or medical care
3. Water supply
4. Food supply
5. Exposure

So I identified the risks and set them in priority, it is up to me to then define how to mitigate those risks. For me it would be pretty obvious that mitigating the “violence” risk would be my #1 priority right now. And how do I do that?

1. Learn about Situational Awareness (SA).
2. Identify specific violent risks through SA and mitigate those risks.
3. Have a weapon for each member of the family and they are well trained in its use.
4. Keep a low profile, not drawing attention to the family or house.
5. Leave the area.
6. Don’t tell anyone about our preparedness capability.

I hope that this makes sense to you. My goal is to give you a clear way to identify the risks you and your family have as you prepare for emergencies, disasters and grid-down. This system, when properly applied, will give you a way to competently identify risks/threats and then design a plan to reduce the risk. And reducing those risks is a matter of reducing the probability that it will occur and reducing the effects on your family should it occur.

In the next post I will give you the way to define probability and severity to make your Threat/Risk Matrix more valid and reliable. I will also show an example of using this same system and apply it to larger scale events. Yes, we will look at events and determine which are the most likely to occur. When we are done doing that you will be able to identify the individual risks for each. And you will then see which preparedness priorities are right for you and your family. Then you can develop your plan.

2009 - 2020 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved
No reproduction or other use of this content 
without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com
See Content Use Policy for more information.