SitRep – 4/25/20

To say I am pessimistic about the future of the USA would be somewhat of an understatement. And I mean that wholeheartedly…unfortunately.

Economy –

Oil: Oil is absolutely collapsing…and that is bad thing beyond belief. First off, you may be enjoying a reduction in fuel prices at the gas pump…no complaints there. But the bigger picture is far more ominous. I have written before about a significant destabilizing effect it has on oil producing nations’ economies such as Russia and Saudi Arabia. Drastic reductions in national incomes from oil and gas production can lead to those countries taking drastic actions to maintain stability among their populations.

Once aspect of the oil price war is China coming out on top. No, not as an oil producing nation but as a net oil consuming nation. Their oil and gas costs drop dramatically. And as regional oil producing nations destabilize, do you think China will miss an opportunity to take advantage of that situation?

But, the primary concern I have is our domestic oil production. It hasn’t been that long ago that the US became, not just oil independent, but a net oil exporter. Being oil independent is a very stabilizing event for the US on the world stage. Oil producing countries such as Russia and Middle Eastern countries lose their ability to affect our economy and foreign policy when they can’t blackmail us through oil.

With the price of crude oil hovering around $16 a barrel our domestic oil industry has to grossly curtail operations. That is bad enough. But, the real problem comes once the economy recovers. It is very difficult to ramp up oil production to meet skyrocketing recovery demand. That could well make us a net oil importer again. And worse yet…many of our domestic oil production industry companies may never survive.

Real-Estate: I have been watching the real-estate market closely…the macro market. And once again…not good. A strange phenomena is taking place; 1) there is a notable drop is sales activity, 2) there is no corresponding drop in home prices. Sellers seem to be holding steady on home prices even though there is a drop in the number of home buyers. Without lowering home prices many buyers will hold off purchasing waiting for lower bargain prices. And with skyrocketing unemployment many earlier potential buyers are now unable to qualify, let alone pay for a new home.

Regardless of how fast we can turn the economy around there is going to be a lag in people wanting, and able, to buy new homes…they will be trying to simply catch up on paying delinquent bills. But, I do see a “surge” of home buying once we turn around, but it will be short lived and only from a small percentage of people who were able to whether the financial storm. In the mean time I still see a 30 – 40% drop in home sales in the coming months, maybe a year.

Bankruptcies: There are companies that specialize in assisting retail companies in going out of business. They work with those retailers to hold “final sales days”, sell off fixtures and other assets, sell building and real-estate, etc. In other words…they help retail business close their doors…normally including bankruptcy.

The top companies in this field are getting flooded with calls from retailers. And one expert made a statement that should be terrifying for our economy…he said, “A thunderstorm of bankruptcies in retail are about to rain down on Wall Street thanks to the aftershock of the coronavirus.”

This appears to not apply to just a few major retailers…but dozens. And it is being confirmed by Wall Street investment firms now. We could be looking at a change in the retail world the likes the United States has never seen before.

Depression: You’ve heard media pundits talk openly about a recession from government’s actions regarding COVID-19. In the shadows those same pundits have hinted about the potential for a depression. I’ve spoken openly about it, as a few others have. Now we have government officials talking about it. Just days ago the Governor of West Virginia stated we could be looking at a “full-fledged depression.” And his only qualifier was this…if we don’t get our economy open and running again within 30 days we are done.

Now, one governor does not set the course for the USA, nor does a single governor saying it, mean it will happen. But, it opens the door for others to speak their mind. If you see “depression” become a topic that is openly and more freely discussed…then bank on it.

State and local governments are now seeing significant shortfalls in normal funding sources, primarily taxes. Los Angles, California for example is expecting to fall hundreds of millions behind this fiscal year. Layoffs, pay cuts, and reduced replacement hiring is expected. Cuts and/or reductions in services is also anticipated along with those personnel/payroll actions. And we are now hearing talks about state governments going bankrupt.

Politics –

Something I’ve been watching since this whole COVID-19 thing began…the election this fall…and any possible disruptions or outright cancelation. Yeah, call me paranoid but when you have something like this touted worldwide plague…TPTB and a long list of politicians and other power brokers will think of a way to use it. And use it to their advantage…big time!

We know that the coup against Trump began during his campaign, developed into an official FBI field operation after his election, and became an interagency coordinated operation after his inauguration. All that has become documented fact through numerous official government investigations and investigative journalism.

What I find interesting is two-fold:

  1. Just as the final report was due out from the DOJ, from a supposedly bulldog investigator, COVID-19 breaks out and everything is put on hold.
  2. I raised the alarm of a potential COVID-19 impact on the election back at the beginning. Now we are hearing regular news leaks, government sources, and plenty of politicians speak of three things…mail-in voting, election results being delayed, and Trump delaying the election. First off I don’t give any credibility to Trump delaying the election. But, the other two issues are real and should be of grave concern. First is the mail-in voting…easily corrupted and manipulated by those who so desire…from the political parties on the ground all the way to the state governments who coordinate counting the final tallies. Second is any delay in the results. And I mean “any” delay means that the results have been corrupted/manipulated. And if Trump would be officially reelected I guarantee that the Democrats and the violent left will scream that the election is tainted and throw the government into a crisis…or overthrow it outright.
Government –

You already know the following to be true:

  • Massive new federal debt, kind of debt acquired in a year now acquire in weeks
  • Massive new state police powers acquired, rights, liberties, and freedoms taken from people…especially religious
  • Massive misinformation, deceit, and propaganda

Statistics and poll numbers now prove it.

Society –

Anti-anxiety medications up over 1/3rd. People are stressing out and becoming medicated even more than before the crisis. Worse yet could be the self-medication going on…drug and alcohol abuse.

We have gone from hearing about food chain disruptions now turning into worldwide famine

The country is now basically splitting the country into two. One side are those benefiting from the transfer of wealth taking place (the rich) and those benefiting from the power grab (i.e. politicians and government workers). On the other side are those losing the wealth and power. Those who are now unemployed, losing their small business, losing their life’s savings, and being forced to stay home, etc.

Threats, Risks, & the so far “unknown” –

I’ve seen a lot in 65 years…a President killed and another almost, seen a dozen wars, several mild recessions, a couple of tough ones, seen stock markets near-crashes, watched real-estate bounce up and down like tennis ball, watched the country go from relatively free conservative country to a raging liberal/progressive cesspool, and even watched as various flu seasons killed nearly 80,000 people at a time. But, I’ve never seen a time in the US as we are seeing now. And as you well know…it ain’t good!

I am backing up on my “probability” estimate of an economic and/or societal crash in the USA. I still think the probability is there…but less than 50% on both now. Why? Because I am seeing indicators that show that a “crash” is not what is wanted by the powers in control. At least not a crash yet. Why not now? That is the real question…and I am not a 100% sure I know the answer. But, I do think they want more wealth transferred from the average person to the super-elite-ultra-wealthy-power-players. So no crash…yet.

But do not think for a minute that I consider that means we are out of the woods and life will go back to normal. Nope! No sir, life will never, ever go back to normal. We are looking at a massive reset of what is considered “normal”…and it ain’t good. I think we are looking at some cataclysmic times ahead. How bad? Well, let me explain it in terms of “threats”…

I am now on day #4 writing this SitRep. I’ve been researching the different issues and making sure I had my facts down right…let’s call them the “dots” if you don’t mind. But isolated facts, issues, or events don’t mean much if they don’t mean something together. Being able to see the relationship of each individual dot to the others, if such relationships do exist, is the vitally important aspect to all of this. That process is called “connecting the dots”…and this morning I think I put it all together while I was pondering what was happening and why.

I am sure ya’ll beat me to the punch on all of this and I am simply playing catch up. But, please indulge me and see if what I write next will help you.

Let’s review the facts, the absolute facts: 1) We know a massive transfer of wealth is taking place…to the tune of trillions of dollars. Those trillions are going to the super-rich, the world’s monetary elite. 2) Government at every level is growing stronger. Meaning they have significantly more power over people now than they did just a few months ago.

But, this morning I still knew that to be true but also felt there was something else happening…something that dwarfed both of those by an order of magnitude. Then it dawned on me…Overton Window!

“Joseph Overton observed that in a given public policy area, such as education, only a relatively narrow range of potential policies will be considered politically acceptable. This ‘window’ of politically acceptable options is primarily defined not by what politicians prefer, but rather by what they believe they can support and still win re-election. In general, then, the window shifts to include different policy options not when ideas change among politicians, but when ideas change in the society that elects them.”

That rang a bell the likes I haven’t seen/felt in a very long time. We are seeing the most significant, massive, historic Overton Window shift in perhaps the last 100 years! I think even deeper, longer, more significant…and only the start to a more historic set of events.

Let me share this with you first… Death Stats in the USA:

  1. About 650,000 die each year from heart disease
  2. About 600,000 die each year from cancer
  3. About 170,000 die each year from accidents
  4. About 160,000 die each year from COPD, bronchitis, emphysema, & asthma
  5. About 145,000 die each year from stroke and cerebrovascular diseases
  6. In the 2017 – 2018 flu season over 80,000 died from the flu

So far from COVID-19 the government claims about 55,000 people have died. But 1/2 of the country believes the government is lying about those numbers. But, let’s say the government stat is correct.

We have a relatively minor cause of death occurring in the US but we see the economy ruined, unemployment the highest since the Great Depression, “social distancing”, toilet paper shortages, and all levels of government able to shut down society, etc.. For goodness sakes we are seeing mothers arrested for having their children in a public park!

Why? Why the reaction, overreaction, to this event?

I explained the first two: 1) transfer of wealth, 2) government power grab. But it is the third that is the devastating! An Overton Window shift.

We are seeing a massive shift in acceptable public policy. Meaning: what we, the public, are will to accept from the government…what we are willing to accept them doing to us.

How else could you explain what the government is doing? Mandating 6’ social distancing, shutting down eating in restaurants, closing schools throughout an entire state, controlling how many people can be in a store at one time, and the list goes on and on…and on…and on…

Another way to look at it…we are being “trained” to accept what government dictates…for our own well-being.

And that should scare the hell out of you!  But, it gets worse. Ask yourself

“What are they training us to accept next?”

Summary –

I can’t possibly summarize what I’ve already shared…you either believe it or not. It is entirely up to you. So I will use the “summary” section to share with you what I think you should consider doing…and what I am doing.

The most simplistic way to explain it…”Prepare to live as independent of the system as you possibly can.”

Yup, that simple…and that monumental. But, I am telling you, the more you can survive independently of the system the most likely you will be to retain your freedom, rights, and liberties…as much as possible. The more dependent you are on the system, the more you will be controlled…and  that means the more rights, liberties, and freedoms you will lose.

Let me share this with you…THIS IS NOTHING NEW!!!  I’ve been explaining in detail for years how to accomplish this. You must recognize that there are, and will be, 7 threats/risks that you will have to mitigate. To understand those threats/risks and information on how to address each, read the articles:

Of course you MUST read/know 7 Common Risks/Threats

If you read those articles now you understand the basics. Now what? Have a plan!! Before you develop that plan I suggest you read the following articles. If you have already read them, review them again.

OK, now for the specifics…ah, no! You have to develop your plan, specific to your situation. But I would suggest a couple of things:

  • Stay aware and find others that are similar minded
  • Be flexible and adaptable, work with others to be the same
  • Put in a garden, help others put in a garden
  • Keep your vehicles at least 3/4 full of fuel
  • Keep at least one 5gal can of fuel safely stored
  • Have multiple ways to cook food
  • Have multiple ways to stay warm
  • Have a bugout location identified and at least 3 ways to get there

And the list goes on.

But here is the #1 thing you can do to survive what is coming…KNOW WHO YOU ARE!!!

I am telling you plain and simple…you must know who you are, what you believe in, what you know to be true, and how far you will go to back that up. If you are not firmly anchored as a person you will fall prey to government, wolves, the fear mongers, the hype hustles, the control freaks, and every other danger/threat/risk that is coming.

If you don’t have a firm foundation…build it now! If you have a firm foundation…reinforce it now! And help others to do the same. When all is said and done this won’t be about wealth transfer or government control…it will be about who you are…or what you allowed them to make you to become.

This is the largest transformation of society this world has seen in 100 years…maybe longer. You will either fall victim to those change merchants…or you will hold fast to the rock, your foundation…and you will have helped others to do the same.

Be careful…be aware…be vigilant…be prepared. It is coming.

 

 

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