3/17/2020 – 0800

COVID – 19

Background –

CIVID-19 discovery was announced in December of 2019 in China, it showed up in the United States early in 2020, it became a problem for the US in February when the panic began…and the panic that is occurring is now in earnest. Although repeatedly COVID-19 has proven to be a relatively minor flu problem compared to the regular flu season (in terms of deaths), a sense of panic has developed. The panic, bred from fear and hysteria, has been promoted by almost every sector imaginable. The media, government sources, leftist politicians, some well-meaning medical personnel, and most of all, commercial enterprises such as some prepper websites, have successfully created that sense of panic to a point where it is becoming almost unmanageable.

We are seeing local and state governments taking extraordinary actions that they are claiming will help control the spread of the virus. However, those same actions are creating, or fueling, that sense of panic and will push civil disturbances and violence, let alone simple discontent. Another spin-off from the hype hustler actions is panic buying. That is a situation, driven by emotion, where people are buying supplies far, far beyond what they would normally purchase. They are in “survival mode”; having food and other supplies around them gives them a sense of security and safety. However, we are seeing that panic buying pushed to extremes.

Last Friday I was in Walmart for our weekly food run and some other purchasing. I reported on that experience in my SitRep – 3/12/2020 (updated 3/15/2020). Over the weekend I heard stories of more panic buying, some associated violence, and significant shortages. I wanted to verify that information for myself before commenting on the situation.

On Monday afternoon when I went to several stores I noticed a number of situations:

• Walmart shelves were less bare than on Friday, but very far from normal amount of food items. At the rate people were shopping I would expect those items to be gone within a couple of hours, at most, of my visit. And another interesting note…a much wider variety of items where either gone or in shorter supply than on Friday. I attribute that to the more commonly purchased items having run out of stock and folks were purchasing less-popular, less-common substitute items.
• I also went over to the pharmacy section at Walmart to assess the status on vitamins, specifically vitamins related to boosting an immune system. Vitamin C, B-Complex, B-12, Zinc, Potassium, Magnesium, etc. were all gone. While there I noticed, as I did on Friday, it appeared to me that the pharmacy personnel were busier than normal. But, that is antidotal information only. And, I did notice that there was not a single person in line to pick up medications.
• However, as I was approaching a sporting goods store in a local strip mall I noticed a small pharmacy that was in the same strip mall. I walked in and was pleasantly surprised to find all immune system boosting supplements with the exception of Zinc. No bare shelves, no shortages other than Zinc.
• I had received reports of ammunition shortages, bare ammunition shelves, and long lines to purchase guns. Some of those were rather dramatic in nature. I went to a local strip mall that has two sporting goods stores of major retail chains. Neither store was out of ammunition. Quite honestly, neither store appeared to have a low stock of ammunition on their shelves. Also, one store had no one looking at their large selection of guns. The other store appeared to have the same situation going on, but I couldn’t tell for sure. Bother stores had a full rack of guns on display. And yes, Walmart had the same situation as well with the exception that there were two people in Walmart buying ammo. But, they were small amounts…not stocking up for a firefight. So I was unable to substantiate the ammunition shortage stories and gun panic buying.
• Local and state governments are increasingly taking drastic and unwarranted actions. Those actions are feeding the flames of fear and increasing the state of panic. We are seeing governors ordering the closures of restaurants, theaters, bars, concerts, sporting events, schools, and banning meetings of various sizes from 10 – 100. Some mayors have taken even more draconian steps. And at least one mayor has banned the sale of firearms. President Trump himself alluded that he is resisting nationwide travel restrictions, curfews, etc. However, and this is vital information…he has not ruled it out.
• A business from of mine who deals in various prepper supplies told me yesterday that ALL of his suppliers told him they are out of all food storage items as well as ALL other regular prepper supplies. And they wouldn’t commit to a date when those supplies would be available.
• Finally, I am beginning to receive reports that shortages of truck drivers are starting to roll into me. Now, I have not observed that situation personally nor have I been able to verify those reports with credible sources. It’s all antidotal information at this time.

Warning Specifics –

As different levels of government continue to tighten controls on the private citizen’s travel, activities, etc. we see a pattern developing that is a cause for concern. I would expect to see government entities at the state-level and below continue to increase travel restrictions, enact curfews, close more businesses, government offices, and similar actions. I would not be surprised to see even more, and similar, steps taken by the federal government in the next 7 – 10 days.

As we see panic buying continue, and possibly increase, we could well see even greater shortages of essential goods for sale. If that continues, combined with the reports of truck driver shortages, we could experience a significant disruption of the supply chain in the US. We are already seeing a serious disruption in the supply chain due to reduced shipments of goods from China. US stock piles of essential goods could soon be depleted due to those disruptions.

I am advising you to prepare for significant shortages of essential goods.

At this point in time I see we could be looking at significant shortages of pharmaceuticals. The potential for seeing complete depletion of supplies of some pharmaceuticals is possible should the supply chain disruption situations continue or worsen. Some food items from any source could become very scarce as well. I am uncertain about ammunition supplies but my gut feeling tells me that we could see wide-spread shortages, as opposed to local shortages only.  I sense that guns could fall into that same category, just not as quickly.

Actions to Take –

Steps to consider…

1 – Immediately assess your situation in regards to food, water, and pharmaceuticals.

2 – Food: I am referring to pantry items and long-term food storage. Have a minimum of 30-days of food on hand, 90 day supply would be far more preferable.

3 – Water: With regards to water have a minimum of 14 days of stored water on hand and a way to purify water for a period of at least 90 days.

4 – Pharmaceuticals: I include medications and supplants in this category. If possible acquire a minimum of 60-day supply of medications, 90-day would be preferable. For immune system boosting vitamins and supplements I would recommend having 90-day supply on hand. And don’t delay in taking them, start taking them now. Obviously I am no doctor or other medical professional. Before taking any medication, vitamin, or supplement consult your physician and follow their advice.

5 – Guns & Ammo: If you are short on ammo…SHAME ON YOU! You should not be in this situation. If you are, go buy some ammo today. If you don’t have a gun…well, you probably shouldn’t buy one now because you also probably don’t have any training with one. If you do have weapon’s training but no weapon, then you might want to go purchase an appropriate weapon along with sufficient amounts of ammo, magazines, pouches, etc.

6 – FirstAid Supplies: Assess the supplies you have on hand and evaluate if you need to purchase more, or supplement what you have.

I would advise that any purchases you feel are necessary should be made without delay. Stocks of any of the mentioned items could dwindle, possible disappear, without any significant advanced warning.

Summary –

As I have stated before; 1) this is an unprecedented situation, 2) fear has gripped more of the US than even last week, 3) panic buying is well underway and will worsen, 4) supply chain disruptions have occurred and are worsening, 5) restrictions are being put into place at all levels of government and are worsening, 6) more “unknowns” exist now than even last week. My sense is we could see the panic situation get even worse; potentially drastically worse.

If you have been following my website for any length of time you will plainly see that for years I have been giving clear information on what supplies to have and how much. I can only hope you followed those guides and took appropriate action. However, if you are short in some areas of preparing you still have a window of opportunity to make purchases to help your situation. But…DO NOT PANIC BUY!!

Use a level head, common sense, and sound decision making to identify those items you may need to purchase. The…DO NOT delay in making those purchases. I would also advise you to have a Plan B and Plan C for each item on your list. If they don’t have “A”, purchase “B”. If they don’t have “B” purchase “C”.

Stay calm and carry on like the decent and mature person you are.

Useful Links:

• FOOD: Part 1 – Introduction
• WATER: Part 1 – Introduction
• MEDICAL CARE: Introduction
• Choosing the Right Gun

2009 - 2020 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved
No reproduction or other use of this content 
without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com
See Content Use Policy for more information.

3/13/2020 – 0800

COVID – 19

I began considering issuing this “Warning!” last night, this morning I don’t see any alternative…I have to issue it. Before I get into the substance of it I want to say that I am embarrassed, humiliated, and deeply saddened to have to issue this statement. But the current situation makes it the prudent thing to do. Here goes…

Background –

COVID-19 is a disease caused by a virus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The COVID-19 name comes from coronavirus identified in 2019. Coronaviruses were first identified 60 years ago, are common, and almost everyone becomes infected by a coronavirus at some point in their life, normally as a child. A coronavirus can appear in humans and animals. The most common yearly time frame in which the virus is spread is Fall and Winter.

Best estimates are the COVID-19 virus first appeared in China in December 2019 according to Chinese sources and World Health Organization (WHO) sources. Best available credible numbers indicate that as many as 3,000 –  4,000 Chinese citizens may have died from the COVID-19 virus. That is approximately .000003% of their population (if I did the calculation correctly).

The COVID-19 virus has now spread to a large portion of the world. Best estimates point to less than 6,000 deaths to date worldwide attributed to COVID-19. That is an almost incalculably small percentage of the world’s population. But, for perspective purposes the number of deaths from COVID-19 represents approximately 1% of the deaths of a normal regular flu season. Or .0002% of the deaths that occurred during the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918.

As a result of the appearance of the COVID-19 in the United States we see large corporations taking some unusual steps:

• Closing offices
• Forcing personnel to work from home
• Terminating travel
• Canceling large and small meetings
• The NHL and NBA have suspended their seasons
• The MLB has delayed the opening of their season

Also many states’ governors have taken the following actions:

• Closed all schools
• Banned gatherings of people
• Restricted travel
• Activated large-scale Emergency Operations Centers
• Activated the National Guard or notified them of potential activation

And those governors have done so primarily through declarations of emergency.

The federal government has taken the following actions:

• Declared a Health Emergency
• Restricted travel to/from China
• Enacting a ban on travel to/from Europe
• Implementing telework options for employees
• Earmarked billions of dollars for a COVID-19 response
• Considering declaring a national emergency
• The Federal Reserve has created almost 2Trillion dollars and pumped it into the banking industry and the stock markets, as well as considering lowering the FedFund interest rate to zero

And we are seeing a near crash of the stock market…although the stock markets are bouncing back really well this morning. The markets have fallen significantly in the last couple of months and are now in near bear market territory. If the panic continues we could see the potential for a moderate crash of the stock markets. The same could be said for some sectors of the commodities markets.

Virtually all media is 24/7 with news reports, many partially or wholly fictional, concerning the outbreak and the current status of COVID-19. Websites are listing dozens, if not hundreds, of articles a day, many of which are not based in fact but based almost solely on opinion, or are fabricated stories all together.

As for “prepper groups” or the “prepper community” it appears to be just as bad. Over the last couple of months I have seen, generally speaking, the prepper community fare no better than the general public, perhaps worse in some cases. I am witnessing prepper websites pushing the fear, panic, and hysteria as widely, or more so, than the media in general. They are publishing articles without regard to authenticity, author qualifications, accuracy of figures, etc. Some of the websites are also promoting goods and services along with their hyping of the situation for profit and gain at the expense of the public welfare.

One of the largest prepper/patriot organizations in the United States just issued a plea to state and federal government leaders to take drastic emergency measures against COVID-19. Unfortunately those measures include restricting or eliminating Constitutional rights and freedoms.

As a result of the panic, hysteria, and fear being generated from almost every angle of society we are seeing panic buying in stores and online. People in a fearful frenzy are buying items as if this were an apocalyptic end of the world event. Many stores are not able to keep up with demand of essentials such as toilet paper. They are also mostly sold out of items such as hand sanitizer, disinfectant liquids and wipes, etc.

Warning Specifics –

As the panic continues to worsen, as fears deepen, as the hysteria grows we will see an increase in potential for violence, maybe even extreme violence. People may gain more of a mob mentally becoming irrational as essentials become more scarce or non-existent in stores and/or online…and as they fall victim to the panic pushers.

We know from sad experience that looting, rioting, and violence accompany irrational people who get swept up in a mob mentality of fear and panic. We are quickly approaching that point with the COVID-19 virus scare.

I am advising you to prepare for potential violence.

That potential violence could be against any member of your family, or your family as a group. That threat of violence could come in the form of threats of physical harm as in extortion, or actual physical harm, be it from gunshot or blunt force trauma.

There is no limitation on location where the violence could occur. However, it is most likely to occur in a public place after dark, in or around vehicles, in a larger population center. It would probably be in close proximity to a drug store, grocery store, general merchandise store, or camping/survival/hunting retail outlets. It is least likely to occur close to, or in, your home unless you are a prepper and your status as a prepper is known.

Actions to Take –

As outlined many times on my website, the threat of violence is the #1 risk in any emergency, disaster, or grid-down situation. While serious, there are steps you can take to mitigate the potential for, or severity of, violence.

Steps to consider are:

1 – Increase your Situational Awareness.

2 – Train family members in Situational Awareness.

3 – Review your security plan. If you don’t have one, develop one. Discuss with your family parts of the security plan that apply to your situation. Do NOT scare your family or create a panic situation within your family. Outside sources have already done enough damage through promoting fear, panic and hysteria…you don’t need to make it worse with those you love and cherish.

4 – Take prudent steps to secure your home from intrusion, especially intrusion as night.

5 – Avoid large public gatherings/crowds.

6 – If you are in a store or other public location and a confrontation occurs, leave immediately.

7 – Ensure all weapons are functional, cleaned, and ready to be put into action. Magazines are cleaned, readily available, and ammunition loaded.

8 – No family member travels alone.

9 – No child travels without an adult.

10 – One adult is always armed (conceal carry) when outside the home.

11 – Weapons for home defense are readily available for use.

12 – If you have a home defense plan that is coordinated with a neighbor or group, discuss the situation with them.

13 – Ensure the safety of ALL family members around firearms! The safety of children is especially important…do not jeopardize their safety around firearms!

14 – Review the “7 Common Risks/Threats” (click here) and take actions based on what you feel is appropriate for you and your family after careful consideration, pondering, and prayer.

15 – Make sure you have a 60 – 90 day supply of all medications on hand at all times.

16 – Keep a minimum of 3/4 of a tank of fuel in your vehicle. Maintain a minimum of a 5-gal can of fuel in reserve stored in a safe place.

17 – If violence breaks out in your community consider a “blackout” condition on your home at night. Meaning…make sure no visible light from inside your home can be seen from the outside of your home.

18 – Review your medical aid kits. Update items as needed. Review basic First Aid skills.

Summary –

The fear merchants and profiteers have won. They have created an atmosphere of panic and hysteria. In this situation the panic and hysteria is growing and will continue to grow. Expect to see violence, looting, and even rioting. The potential for these to occur continue to grow as long as the fear is encouraged to grow. And at this point…almost every source of information, almost every politician, almost every organization is promoting panic and hysteria…which leads directly to fear. Fear will drive the violence as it always does.

When most people get hungry they will have no problem taking food from you and your family. If they are sick and you have medicine they will have no problem taking yours. If you have shelter or any other essential of life and they need it, they won’t hesitate to take yours. This also applies to their perception of their need or their perception of your possession of the fulfillment of that need.

Again, I apologize for this “warning”…I truly do. I hesitated to send it out but felt an obligation to get information out to you for your consideration. It is not my desire to add to the fear, panic, or hysteria…there is enough of that going on already through ignorance or personal agenda. This warning is strictly for consideration to keep your family safe from the potential of violence.

Potentially useful links:

• Situational Awareness: Introduction
• Situational Awareness: Part 2 – Micro & Macro
• Situational Awareness: Part 3 – Barriers to SA
• Situational Awareness: Part 4 – Team SA
• Situational Awareness: Summary
• 7 Common Risks/Threats
• Layering & the Common 7: Introduction
• Layering & the Common 7: Part #2 – Violence
• Layering & 7 Common Risks/Threats: Part #3 – Injury or Sickness
• Layering & the Common 7: Part #4 – Communications
• Layering & the Common 7: Part #5 – Organization
• Layering & the Common 7: Part #6 – Dehydration
• Layering & the Common 7: Part #7 – Exposure
• Layering & the Common 7: Part #8 – Starvation

A great series of articles that I bet you would find interesting and helpful… Days of September – 8/29/2019

If you would like information on home security you might like to read…Grid-Down House Security : Strengthen your door…

If you would like more information on medical kits you might like to review…MEDICAL CARE: Introduction

If you haven’t already read my SitRep from yesterday you may like to get up to speed there as well (click here)

2009 - 2020 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved
No reproduction or other use of this content 
without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com
See Content Use Policy for more information.