3/13/2020 – 0800

 

COVID – 19

I began considering issuing this “Warning!” last night, this morning I don’t see any alternative…I have to issue it. Before I get into the substance of it I want to say that I am embarrassed, humiliated, and deeply saddened to have to issue this statement. But the current situation makes it the prudent thing to do. Here goes…

Background –

COVID-19 is a disease caused by a virus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The COVID-19 name comes from coronavirus identified in 2019. Coronaviruses were first identified 60 years ago, are common, and almost everyone becomes infected by a coronavirus at some point in their life, normally as a child. A coronavirus can appear in humans and animals. The most common yearly time frame in which the virus is spread is Fall and Winter.

Best estimates are the COVID-19 virus first appeared in China in December 2019 according to Chinese sources and World Health Organization (WHO) sources. Best available credible numbers indicate that as many as 3,000 –  4,000 Chinese citizens may have died from the COVID-19 virus. That is approximately .000003% of their population (if I did the calculation correctly).

The COVID-19 virus has now spread to a large portion of the world. Best estimates point to less than 6,000 deaths to date worldwide attributed to COVID-19. That is an almost incalculably small percentage of the world’s population. But, for perspective purposes the number of deaths from COVID-19 represents approximately 1% of the deaths of a normal regular flu season. Or .0002% of the deaths that occurred during the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918.

As a result of the appearance of the COVID-19 in the United States we see large corporations taking some unusual steps:

• Closing offices
• Forcing personnel to work from home
• Terminating travel
• Canceling large and small meetings
• The NHL and NBA have suspended their seasons
• The MLB has delayed the opening of their season

Also many states’ governors have taken the following actions:

• Closed all schools
• Banned gatherings of people
• Restricted travel
• Activated large-scale Emergency Operations Centers
• Activated the National Guard or notified them of potential activation

And those governors have done so primarily through declarations of emergency.

The federal government has taken the following actions:

• Declared a Health Emergency
• Restricted travel to/from China
• Enacting a ban on travel to/from Europe
• Implementing telework options for employees
• Earmarked billions of dollars for a COVID-19 response
• Considering declaring a national emergency
• The Federal Reserve has created almost 2Trillion dollars and pumped it into the banking industry and the stock markets, as well as considering lowering the FedFund interest rate to zero

And we are seeing a near crash of the stock market…although the stock markets are bouncing back really well this morning. The markets have fallen significantly in the last couple of months and are now in near bear market territory. If the panic continues we could see the potential for a moderate crash of the stock markets. The same could be said for some sectors of the commodities markets.

Virtually all media is 24/7 with news reports, many partially or wholly fictional, concerning the outbreak and the current status of COVID-19. Websites are listing dozens, if not hundreds, of articles a day, many of which are not based in fact but based almost solely on opinion, or are fabricated stories all together.

As for “prepper groups” or the “prepper community” it appears to be just as bad. Over the last couple of months I have seen, generally speaking, the prepper community fare no better than the general public, perhaps worse in some cases. I am witnessing prepper websites pushing the fear, panic, and hysteria as widely, or more so, than the media in general. They are publishing articles without regard to authenticity, author qualifications, accuracy of figures, etc. Some of the websites are also promoting goods and services along with their hyping of the situation for profit and gain at the expense of the public welfare.

One of the largest prepper/patriot organizations in the United States just issued a plea to state and federal government leaders to take drastic emergency measures against COVID-19. Unfortunately those measures include restricting or eliminating Constitutional rights and freedoms.

As a result of the panic, hysteria, and fear being generated from almost every angle of society we are seeing panic buying in stores and online. People in a fearful frenzy are buying items as if this were an apocalyptic end of the world event. Many stores are not able to keep up with demand of essentials such as toilet paper. They are also mostly sold out of items such as hand sanitizer, disinfectant liquids and wipes, etc.

Warning Specifics –

As the panic continues to worsen, as fears deepen, as the hysteria grows we will see an increase in potential for violence, maybe even extreme violence. People may gain more of a mob mentally becoming irrational as essentials become more scarce or non-existent in stores and/or online…and as they fall victim to the panic pushers.

We know from sad experience that looting, rioting, and violence accompany irrational people who get swept up in a mob mentality of fear and panic. We are quickly approaching that point with the COVID-19 virus scare.

I am advising you to prepare for potential violence.

That potential violence could be against any member of your family, or your family as a group. That threat of violence could come in the form of threats of physical harm as in extortion, or actual physical harm, be it from gunshot or blunt force trauma.

There is no limitation on location where the violence could occur. However, it is most likely to occur in a public place after dark, in or around vehicles, in a larger population center. It would probably be in close proximity to a drug store, grocery store, general merchandise store, or camping/survival/hunting retail outlets. It is least likely to occur close to, or in, your home unless you are a prepper and your status as a prepper is known.

Actions to Take –

As outlined many times on my website, the threat of violence is the #1 risk in any emergency, disaster, or grid-down situation. While serious, there are steps you can take to mitigate the potential for, or severity of, violence.

Steps to consider are:

1 – Increase your Situational Awareness.

2 – Train family members in Situational Awareness.

3 – Review your security plan. If you don’t have one, develop one. Discuss with your family parts of the security plan that apply to your situation. Do NOT scare your family or create a panic situation within your family. Outside sources have already done enough damage through promoting fear, panic and hysteria…you don’t need to make it worse with those you love and cherish.

4 – Take prudent steps to secure your home from intrusion, especially intrusion as night.

5 – Avoid large public gatherings/crowds.

6 – If you are in a store or other public location and a confrontation occurs, leave immediately.

7 – Ensure all weapons are functional, cleaned, and ready to be put into action. Magazines are cleaned, readily available, and ammunition loaded.

8 – No family member travels alone.

9 – No child travels without an adult.

10 – One adult is always armed (conceal carry) when outside the home.

11 – Weapons for home defense are readily available for use.

12 – If you have a home defense plan that is coordinated with a neighbor or group, discuss the situation with them.

13 – Ensure the safety of ALL family members around firearms! The safety of children is especially important…do not jeopardize their safety around firearms!

14 – Review the “7 Common Risks/Threats” (click here) and take actions based on what you feel is appropriate for you and your family after careful consideration, pondering, and prayer.

15 – Make sure you have a 60 – 90 day supply of all medications on hand at all times.

16 – Keep a minimum of 3/4 of a tank of fuel in your vehicle. Maintain a minimum of a 5-gal can of fuel in reserve stored in a safe place.

17 – If violence breaks out in your community consider a “blackout” condition on your home at night. Meaning…make sure no visible light from inside your home can be seen from the outside of your home.

18 – Review your medical aid kits. Update items as needed. Review basic First Aid skills.

Summary –

The fear merchants and profiteers have won. They have created an atmosphere of panic and hysteria. In this situation the panic and hysteria is growing and will continue to grow. Expect to see violence, looting, and even rioting. The potential for these to occur continue to grow as long as the fear is encouraged to grow. And at this point…almost every source of information, almost every politician, almost every organization is promoting panic and hysteria…which leads directly to fear. Fear will drive the violence as it always does.

When most people get hungry they will have no problem taking food from you and your family. If they are sick and you have medicine they will have no problem taking yours. If you have shelter or any other essential of life and they need it, they won’t hesitate to take yours. This also applies to their perception of their need or their perception of your possession of the fulfillment of that need.

Again, I apologize for this “warning”…I truly do. I hesitated to send it out but felt an obligation to get information out to you for your consideration. It is not my desire to add to the fear, panic, or hysteria…there is enough of that going on already through ignorance or personal agenda. This warning is strictly for consideration to keep your family safe from the potential of violence.

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Potentially useful links:

• Situational Awareness: Introduction
• Situational Awareness: Part 2 – Micro & Macro
• Situational Awareness: Part 3 – Barriers to SA
• Situational Awareness: Part 4 – Team SA
• Situational Awareness: Summary
• 7 Common Risks/Threats
• Layering & the Common 7: Introduction
• Layering & the Common 7: Part #2 – Violence
• Layering & 7 Common Risks/Threats: Part #3 – Injury or Sickness
• Layering & the Common 7: Part #4 – Communications
• Layering & the Common 7: Part #5 – Organization
• Layering & the Common 7: Part #6 – Dehydration
• Layering & the Common 7: Part #7 – Exposure
• Layering & the Common 7: Part #8 – Starvation

A great series of articles that I bet you would find interesting and helpful… Days of September – 8/29/2019

If you would like information on home security you might like to read…Grid-Down House Security : Strengthen your door…

If you would like more information on medical kits you might like to review…MEDICAL CARE: Introduction

If you haven’t already read my SitRep from yesterday you may like to get up to speed there as well (click here)

 

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