Watch for my post tomorrow morning!!!
I’ve never done a post like this before…you might want to see it…
and I would appreciate it 🙂
How sure are you that there will be a stock market crash in 2025?
Great question, trick question, touchy question…difficult question.
Remember I use the risk management model for what I think is coming. That includes probability, severity, and timeline. You can learn more about that methodology by < clicking here >
When I look at past occurrences of market troubles here in the US it becomes apparent that any stock market issue here in the US ripples out globally pretty quickly. There is truth in the saying “when America sneezes, the world gets a cold.” To me, any stock market crash here in the US will be devastating to the US economy as a whole…and it would bring down the entire economic/financial system. That would spread worldwide quickly and with devastation. All that being said I would rate the severity aspect as ‘extreme’.
Now comes the tricky part…probability. Based on pure facts, 100% historical facts…there is a 100% probability that the US stock market will crash and the entire US economy along with it. Which goes first is another discussion, economy vs market. The ‘timeline’ to that probability is unknown in my opinion…but it will definitely happen. I am guessing within 10 – 25 years for sure.
But that doesn’t answer your question. Your specific ‘timeline’ qualifier changes the equation considerably.
Here are some factors that I am taking into consideration:
2024 Presidential election
Two presidential candidates that appear to be polar opposites and the country split pretty evenly in their support
Current financial condition of the US economy
Here is one that I struggle to quantify…the elites lust for absolute power.
We all know that Biden is nothing more than a figure head, he is clearly not running the country, it is not possible for him to do so. He is close to entering the final stages of dementia and he is totally incapable of leading this administration. So there is a power structure behind him that is calling the shots and running the government…I call them the Elites.
Then you have Trump who has a very vocal and passionate base of support…along with a fair number of crazies in that bunch capable of just about anything. Trump’s legal problems are well-known and he is facing the real possibility of prison time. But I doubt that his base would sit-by and allow that to happen.
These campaign/election/selection issues make the country very, very unstable right now. That instability alone could tank the markets on any given day. But there is also the very real threat of the elites behind Biden using a crash as a tactic to forego, delay, or dramatically move the election/selection.
Taking all this into consideration there are several ‘timeline’ and ‘probability’ combinations between now and the end of 2025. It looks something like this:
Timeline = by election day / Probability = high (very high if is looks as if Biden will lose by a landslide)
Timeline = after election before inauguration / Probability = very high (if Trump wins)
Timeline = after election before inauguration / Probability = low (if Biden wins)
Timeline = between now and end of 2025 / Probability = moderately high (regardless of who wins)
Want to know what the “experts” are saying?
Now, back to your question…
I am not confident that there will be a ‘crash’ by the end of 2025…according to my ‘gut feeling’. The operative word being ‘confident’. That being said…my head tells me that all the key economic indicators show that a crash by the end of 2025 is virtually unavoidable. And there are plenty of ‘experts’ to back that up. So there is a serious conflict for me on what will happen. Then add in the whole election/selection thing and it gets real cloudy.
So what to do?
You have to make up your own mind on what to do for you and your family…I can’t make that decision or give you advice on that. For me and my wife…well, we are playing both games. Here’s what we are doing:
Here is an ‘unknown’ to consider…the Elites plan. By that I mean, the elites running this country have a plan. The goal of that plan is an authoritarian state, they have made that clear on a number of occasions. The easiest way to implement the final stage(s) of their plan is martial law, or something similar. The easiest way to do that is having the citizenry in a state of panic, chaos, anger, desperation, and fear. The single easiest way to trigger all of that is a stock market crash and/or a bank run. At any time the Elites could push either of those buttons. So the big ‘unknown’…the Elites plan with their timeline.
My advice…pray, plan, prepare, practice.
I know I wandered around quite a bit on you trying to answer your question…I hope I was of some help.
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What is your proposal in place of a two-party political system? Thanks for the great article!
RE: Points/Events in History Destroying the United States
I don’t have one off the top of my head. I would have to go back and get seriously into the weeds regarding what our Founders set-up originally and why. Then I would look at the natural evolution with today’s technology. Example: Transporting ballot boxes by truck/van/car vs horse.
That being said…It would take an act of Congress, more likely an Amendment to the Constitution, to get it into law. Do you see either the House or the Senate willing to pass such a law? And if they did, can you imagine any President signing it into law? As for an Amendment…can you even begin to imagine enough states ratifying such an Amendment to make it Constitutional?
In my view…there is ZERO chance that we can eliminate a 2-party system via the government. Both parties are drunk on the power they have…and no way they would forego hundreds of millions of dollars, maybe billions, that they take into their party and candidates’ coffers! Their (Republican & Democrat Parties) lust after power and wealth way ahead of what is good for the country. They will give up neither wealth nor power…regardless of how good it would be for the country.
Okay, so there are two chances to eliminate the 2-party system that I have mentioned before:
1) Divine intervention
2) We the People
2009 - 2024 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved No reproduction or other use of this content without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com No legal, economic, or financial advice is given, no expertise to be assumed. See Content Use Policy for more information.
You are 100% wrong about the economy! I see it doing very well. I am making good money, just bought a house, and contribute every payday to my 401k. Why do you spread disinformation?
Wow! You are very fortunate indeed. You are an anomaly in this economy. The label of your experience is commonly referred to as a positive micro-economy. The wider economy (i.e. the national US economy) is refereed to as the “macro-economy” and is doing very, very badly…and virtually every signal shows that to be true.
The difference between macro and micro is significant, but you have probably already been exposed to those terms prior to this response. For commonality, macro refers to a large sampling, micro to a very small sampling of whatever is being discussed.
Example #1: The global economy (macro-economy) might be doing poorly, but Vietnam’s economy (micro-economy) might be doing very well.
Example #2: The US economy (macro-economy) might be in very rough shape, but the Texas economy (micro-economy) may be booming.
Example #3 – a more extreme example: The US economy (macro-economy) might be tanking, but your personal/family economic situation (micro-economy) might be very stable and doing quite well.
Look at it this way…macro is the whole pie, micro is one bite of one piece of that pie. The pie could be a raspberry and blackberry pie with equal amounts of both kinds of berries. But, if your one bite has only 1 raspberry in it, then you could argue that it is only a raspberry pie when in-fact the whole pie is an equal combination of both.
Now, it doesn’t matter what is driving a micro-economy to be doing better than a macro-economy…there could be endless numbers of reasons. For example; 1) a job promotion with bonus and raise, 2) a very large commission check from a sale, 3) a high-demand job that pays extremely well, etc.
But let there be no doubt sir…the US economy is on life-support and will fail (or already has). Let me give you an example of ‘experts’ recently since you evidently don’t believe me:
The above are news stories from last week when I was originally responding to your question raised. Let me add the below, a partial list of layoff issues for 2024:
Remember that this disastrous economy is being felt by everyone, even the big boys…UPS expects to layoff 12,000 people this year. And don’t forget that tech companies have laid off 100,000 people so far in 2024 with huge numbers still expected. For a name-brand sampling…Tesla is expected to layoff 14000 people, Google 12000, Microsoft & Meta 10000 each, Amazon 17000, etc, etc, etc.
So believe what you will, your choice. And I am certainly glad and grateful that you are doing so well. I hope you are spreading some of that financial love around to those in need such as your church.
But let me leave this with you from 2 days ago…
“There’s a stock market crash coming in 2025 as the ‘bubble of all bubbles’ bursts,” says Harvard Business School economist Harry Dent. Dent estimated that the bubble has been forming for the past 14 years, far longer than most bubbles in history, which typically last for five or six years before bursting, he said.
“That’s partly because markets have been flooded with stimulus since the 2008 downturn, Dent said. Markets have benefited from around $27 trillion in stimulus since the financial crisis, he estimated, based on accumulated budget deficits and the amount of cash printed since then.”
“Bubbles are not followed by recessions. They’re followed by depressions,” Dent said. “I can tell you there has not been one bubble — and this is far larger and longer — on major bubble in history that has not ended badly, period.”
Find the nuggets in there and see what you think.
You know…I am no expert and probably wrong about the economy…don’t you think? Well, at least I hope and pray I’m completely wrong.
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When did the USA crash & burn?
First off, let’s agree what “crash & burn” means. I believe you are referring to transitioning from a Constitutional Republic established by our Founders to the hideous and oppressive political monster we struggle under today. That being the case…
I am not convinced that there is a single event that can be pointed to that destroyed the US as a Constitutional Republic…or rather began its destruction. To fully understand that path of destruction I think it wise to understand what the Founding Fathers saw as a threat to the new Constitutional Republic and how to avoid it.
The Founders saw utter evil in:
Once the colonies defeated the British Empire they desired to establish safeguards against such a tyrannical and oppressive government taking root in America. To that end they established preventative ideals/principles:
So all that being said, here are the points in history that I believe have led the US federal government to become even worse, far worse, than the British Empire ever was:
In my opinion you can take each of these history points and directly apply them to the destruction of each of the 6 principles/ideals of the Founders…the foundation of the former US Constitutional Republic.
Ironically all the events noted above have occurred under both Democrat and Republican Presidents, and under both Democrat and Republican controlled Congresses. That to me points to one thing…the parties are one-in-the-same…there is no fundamental difference in their true intentions, motivations, and goals. Sadly our very first President, George Washington, rang the warning bell loud and clear over 200 years ago against the threat/danger of a two-party political system…and we as a country ignored that warning.
By ignoring that warning and allowing the unbridled lust for power and money to prevail in our political system we find ourselves suffering under an even worse situation than the British imposed on the early American Colonists. Today, tyranny, oppression, and despotism through an all-powerful, out-of-control federal government rules over us. The Democrats and Republicans have achieved their initial goals…but they aren’t done yet.
To me there is only a single, multi-faceted, answer to fix this, if there is one at all, and that is:
Until such occurs, or divine intervention itself, the US has collapsed, the Constitutional Republic is a long forgotten ideal, and evil reigns in the US.
The absolute sad part…I believe that Americans are truly, essentially awesome good people with big hearts and compassionate souls. The national cancer is the US federal government…and it has been intentionally killing everything good and right in America bit-by-bit for over a hundred years. Americans deserve more than this federal government, its masters, and the ruling class.
What I have done next is identify the Founders’ ideals/principles into categories and then listed each historic event under that category to show the destruction of that ideal/principle.
God/Morals/Righteous Nation
Limited Federal Government
Militia Style Military (no professional, standing army)
Free-Markets (free economy)
Non-Fiat Currency & Non-Modern Monetary Policy
Ability to Resist/Defeat Oppression & Tyranny
It was not my intention to include every single historic event that has led to a failed and destroyed US Constitutional Republic. Rather, I have listed what I believe to be the most significant primary events that have directly destroyed the very foundation of our country that our Founding Fathers believed in, fought for, died for, and eventually established via our Declaration of Independence, Constitution, and Bill of Rights.
Anything other than a restoration of the principles, ideals, and values contained in the Declaration of Independence, Constitution, and the Bill of Rights will simply perpetuate the evil gripping the USA. We now suffer under a US Empire system that is no better, actually worse, than the British Empire that our forefathers fought against and died defeating.
Make no mistake, have no doubt, these are intentional and planned events in a grand scheme. A scheme to turn the US into an authoritarian/totalitarian state that benefits only a select few. These events did not occur in a vacuum or randomly by chance. It is all planned…and there is more of their evil to come…but not much more because their plan is almost complete. And that is what you must be aware of…and prepare for…there is nothing that can stop their plan…nothing. Well, other than a restoration or divine intervention. And I don’t see any group of people who are committed enough, brave enough, and knowledgeable enough to restore the Republic. At least not at this point.
And no…there is no Republican or Democrat candidate/politician that is committed enough, brave enough, and knowledgeable enough to lead a restoration. It has been the Republicans and Democrats behind the plan and implementing the plan all along.
Oh, just as George Washington warned us about…and we’ve ignored.
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So my wife gets into a minor exchange on Facebook the other day with a person who couldn’t understand how and why people think the economy is doing poorly. My wife tried to explain the price of basic necessities, including gas, etc. The woman wasn’t having it..
The woman wrote back with this completely fabricated (i.e. total lie) chart showing the price of gas this time of year for the previous years. And her chart showed that gas prices now are just about the same as they were under Trump and Obama.
I nearly fell on the floor with disbelief that someone could be that dumb misinformed!
Last night I had a few minutes on my hands so I decided to look up the price of gas since 2016 (Obama’s last year in office). Here is the real gas price chart…
Folks…people are either blithering idiots or have been dramatically drawn into some fantasy world when it comes to the economy. And people are utterly delusional if they think that Biden’s economy is doing well. There is NOTHING about the economy that is doing well…NOTHING!
And worse yet…these folks are willing to outright lie about it.
And then this dingbat misinformed woman tried talking unemployment rate being so much lower under Biden…sheer stupidity!
Let’s look at people actually working (labor force participation rate):
According to the US CPI:
For housing market…here are the objective and results between 2019 & 2024…Bidenomics:
Yes! You read that right…the average mortgage payment for the average home in the US under Biden is more than a $1,000 per month greater than when Trump left office!!!!!
Under Biden:
And it just goes on and on and on and on…
Don’t get suckered into these idiot’s, criminal’s, thieves’, liar’s, manipulator’s weird delusional fantasy world. Know the facts and prepare to deal with them.
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RE: I’d be interested in your opinion on RFK jr being a viable candidate (both electable and useful).
Well, first off I am super glad to hear you are thinking outside the box and not stuck in traditional thinking…traditional thinking is to blame for our
country’s condition. Just asking that question about RFK shows intelligence, initiative, and a sincere desire to see America back on the right path.
I could give you the short answer…ok, I will…kinda. First off let’s make sure we agree on ‘viable’ meaning ‘capable of success’ (i.e. possible). Now let’s answer the ‘electable’ first. The answer is yes if voters went strictly by issue positions…especially so if in terms of an out-of-control tyrannical federal government. If only considering strictly anti-American philosophy (i.e. traditional thinking)…no, he is not a viable candidate. More on that later.
Now, ‘useful’…yes, in terms of showing TPTB that we the people will not tolerate the current, or any, anti-American two-party political system. RFK would have both parties working against him regardless of what would be good for America. Hence, RFK would fail at nearly everything as President…unless the citizenry stood up and took down the anti-American two-party political system.
Now, realistically speaking is there any chance RFK would/could be elected? No. Plain and simple…no. Why? Because virtually all Americans
have been led astray into a two-party political system. Both parties are only concerned about power…getting it, retaining it, and wielding it. Wielding it about 99.9% of the time against what is best for America…yes, both political parties.
George Washington warned us against a two-party system…he said it would destroy America. And it has. A two-party political system is a virtual mirror image of the empire our Founders detested and fought against. So the Republican and Democrat parties are not pro-America…they are both anti-American and against the intent of the Founders. And that my friend is why America has failed and fallen.
FWIW…Remember who killed RFK’s father and uncle.
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Yeah, everyone is talking about Trump being found guilty by the New York kangaroo court…not me, not yet. What is far more important is the crumbling economy and its potential impact on you and your family.
We all heard about Red Lobster last month…first, closing nearly 100 locations, then filing for bankruptcy. Then comes the news that Family Tree and Family Dollar are closing 1,000 locations. In my last SitRep I relayed that “Commercial Chapter 11 business reorganization filings shot up by 72% in 2023.”
Well, try this on for size…
Back to Red Lobster and Family Dollar/Tree…that is 20,000 – 25,000 employees losing their job right there. But it also means lower income folks losing a major source of lower cost essential items available to purchase. And, more than 1,100 vacant store fronts no longer producing commercial incomes for their owners. Yeah that adds up to about $2million a month of lost rental income hitting the economy. Think of the combined ripple effect on the US economy. The numbers start looking like this…1) over $50million in direct lost $’s, 2) about $200million in indirect $’s lost. And that is just from Those two corporations having financial problems. AND…that is per month!
We already know all forms of debt (government, commercial, credit card, auto, mortgages) are at an all time historic high. We also already know that debt payment delinquencies are at similar historic highs. As far as US government debt…it is entirely unsustainable and in no realist terms can it be paid off. And think about this one…more Americans that ever before are using credit cards to pay basic living expenses.
Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan Chase CEO) recently talked about the debt market. In that statement he said in reference to any wobble at all, “There could be hell to pay!” Well, think about these issues on top of everything else:
It goes on and on and on! So what does it all mean?
I have been relating to readers for years how step-by-step the US economy is crumbling, falling, crashing…being destroyed. These things should come as no surprise to anyone here.
I can’t tell you what to do…I am no expert. But I can warn you again what we are doing…we are preparing for the “crash”, the “collapse”, the whatever you want to call it. For us the writing is on the wall…it is just a matter of when. And we think the “when” is soon.
As I have written about before:
Prepare accordingly. Prepare quickly.
2009 - 2024 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved No reproduction or other use of this content without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com No legal, economic, or financial advice is given, no expertise to be assumed. See Content Use Policy for more information.