7/6/2023

US Economic Situation / Collapse

Background –

First:

I want to remind folks about my methodology regarding these warnings. I use a “probability & severity” model called risk management. I calculate how probable an event could be, and how soon (time-frame). I add to that if the referenced event does occur how severe of an impact it could have. If I see a notable swing in the probability to an alarming point then I review my severity outlook. If a combination of both reaches a significant point I write about it.

What my warnings are not…my warnings are not 100% predictions of something that will occur. I try to calculate my best guess on the probability but I rarely hit 100%. The severity guess is also a rough estimate, I have no way to predict exactly what it would/will be. I simply do my best with the information, experience, and knowledge I have.

Also, remember I have been saying for years that the economy has been going downhill for over 100 years, essentially since the creation of the Federal Reserve and the Federal Income Tax. And it is easily proven using such key indicators as the price of a home relative to income, or the price of homes (or pretty much anything else) to gold or silver prices. And also think back to the times I have proven that the middle class (middle income) has been dying off for about the last 50 years.

So the economy as we know it will crash totally at some point, 2 years or 20 years, but it will collapse, that is a 100% surety.

Or, as I have stated for years, we could wake up on any given day and it is over…banks closed, businesses shuttered, markets collapsed and closed…money worthless.

Economic Starting Point:

Remember, I already believe that the economy has crashed. Meaning, it has already gone off the cliff and hit the bottom, and we are simply waiting for the extent and timing of the damage to ripple outward. We have already begun that ripple and are feeling the early stages of the pain…there is much more to come.

US Empire:

I wrote extensively on the absolute fact that the Unites States of America is an “empire” in every aspect, including the “fall” aspect of an empire. And the US Empire is falling, that is an absolute indisputable fact. < click here to read about it > It is vitally important to understand this whole “empire” aspect to truly grasp what has been happening, what is happening, and what will absolutely happen.

Current Economy:

• • • Last week a paper was published by the Fed that stated an historic percentage of American companies were in extreme danger of failing due to the Fed’s inflation fight. They said clearly that high credit costs could cause “huge” numbers of companies to go out of business…starting with a notable upswing very soon. The “huge” number of companies going out of business that they are talking about? That number approaches 40% of ALL American companies. Did you even hear a minor squeak regarding that report out there in the media?
    • More and more market veterans are saying that the recession is coming, or already here, and it will get much worse. I won’t list them all, but the list grows longer by the day.
    • And now consider this from one of the nation’s top morons…Treasury Secretary Jannet Yellen has now said Americans should anticipate a decline in the USD as the world’s reserve currency. What she failed to mention, that experts have been warning us about, is how quickly it is happening, how soon the dollar will fall completely, who is doing it to us, and the devastating effect it will have on the US economy. Our declared enemies are the ones doing it to us. You know, the ones who control almost all the trade with us, the ones who control most of the world’s oil & gas production, the ones who control a huge portion of the world’s food production, the ones who control almost all of the rare earth minerals, and who combined, dwarf our military.
    • Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell came out and talked about inflation last week. He was doing the typical understating tactic. But even then he was warning about inflation is here to stay for years. What he didn’t say was the full truth. Inflation is here, it is rampant, it is high and it is getting higher for the basics of life that affect the middle and lower income classes. The rich are not impacted to the degree that others are due to their disposable income and accumulated wealth. The lower income class is not affected as badly due to the wide range of government welfare program available to them. Those most affected will be the middle income class that continues to shrink…as it has for 50 years.
    • The M2 money supply has shrunk at an historic rate, more than in the last 90 years. The last time that the M2 has shrunk that must was…wait for it…The Great Depression era. FYI…a large component of the M2 is the amount of money that companies and consumers have available in bank accounts, all forms of savings accounts, retirement accounts, etc. Yeah, look at it as the money reserve of every person and company in the US is drying up.

Narrative –

I’ve been keeping you informed of the American economy for years through this website, producing at every turn hard facts and figures that the economy is tanking. Well, it already has tanked actually, that is impossible to dispute with evidence and logic. We are now just waiting to see how painful it will become and when the actual final crash/collapse of all it takes place.

Now here is one last piece I want to add in today that may stagger you a bit. Well, it won’t if you have been reading my SitReps and Warnings over the years. In January of this year I explained the massive employment problems we are having, especially in terms of layoffs. But I have been warning you about these layoff problems since April of 2020. Here is the chart you should see and digest to get a true picture of the scope of what is happening with the American economy…

If you did the math in your head we saw nearly 40,000,000 (yeah, 40million) layoffs between May 2022 – May 2023. Breaking it down just a bit more…7.93million layoffs the first 3 months, 8.55million the last 3 months. That is 8% increase. Meaning…the layoff problem is getting worse…and rapidly!

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Note: Yes, many of those folks have found other work, many haven’t. A growing number of those folks aren’t even looking for work anymore. And that is proven by the alarming decrease in the Workforce Participation Rate. A disturbing underlying fact…the average wage of those returning to work after having been laid off is lower than prior to their layoff.

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This layoff evidence reinforces the M2 problem I mentioned earlier…companies are running short of cash reserves; and to save money they are laying off people. And the people that are being laid off are using all of their savings to pay bills. All of which reduces the amount of money that companies and individuals have in savings.

But here is the real takeaway number that I want you to think about…there are about 167million people in the American workforce, nearly 40million have been laid-off in the last 12 months…that is 23% of the American workforce has been laid-off in the last 12 months!!!

Now factor in current interest rates…which the Federal Reserve has been raising for quite a while now. In good times if a company fell short of payroll funds they would just do a short term loan to cover it. They can’t now…because the Fed raised interest rates so high…to fight inflation that is bad and getting worse.

Now ask yourself this…well, wait till the end for the question.

• • • Inflation is not getting better, it is getting worse…and the Fed Chairman just told us there is no end of inflation for years to come.
    • People are losing their jobs (40,000,000 people) and burning through their savings…at an average rate of 3million+ people per month.
    • Many of those folks burned through all of their savings so Americans have run-up historically massive amounts of personal debt…that they are now paying higher interest rates on.
    • The Fed just told us that we are looking at potentially 40% of American companies going out of business due to high interest rates. And corporate debt is at historic highs.
    • And the Treasury Secretary finally admitted publicly we are losing the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
    • The US national debt is catastrophically high, approaching $32,000,000,000,000 (32trillion dollars).

So here is the question, a 2-part question; 1) Is this happening due to incompetence or according to a plan? 2) How much longer can we last?

If it is ‘incompetence’ why have we allowed/accepted it to happen?

If is is some kind of ‘plan’ why haven’t we stopped it?

If you think we can’t last much longer…what are you doing about it?

Warning Specifics –

The ‘probability’ of a total and complete collapse/crash of the economy has grown much higher in the last couple of months and the recently revealed signs of it have become brazenly and officially made public in the last 10 days. Meaning, the ‘probability’ of an overnight collapse/crash of the economy has grown significantly while the time-frame has moved it much closer. The ‘severity’ has not changed…it still stands at ‘nationally devastating’.

Suggestions & Thoughts –

This is something I have not ever discussed before on this site, or outside of my closest circle, personal debt. There are two schools of thought regarding debt in mainstream prepping; 1) debt is bad, get out of debt, 2) debt doesn’t matter, no one will be left to collect it.

In an all-out nuclear war or even a widespread and devastating EMP…maybe #2 might be true. But, I feel those are extreme examples and not likely to occur…’probability’ = very low.

What we do know is…

• • • The economic situation is dire and getting worse.
    • The Fed (and by proxy the US Federal Government) knows everything there is to know about you…what you own, what you owe, and how much money you have and where it all is.
    • The Federal Reserve controls the entire US economy and they are a cabal of private banks working hand-in-hand with the US Federal Government.
    • The US government has made it clear…any US bank in trouble will be saved one way or another.

Now let’s look at the final crash, meaning everything goes belly up. What can the Fed do for the banks in this scenario? They know your debt, they know your cash on hand, and all other assets. Well, could simply suck every dime of yours out of every account you have…virtually instantly? And not a single account you have would be exempt…not one…would they?

And since they also know about all your assets, such as cars and homes, and every other non-monetary asset…they can foreclose on ALL of those assets automatically before you could dial your cell phone.

But they can only do that justifiably if you have debt.

And what is one of the primary/main goals of the World Economic Forum? You will own nothing.

So here is what my wife and I think is a good thing for us:

• • • Get out of debt.
    • Have cash money in hand (obviously safe & hidden).
    • Have tangible assets that will maintain their value, or increase, should times get tough.
    • Be prepared to physically defend those tangible assets.
    • Have plenty of food storage and gardening supplies for 2-years worth of gardens.
    • Keep your preps to yourselves…don’t share with anyone the extent of your preps you have or where they are…including your family.
    • You also might want to read some of my past article for more thoughts.

General Caution –

Watch how you spend your money…especially electronically (debit, credit, etc.)…because they are watching and recording exactly how you spend your money…ALL of it.

Review how you spend your money (i.e. your budget) and cut back the Starbucks, the McDonalds, and vacations…use that savings to dramatically improve your prepper situation.

Keep your eyes wide open…things are changing rapidly…and deteriorating probably faster than you might think. Keep your Situational Awareness high…but don’t become obsessive or get tunnel vision.

Final Thought –

Look, I am no professional economic anything…I am just a guy who is watching what is happening and connecting the dots. You and I both know that the US is in a world of hurt…it is painfully obvious. It is just as obvious that they are trying to keep us fed a bunch of BS and somehow hide the obvious. Don’t fall for it!

But that is only the first step.

I am telling you as plain as I possibly can…you gotta prepare for an economic collapse. Exactly what that will look like I don’t know…no one does for sure. Exactly when it will happen…again, I don’t know…no one does for sure. But ALL of the warning signs are there and they are all flashing bright red and the alarm bells are going off also. You know that in your gut…just about everyone does.

I have no idea what you need to do to prepare for it; everyone’s situation is different. But YOU HAVE TO START PREPARING!!

If the only thing you do to start preparing for it is to think about it, think how it might affect you, how it might affect those around you, including your community, that is good enough. You are a smart person…once you start thinking about it little promptings will come to you on what you can do, what is within your reach that you can do to prepare for this. But please don’t delay starting.

As I told you earlier…it will collapse, crash, fall, whatever…and the chances of it happening sooner than previously thought has grown more certain. The warning signs are there, they are all around you, please don’t ignore them. You know this to be true.

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Related Articles –

• The Fall of the U.S. Empire
• Some serious food for thought…the U.S. Empire
• Heads-Up…the Economy! – (12/10/2021)
• Economic Situation… (9/26/2022)
• SitRep – Economy – 10/3/2022
• Warning Again : US Economy Continues to Fail (10/28/2022)
• De-Dollarization Accelerates

 

 

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