This is an update and expansion of my article on 9/26, Economic Situation… <click here to read that article>
This is a markedly different type of SitRep. I am referring to current news reports from the last 6 days. You can add these reports to the post on 9/26 < click here to read that article >
So, the previous post from 9/26 is added to the following information. Then I will give my summary at the end.
September 27th – Ned Davis Research’s Global Recession Probability Model shows that there’s now a 98% chance of a global recession – which signals a severe downturn and the global macro picture appears bleak. All signals point to that which is a coming severe global recession sometime in 2023.
September 28th – Mohamed El-Erian warns the Fed has lost most of its credibility, and that increases the risk of economic pain as tightening continues and it will cause more economic collateral damage in the US. He went on to say markets were no longer confident that a US recession could be avoided.
September 28th – CoinDesk reported that with markets in turmoil and the recent crash of the British pound and bond market being the latest examples, central banks are facing an acute dilemma…stabilize and saving the global financial markets vs saving country’s economies around the world. It appears that it is not doing either.
September 28th – The verdict from a trading model created by JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists show it is a lock that a recession is all but imminent.
September 29th – World Bank chief warns of an existing “perfect storm” and to prepare for global recession and stagflation. He is joined by global institutions including the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization have both warned that countries around the world are sliding into a “global recession. A pressing danger for the developing world is that the sharp slowdown in global growth [continues to] deepens into global recession.”
October 1st – Bloomberg news service reported that since early 2021 the Chinese stock market has lost $5,000,000,000,000 ($5trillion) in value as their economy continues to tank.
October 1st – Yahoo finance reported that the Fed has the world in its hands — and its aggressive moves are creating global economic chaos that could come back and hurt the US.
October 2 – Climbing interest rates and prices are increasingly putting pressure on people’s finances. And in an effort to make ends meet, they’re turning to pawn shops for what can be low-risk, quick cash. The average is about $150, according to the National Pawnbrokers Association with over 30 million people using these types of loans.
October 2nd – The Wall Street Journal reports ocean carriers are canceling dozens of sailings on the world’s busiest routes during what is normally their peak season. This is the latest sign of the economic whiplash hitting companies as inflation weighs on global trade and consumer spending. Trans-Pacific shipping rates have plummeted roughly 75% from year-ago levels. The erosion in global economic conditions, from the war in Ukraine to factory shutdowns in China, have dealt heavy blows to trade activity..
October 3rd – Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae, “…recession beginning in the first quarter of 2023.”
October 3rd – Oil market analysts say oil prices could soon return to $100 as OPEC+ considers ‘historic’ production cut. An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start of the coronavirus pandemic this week, a historic move that energy analysts say could push oil prices back toward triple digits. This would add significant pressure on the world pushing it deeper into a global recession.
I am not expert by any stretch of imagination, but, it is pretty clear to me on where we are headed…and at best…it ain’t good. I can’t find an reliable expert of any kind that is committed to an optimistic economic outlook for either the United States or the world in general. If you read the info that I gathered it all points to a single near-term outcome…a global recession. And not just a mild one or a little hiccup…but a severe global recession.
So I started thinking about it…if we are in a time of high inflation, slowing job growth, and slow economic growth that means we are experiencing “stagflation.” To get a better understanding I looked for a modern example that would provide more information…Japan in the 1990’s. And it killed their economy for decades.
But, what about a recession. Forbes laid out a pretty clear definition of “recession”…
“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts for months or even years. Experts declare a recession when a nation’s economy experiences negative gross domestic product (GDP), rising levels of unemployment, falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time.”
In other words economic conditions suck! Sorry, it means that people don’t get ahead, could well lose their job, pay more for everything, and poverty increases. Global recession also lays the groundwork for potential wars through competition for resources.
Points to ponder:
- Stagflation and recession both describe declining economic conditions with negative business impacts.
- Stagflation is a period of stagnant economic growth combined with high inflation and high unemployment.
- A recession is a period during which the economy shrinks; it is commonly defined as two successive quarters of declining gross domestic product (GDP).
- Stagflation is rare but can be persistent with devastating effects; in the U.S., it occurred from the 1970s to the early 1980s.
- Recessions occur periodically as part of typical economic cycles of expansion followed by contraction. The U.S. has experienced a dozen recessions since 1945, averaging less than a year each.
So which is worse? Ah, kinda like choosing your poison…both are bad for you.
Either way it looks certain that we are in for a very rough ride. Back on June 23rd in my post title “Intensify“ I stated the following…
“Here is my larger point…as a country we have crashed politically and economically and civilly. We went off the cliff some time back…and we have already hit the bottom…we have felt the ‘thud’…and now comes the real pain…and it will intensify with each passing day, week, month, and year.”
And I was right…I wish I had been wrong…I hope I still might be. But let’s take a deep breath and step back for just a minute. What if this is the start of that global economic collapse? Glenn Beck referred to it as the “Great Reset” and he made a good case for it in relation to, and driven by, the World Economic Forum, Beck even wrote a book about it. What if he is right?
We know for a fact the global elitists control the world’s banking system. We know for a fact the the world’s central banks control every country’s economy, including their banks. And if you look at who controls the central banks we can clearly see what is going on…for their benefit…the global elites. And we know who is behind the “green energy” religion and we know what their ultimate goals are. Seems as if they overlap with an eerie coincidence.
Now connect the dots…
- The global recession is predicted as a certainty by a huge list of experts.
- Global stagflation is being thrown about as a real possibility.
- We saw the British currency collapse last week and it was barely saved due to radical central bank actions.
- We have a major war taking place with it expanding weekly.
- We have the two super powers threatening each other with nuclear weapons.
- We have the “green energy” freaks bringing down the fossil fuel industry in the US and the EU, while the USA’s enemies continue to get rich from fossil fuel production.
- And as a consequence of the “green energy” initiatives we have major energy shortages in both the US and EU.
- We have an existing food production shortage, significant worldwide agriculture industry problems, and a severe food shortage predicted for next year.
Need I go on?
PREPARE NOW for severe economic times…and the possibility/potential/probable collapse of the entire economic system. While the system may not collapse, being prepared for such an event will dramatically improve your personal economic situation…if you do it based on sound monetary/financial principles.
If you have been following this site for any reasonable length of time you know I have been warning you about this for a very long time…years to be exact. If you have not already started taking action…do so now. If you have been plodding along with your plan…expedite the steps in that plan.
But get moving…take action!
Please, I am asking you to make a solid financial plan to deal with our dire economic situation and what is to come. I can’t impress upon you how serious I think this is. I can’t think of anything else to do to encourage you to prepare for this. I can only beg you to get your financial house in order and be prepared for what is to come. If you are prepared for the worst of the economic possibilities then anything less will be much easier to deal with.
Additional Information: Feedback & Comments: 10/4/2022 <click here>
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Disclaimer: It goes without saying, I am no financial genius, I am no economic expert, and I am not anyone but an average Joe relating to you my opinion and nothing more.
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Sadly I think you are spot on. I know there are a LOT of data points on this subject, but this one really stuck out to me:
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Just reported that 60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. That is disgusting and very telling as to the state of the US economy. We are hurting!!