Economic Situation…

note: Sorry for the delay in getting this posted this morning, we were canning peaches.

All of the following are different quotes/headlines/views from news reports…these are not my words. Well, not until the end in the Summary.

September 4th, 2012 Forbes had this to say in a headline, “The National Debt: $16 Trillion Dollars Of Moral, Cultural And Political Decay” and the article went on to say…”borrowers will be slaves to their lenders. Add $120 plus trillion in unfunded forthcoming liabilities and, well, we’re doomed. Cradle to grave reliance on public support undermines families and the private institutions such as churches which should stand between government and the individual. Weakened communities result from a godless federal Leviathan saturating life. Society withers as individuals succumb by deferring moral responsibilities to government. If Washington honored the Constitution, no deficits would exist; debts would be quickly extinguished. More government power means more political corruption. As federal authority overflows its banks, an unseemly political swamp no longer warrants the consent of the governed. Sixteen trillion dollars in debt isn’t the issue, but a symptom of a corrupt polity, divided nation and decadent culture. These factors will finish America long before financial collapse comes.”

These dots appeared this year, 2022…

May 10th – Consumer credit card debt and annual percentage rates are heading to an all-time high. The rise in borrowing, together with auto loans, student debt and mortgages, propelled total household debt to a record $15.84 trillion at the beginning of the year.

August 9th – U.S. worker productivity in the second quarter fell at its steepest pace on an annual basis since 1948 when the Labor Department began tracking it.

August 11th – With inflation running at a 40-year high, 36% of U.S. adults tapped their savings to cover daily living expenses. During the first half of the year, the U.S. personal savings rate fell to 5.1% in June from 8.7% in December 2021. Income isn’t keeping up with inflation. Credit card debt balances rose to a collective $890 billion in the second quarter, a 13% jump from a year.

August 14th – JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told wealthy clients there’s a 40 – 60% chance the US is heading into something worse and harder than a recession. “You better brace yourself. JPMorgan is bracing ourselves and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.”

September 20th – AT&T CEO John Stankey, “We see more of a stagflation environment.” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius slashed his 2023 GDP forecast this week.  Hatzius says he sees a “somewhat worse” outlook for growth and employment next year as the Fed tightens financial conditions to combat inflation.

September 12st – Top economist Mohamed El-Erian has spent the past two years criticizing the Federal Reserve for what he calls a series of missteps that have put the U.S. economy in a no-win scenario. El-Erian says the odds of a ‘soft landing’ for the U.S. economy are now ‘uncomfortably low’ as 3 major economies face a reckoning.

September 22nd – JP Morgan Asset Management’s chief global strategist, with over 20 years of experience, says “The economy’s got one foot in the grave.”

September 22nd – Legendary investor and Bridgewater founder, Ray Dalio, says the stock market has further to fall sounding the alarm on imminent economic trouble. “We are right now very close to a 0% growth year,” he said. “I think it’s going to get worse into 2023 and then 2024, which has implications for elections.”

September 22nd – Nancy Sarnoff, formerly a senior reporter and editor at MoneyWise. Her work has been recognized by the National Association of Real Estate Editors and the Society of American Business Editors and Writers. Sarnoff stated, “The Fed’s rate hikes have yet to dent inflation.”

September 23rd – Wharton School of Business professor Jeremy Siegel stated he is worried that the central bank is making the biggest mistake in its history and may provoke a steep recession. He says the last two years are one of the biggest policy mistakes in the 110-year history of the Fed. He said the Fed is going to be real tough guys until they crush the economy putting the burden on working people, on the employed people.

September 23rd – Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chief, just warned that the US housing market needs a ‘difficult correction’ so that folks can afford homes again.

September 23rd – JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup Inc. raised their prime rate by 75 basis points. Prime rates are now at their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis…put simply, the current economic climate is as dark as it was during one of the worst financial meltdowns in recent history.

September 23rd – Bank of America warned clients “Fed [is] on a warpath…buckle up for a hard landing”.

September 23rd – Larry Summers, Harvard economics professor and former Treasury Secretary, who correctly predicted today’s inflation, “the Fed will have to go much higher than most are expecting to cool runaway inflation.” As a reminder he said in June he said in June: “We need five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation—in other words, we need two years of 7.5% unemployment or five years of 6% unemployment or one year of 10% unemployment.”

September 23rd – Adam Tooze, Columbia University economics professor and the internet’s foremost historian of money and disaster stated “There is an extremely severe risk of a global recession. This will mark those people’s lives for the rest of their lives.”  The world’s economic authorities seem to be becoming increasingly resigned to the fact that inflation cannot be tamed without triggering a recession.

September 23rd – Bret Jensen from Real Money said forget a soft landing, we have now run out of runway.

September 23rd – Judy Shelton an American economic advisor to former President Donald Trump, Hoover Institution fellow, and director of the Sound Money Project at the Atlas Network, stated that the US economic downturn could get very serious.

September 23rd – Gregory Daco is the chief economist at EY-Parthenon and former board director at the National Association of Business Economics, he stated that clearly the Fed is expecting a recession, whether it says the word or not.

September 24th – Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and CEO of Telsa and SpacEx, posted on Twitter, “Siegel is obviously correct.” Musk was referring to Siegel saying, “The last two years [are] one of the biggest policy mistakes in the 110-year history of the Fed, by staying so easy when everything was booming.” Musk went on to say, he [Musk] now expects a recession, he added, with working- and middle-class Americans paying the price.

September 24th – Yahoo Finance called the stock market situation “the worst bear market of all time.”

September 24th – Bank of America says we are looking at an historic global bond-market crash threatening.

September 24th – Washington Post writes, “Fed unsure of economy’s direction as Wall Street meltdown worsens.”

September 25th – David Kostin from Goldman Sachs said that the outlook is unusually murky. The forward paths of inflation, economic growth, interest rates, earnings, and valuations are all in flux more than usual.

My Summary –

As you well know I have been warning and writing about this situation for years; and I have given you specifics about all of this for the last two or three years. What got me started on this particular so-called “Random Dots” was my normal research this past week looking for danger signs…Red Flags. To me there is a clear picture coming into focus…or so I thought. Now I am not so sure.

Oh, don’t get me wrong, I still know that the economy, world and US, will collapse overnight or continue to slide slowly into oblivion. Of that I have no doubt…facts, evidence, and history proves that to be true. But it is the current/recent news stories that causes me to start to wonder about all of it. So I challenged myself…

Are these reports a reflection of what is happening or what the elites want to happen, meaning, a kind of self-fulfilling philosophy…or both.

These 22 items gleaned from the news this past week seem to be pretty conclusive. All of these quotes and reports come from some of the best qualified, most educated, most knowledgeable, and utmost respected experts there are in the world today. If these well-experienced experts are to be believed…the USA and the world are in for a very rough ride. And a case could be made for it being a “final ride” economically speaking. Or is it?

Based on conventional researching and use of logic it would be unwise to see this as anything but foreboding as well as convincing. The opinions come from a wide variety of fields, backgrounds, political affiliation, gender, age, and country of origin. There is also an extensive degree of experience associated with these individuals. That makes a pretty dang convincing argument that they are right…at least collectively speaking. And that is, would be, my assessment…that they are right…and that would be conventional thinking. But are we in conventional times?

Let’s expand our view past the obvious state of the USA’s and world’s economic situation.

  1. We have a near-world war taking place with Russia on one side and NATO on the other. Both Russia and the USA have openly spoken about the use of nuclear weapons. Each side has repeatedly issued warnings and threats to the other regarding nuclear weapons…with the Ukraine insanely urging on the USA to use nukes “preemptively.”
  1. We have a severe energy crisis taking place and worsening in Europe with winter approaching. We have a significant energy shortage in parts of the US with winter approaching. In addition to the worsening energy issues, we have both Europe and the US moving away from stable and reliable energy sources, fossil fuels and nuclear, to unreliable and unstable green energy. And the green energy sources and associated grid infrastructure are not anywhere near ready for the transition in terms of production and transmission.
  1. Then add to that the existing food shortages in multiple countries located on multiple continents. We have both a grain shortage and fertilizer shortage worsening. And add to that we have multiple countries eliminating or restricting agriculture exports. And then there is both the US and Europe actually reducing food production capabilities by law, Europe more so than the US.
  1. Now consider how many countries in the world that are currently experiencing moderate to Grid-Down anarchy lawlessness riotsignificant internal conflict, some to the point of approaching civil war. The US, the so-called bastion of democracy and leader of the free world, is on the verge of transitioning to a hard authoritarian regime and/or experiencing the outbreak of civil war.

So the world does not represent anything even closely resembling “conventional” at this point…and the situation(s) are all deteriorating. So do we apply conventional thinking to the economic situational reports quoted above? I say “no.” Logically we have to look at it in other terms, for me I relate the situation in historic perspective. And that picture ain’t good…no, not at all!

Historically speaking when these varied areas of problems/situations line-up we end up with one outcome…war. But I am not 100% sure that a purely historic view is correct either. I think our situation is now so unique, at least to me, that we are looking at a hybrid of a world situation. And that makes it even worse…and less predictable.

And then the world’s situation deteriorates even more, as if that is possible, thinking about two leaders in the world…the two leaders that are currently at war with each other…leaders of countries that have the 1st and 2nd largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons in the world. One leader is backed into a corner in a war they are increasingly losing on the battlefield. The other leader is suffering from dementia and missing about 50% of his cognitive abilities. Both leaders are suffering from severe internal strife within their national borders. One is openly killing opposition leaders, the other is openly persecuting/prosecuting his political adversaries and critics. Neither country’s political situation could be considered anything remotely approaching stable.

So now what? What does all of this mean? Well, for me…I think we are in a world of hurt…in the middle of a true worldwide sh*t storm. And it only degrades with each passing day.

There is also a wildcard that I can only “feel” but can neither identify nor describe at this point. And I believe it to be a coming Black Swan event. That event will widely affect large numbers of people on a very large scale, be virtually unexpected in nature, and I think it will be in the USA for sure but I am not ruling out other western or third-world countries either, and it will spread.

This is not meant to instill fear or panic…that is not my style as you well know. What I am doing is being open and honest about what I am seeing on many fronts around the world, but specifically in the US. I am doing this to give you my opinion on what may happen based on what I see happening. Most of all I am writing this to give you a sense of urgency on preparing yourself, your family, your congregation, and your community.

Now, do with all of this as your wish…that is your God-given right and responsibility (free will or agency). Consider it, ponder it, discuss it, and most of all…pray about it. But not just what I shared in regards to what I see happening and what may happen…but specifically what you should be doing now and for the coming future as you see it.

But here is a nagging question of mine that will simply not go away…Why does the Federal Reserve, a private company, have so much power over both the federal government and the citizens of the United States?

According to the stated mission, “The Federal Reserve System, often referred to as the Federal Reserve or simply “the Fed,” is the central bank of the United States. It was created by the Congress to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system.”

Here is a significant fact…The Fed was made law, the same year federal income tax was Constitution amendment was ratified, and the same year that appointment of Senators was taken away from the States and given to popular vote. And all under President Woodrow Wilson…who was a Progressive, a Democrat, a radical racist/segregationist, a globalist, and a dedicated/committed authoritarian.

Oh, and FYI…the Democrats controlled Congress in 1913. And if you might wonder why the 17th Amendment was passed stripping States of power by removing their right to appoint US Senators…well, you only need to know that Republicans were the Senate majority for virtually the entire time from 1861 – 1913. Interestingly, an authoritarian President in coordination with Progressive Democrats remove the last real check & balance of the states on the federal government the same year that unlimited power is given to a private company to control the US economy. And also the same year unlimited power is given to the federal government to take money from its citizens to fund a now unchecked all-powerful, centralized federal government.

So back to the Fed…in the first 124 years prior to the Fed, the US had experienced a fair number of boom/bust cycles. However, they tended to be quick and have little even mid-term affect. Since the establishment of Fed control 109 years ago…in addition to a notable number of lesser boom/bust cycles in the economy, we’ve had a major depression, two major recessions, multiple stock market “corrections”, and we are staring an economic Armageddon in the face. And after each economic “problem” wealth moved from the middle and lower income bracket folks to the wealthier families and larger corporations…hummmm. So tell me again…why did the US Congress give power to a private company to control the entire US economy and virtually the entire financial operation of the US federal government?

The only way to combat a national problem like this is on a local level.  Act locally, barter, trade services, support local farmers by buying their products directly, support local merchants, support local credit unions, be active in local government, and work to elect Constitutional Sheriffs. Then ensure that your own finances are in order being as independent of the system as possible. Reduce your retail purchasing and frequent garage sales, flea markets, yard sales, craft fairs, estate sales, thrift stores, and moving sales. Reduce your spending, increase your savings. Then find other folks that think and believe as you do…find them in your neighborhoods, your congregations and churches, and in your communities…and with them enact local, community-based, solutions.

Some of you may question this last encouragement and that is okay…VOTE !   I know there are folks who think voting is a waste of time, and it may be. But, our Founding Fathers set up a Constitutional Republic based on the citizens’ power to vote at all levels of government. They did so for a reason…and I support that reason…I vote…please do the same.

We the People can win this battle against evil but it won’t be easy, it won’t be for the faint hearted or the uncommitted. It will require dedication to righteous principles of government found in the Constitution…not the literally evil monstrosity that exists today in Washington DC. It will needs be that you work hard to make that Constitutional restoration, be devoted to doing what is right, and, if called upon, sacrifice.

You are needed.

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4 thoughts on “Economic Situation…

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