This is Part #2 in this series. If you haven’t read Part #1, you probably should.

< Lesson Learned: 10/7 Attack on Israel (Part #1) >

As you well know by now I am a big believer is After Action Reviews/Reports (AARs), and a critical part of that process is coming up with a list of “Lessons Learned” (LLs). Learning from mistakes helps avoid making those same mistakes again and again.

I was not in Israel at the time of 10/7 attacks. I do not have access to any classified information on what happened before, during, or after the attacks. I have watched hours and hours of reports, interviews, first-hand accounts, military videos, first responder videos, and read many first-hand articles/accounts of that day by survivors and responders. While I am not representing these LLs to be all-inclusive or without flaw, I feel confident that these observations and conclusions are well-grounded and applicable to learn from.

Further, these posts are not intended to denigrate Israel, the IDF, Israeli citizens, victims of 10/7 or in anyway take from the horrific attack on their country and citizens by Islamic terrorists, Hamas. There are many heroic stories of acts of bravery by countless men and women in Israel that day. My goal is to provide information and my opinions on how to prevent such things from happening to you and to your family.

There will be multiple posts in this series to help cover what I feel at important and applicable topics.

#5 – Normalcy Bias

Normalcy Bias is the refusal of your brain to accept that something has happened, will happen, or to what extent something has happened.

Report after report from 10/7 survivors made several points; 1) they thought it was just another rocket attack or a warning of a possible rocket attack, 2) even after people heard gunshots they didn’t connect it to a terrorist attack, 3) at the music festival, site of hundreds of young people slaughtered, even once they realized they were being attacked by terrorists, many didn’t react (try to escape) for 10 – 15 minutes. There are even videos of Israelis in cars driving past Hamas terrorists killing other Israelis and then dragging them out of their cars…and then the passer-byes getting killed themselves.

Ironically, these festival folks lived within hearing, a short walk, or in close proximity to Gaza…a heaven for Islamic terrorists (Hamas) who have repeatedly and publicly stated they want to kill all Jews and wipe Israel off the map. Israel is a country who has been regularly attacked by Muslims trying to eliminate the entire Hebrew religion and country of Israel. Israel is considered to be one of the toughest countries in the world in terms of being able to defend itself and its military prowess. Yet, almost all civilians and most police suffered from Normalcy Bias that day.

I have no explanation for this phenomena. I would have thought that Israelis, of all people, would be attuned to the signs of a terror attack and the correct steps to take to defeat the terrorists or at least protect themselves and their families.

The only thing I can suggest is to allow strange and out of the ordinary situations to startle you into action regardless of how foreign the event seems. I am asking for you to allow your mind to accept things as they truly are and not how you see them through all your psycho-social filters. A good example of what you can do to help prevent Normalcy Bias is “War Game It” with a buddy or two, or your wife, and say “What if this actually did happen, regardless if we think it will happen, what would we do?”

If you fail to recognize reality for what it is, reality will give you a wake-up call…and that could be a fatal mistake.

# 6 – Cognitive Dissonance

Cognitive Dissonance occurs when we are presented with two or more sensory inputs that are contradictory to our expectations we can become very uncomfortable, very unbalanced mentally. Then we will consciously or unconsciously shun anything that is causing the unbalance. Meaning anything that is out of the ordinary will be blocked out mentally or simply ignored.

Cognitive Dissonance is similar to Normalcy Bias…but Cognitive Dissonance is the actual mental process that is taking place when presented with extreme out of the ordinary sensory inputs. Example: We hear rocket attack warning sirens, which we are used to, but ignore the sounds of gunfire. Example: We see people wearing masks with automatic weapons killing people in cars, but drive by them anyways because our brain can’t accept that unbalance of seeing terrorists killing our neighbors on the streets of our community.

The only explanation I have for this phenomena is lack of training. The citizens who lived in close proximity to some of the most violent Islamic terrorists in the world simply didn’t train for the possibility that they could be attacked…even though they lived within sight of those terrorist strongholds.

This could only be looked at as a complete breakdown of government emergency preparedness. Well, that and citizens not taking responsibility for their own emergency preparedness and safety. And this shows in two major ways; 1) extreme gun control by government, 2) lack of people applying for gun licenses.

# 7 – Situational Awareness

Situational Awareness (SA) is accurately observing and understanding the things taking place around you, then using that information to make good decisions and then take appropriate action.

Touchy subject alert – Somehow all of the Israeli intelligence services, the entire military, and all police resources missed that Hamas we preparing an extremely violent terrorist attack on 10/7…even though Hamas had been planning and preparing it for over a year. So thousands of those folks all suffered from poor, or non-existent, SA. But that was only the beginning.

If you look at the barriers to SA you see almost a textbook case study of just how bad it can get. Here are just some of them:

Physical Barriers:

• • • Communication – Hardware
    • Communication – Quality & Quantity
    • Staffing (under staffed, level of training)

Emotional/Mental Barriers:

• • • Normalcy Bias (includes Complacency, Perceptions)
    • Competency Bias
    • Overwhelmed (including: stress, distraction, conflict & Paralysis by Analysis)
    • Culture
    • Tunnel Vision

Looking at the situation objectively:

1. 1. 1. Communications broke-down fairly quickly due to radio/cell towers being disabled by attackers and poor, lack of adequate information being passed to next-level authorities by forces on the ground.
      2. Police staffing was extremely inadequate, and virtually no IDF presence even though the area was located in very close proximity to known terrorist strongholds.
      3. Normalcy and Competency Bias was rampant with civilians, police personnel, and military forces.
      4. Due to the sheer size, scope, and ferocity of the attacks civilians, police personnel, and military forces were overwhelmed. It took 8 – 12 hours for a solid IDF response to the attacks, and even days to clear all of the areas.

Basically…objectively speaking, SA was essentially non-existent that day. And that fact killed hundreds in an of itself.

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Series Articles –

• Lesson Learned: 10/7 Attack on Israel (Part #1)
• Lesson Learned: 10/7 Attack on Israel (Part #2)
• Lesson Learned: 10/7 Attack on Israel (Part #3)

Related Articles –

• TRAP – The #1 obstacle to people getting prepared for emergencies and disasters is Normalcy Bias.
• TRAP – Normalcy Bias can kill you quicker than Competency Bias.
• TRAP – The #1 obstacle to people getting prepared for emergencies and disasters is Normalcy Bias.
• Immediate Action Warning!
• Then they came for… (part #2 of 3)
• Initiative ’17 – Part #5: Flipping the Switch
• Situational Awareness: Introduction
• Situational Awareness: Part 3 – Barriers to SA

 

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