If you haven’t read the post on September 1, 2019 that explains this post…well, go read that post first (91/2019) and then this post will make more sense.

Is the threat of violence really the #1 threat a person faces in emergencies, disasters, or grid-down?

There is not a simple answer…but, one thing for sure…it has the highest fatality factor, with the highest severity rating, and an relatively unknown probability factor.  So, yes, violence is the #1 threat/risk against you and your family overall because if you fail at mitigating the threat of violence…the outcome can be terminal and incurable.

What can you reasonably do to mitigate the threat or risk of violence against you and your family? Well, remember that there are two ways to mitigate risk; 1) reduce or eliminate the probability that it will occur, 2) if it does occur, you reduce the severity of the impact. That being said there are steps you can take to work on both probability and severity in relation to the threat/risk of violence.

The most simple aspect of this is…to protect yourself and your family you want to keep the bad guys as far away from you as possible. Preferably they will never even know you are there. However, we will exclude the “invisibility” (a.k.a. grey man) concept from this discussion and concentrate on how to actually protect your family.

In protecting your family there are two primary aspects; 1) intangible, 2) tangible. Intangible simply means what you can do that doesn’t cost you anything and you don’t hold it in your hand. Tangible obviously means the opposite; it usually costs you some amount of money and you can hold it in your hand.

#1 Intangible –

Situational Awareness is the first and foremost intangible! You must be aware of what is going on around you. And the closer an event is…the more important it is that you know what is happening.

In my series of articles concerning Situational Awareness (SA). I go into great detail on what it is, how to improve it, and how to avoid SA problems. Well worth taking the time to read. < click here to read Situational Awareness articles > 

SA in the strictest of terms by the purists is a “state of knowledge.” In other words we need to have realistic knowledge of the things taking place around us in our environment. Further, SA is being able to correctly assess that knowledge. To bring SA into reality we need to define Situational Awareness as the acquisition of, the processing of, a state of, and taking action on knowledge. That knowledge comes from the environment around you.

Here is the short version of SA:

First Step, you must understand the environment that you will be operating it; establish a baseline or what is normal and therefor expected in that environment. Hence, anything that occurs that is outside of that baseline is not normal and to be noted. You acquire that knowledge by observing what is happening around you – Situational Awareness.

Second Step, you then must identify the key cues that will indicate that something is sufficiently abnormal (i.e. different) that it would represent an increased threat or risk.  And you must monitor those environment elements identified for any change or deviation from the baseline, recognize when they occur and their relative importance – Situational Understanding.

Third Step, you project the outcome of the events that are taking place that are deemed a threat or risk to determine the effect (fatality factor) it will have on your situation.  You then decide on an option to mitigate that threat or risk – Situational Judgement.

Fourth Step, take timely and decisive corrective action if required. Yes, I believe that SA without “action” is a waste of time and energy. But that also makes me outside of the mainstream advocating that SA includes an element of action – Situational Influence.

That is the intangible version of mitigating the threat of violence…you identify that it is there and avoid it.

Put SA into practice…1 – You are in a store and there is a man with an AR-style rifle slung over his shoulder. Is that normal? No. your SA should come alive.

2 – Magazine inserted in rifle. That indicates he is loaded and ready for action. Is that normal? No. You SA should be screaming at you.

3 – He appears to have an Obama “Hope” t-shirt on. Is that normal? An Obama t-shirt would be more closely associated with anti-gun, anti-Constitution Democrat radicals vs. pro-gun folks. Again, SA should be heightened even more.

4 – Body posture is relaxed and appears to be buying cookies. Both of those indicates the opposite of a person about to go off his nut. Both are good indicators that the threat is lessened.

5 – Muzzle slung down. That is a universal indicator of non-aggression by militaries. Another indicator that the threat isn’t as high as it could be.

Now the real question – What do you do next with you and your family in this situation?

Tangibles of Personal & Family Defense –

Let’s move on to the area where you simply aren’t/weren’t able to avoid all threat of violence…now what?

To keep the threat/risk of violence as far from you as possible the best way to do so is with a high-quality, long-range rifle, top quality optics, along with a great set of shooting skills. You become the “American Sniper.”

But, what happens if the bad guys get right in your face? Then you better have a way to deal with that imminent threat as well. Since an “in-your-face” scenario might actually be so close you can’t bring a weapon into action, you should have the ability to defend yourself with nothing more than your bare hands…to some reasonable degree. This would be the inner-most ring of your defensive layers protecting you and your family from the threat or risk of violence.

Why be able to defend yourself, your family, and your home? I call this the Castle Principle. Simply put, you are responsible for the safety of your home (i.e. your “Castle”) and all those that dwell therein. If you are not going to defend the people taking refuge in your home, who will?

Seriously, if you are not prepared to defend your family and friends that have taken refuge in your home, what good are you? No, I don’t mean you have to be a combination of a SEAL and a Ninja. Yes, I do mean you have to have the means and be willing to defend your family.

If someone else is going to defend them instead of you, is it really your castle? The whole concept of the Castle Principle is you being responsible for defending your home and the people in it. If not you, who?

OK, back to defending against the bad guy from a distance or in-your-face…

Why not an AR-15 vs. your bare hands against a bad guy that has come close-in and is in your face? Because at close range it would probably be impossible to get an AR up and pointed at a guy. He could be so close that it is physically impossible to raise the rifle. When I took a very serious defensive class I was able to neutralize a hardcore operator’s carbine from being brought into action. Yup, me!

But, his greater skill-set allowed him to forget the carbine entirely and deal with me using only his bare hands…and a training knife. Yeah, I didn’t come out so good on that one. My point is, a barehanded person can neutralize that weapon, even an experienced soldier carrying one.

However, if your attacker were just a few inches further away, you may be able to pull a knife. As he did in the example above. If there is maybe a foot or two separation between the two of you, you may have space and time to draw a pistol for defense. Add another foot or two of separation and now maybe there is enough space and time to employ an AR or shotgun.

If the guy is 100 yards away then an AR is going to be far more accurate than a shotgun. You get to 400 – 600 yards then the long-range rifle is a better choice than an AR. Although, with practice an AR-15 can be shot very effectively at ranges of 400- 600 yards.

Now look at all those concentric circles with you and your family in the center. The first circle is your bare hands capabilities. The next circle is a knife as a defensive weapon. The circle after that is a pistol. Then a shotgun, then an AR, and finally a long-range rifle.

With each circle you keep the bad guys further from your castle, and further from those you love and whom you are trying to protect. You have created defense in layers.

You effectively have an answer for each separate and consecutive threat. In other words, you have multiple layers of defense to protect your family. Each layer having a specific purpose, its own mission.

Bottom line, your goal is to keep all risks and threats as far away from you and your family as possible.  However, as the threat gets closer you have defensive measures in-place to deal with it. And hopefully you have developed the mindset that you will employ those defenses when needed, without hesitation, and the best you possibly can.

In priority order I propose the following –

1. A really good fighting or defensive knife (i.e. boot knife). For this you might want to consider –
   • Gerber StrongArm
   • Gerber Guardian 05803 Knife (boot knife)
   • For an ultimate fighting knife – CRKT Hissatsu
2. A really good pistol. For more information on this you may want to read < Choosing the Right Gun : Pistols >
3. A really good shotgun. For more information on this you may want to read < Choosing the Right Gun : Shotguns >
4. A really good carbine. For more information on this you may want to read < Choosing the Right Gun : Carbine/Rifle >

If you already own weapons and you want additional thoughts on what to do:

1. Go to the range and practice sometime during the month of September. Don’t just punch holes in paper, shoot at 6” paper plates from different positions (sitting, squatting, laying down, from behind a barrier). Then shoot at those same size paper plates while moving laterally, while moving forward, while moving backward, in tandem with another shooter. Don’t just stand there and shoot. Not only is it boring, it doesn’t improve your skills. You need to become a “shooter” and that means working on actual shooting skills. Practice with 3 rounds in your first mag, force yourself to switch mags while moving. Do all kinds of things that you think you might actually have to do in a gunfight. Use a 9-hole, that is an amazing training tool. And finally, remember to replace the ammo that you used at the range.
2. Buy more ammo! If you know how much ammo you have, then you don’t have enough. Buy the decent stuff. You don’t have to buy the best ammo out there, but buy dependable ammo. Remember, in a gunfight you don’t want the cheapest crap ammo running through your gun. Genuine military surplus is a good way to go.
3. Buy a good tactical holster. I like Blackhawk Drop Leg Platform with a SERPA holster.
4. Buy more magazines. For pistols I think the minimum number of magazines you should own is 3. One for the gun, two for the mag pouch. Having another spare or two is a great idea. I like Mec-Gar magazines. They are high-quality, less expensive than original manufacture magazines, just as good as original manufacture, and they have a slightly higher round capacity. FYI…many gun manufactures have Mec-Gar make their mags for them.
5. If you have a good fighting or boot knife, make sure you have a good sharpener for it…and your knife has a great edge on it.
6. Find a shooting class, preferably a tactical class, in your area and take the training. Take your wife with you, take your oldest son with you, you best friend, your neighbor, go as a group, have fun, learn a lot…and when you are done with the class know you are better trained than ever before. And better trained than the average person.
7. Upgrade your optics. Or, buy another spare battery or two for your optics.

Home Defense –

Defense in layers applies just as much to defending your property, another aspect of my Castle Principle. You start by having strong steel doors with deadbolt locks. But you also have reinforcing bars to prevent your doors from being kicked in. But if the bad guys get inside the house you still have a bedroom door that is solid core and can withstand some considerable amount of force being applied to it. Then you have a bathroom with a strong, solid door as well. You look at this last vestige of safety as your Alamo.

Here are some of the things you can do:

1. You have a stone wall or fence around your property.
2. Between the wall/fence and your house you have one or more dogs.
3. You have motion activated lights around your house.
4. You have sensors on your doors and windows to alert you that someone is opening them.
5. You have motion sensor inside your home that you can turn on at night.
6. You have a sensor at the end of your driveway to notify you of someone approaching.
7. You have a sensor on the framer around your roll-up garage door to alert you if someone comes in your garage.
8. Install a security door on your exterior doors.

And the list goes on and on. The point being, you implement those measures that protect your house as if your house were a castle stronghold.

Summary –

So now you have plenty of solid principles, lots of ideas and thoughts on what you can do to protect yourself and your family from the threat of violence. One of the things, one of the best things, you can do is work together with one or more other families. Come up with plans to work together to protect the combined group of folks. A very old saying that truly applies in this situation is “There is safety in numbers.” Don’t discount that concept!

What I want you to do now is based on the promptings you got while reading this article…take action. Take action in the next couple of days. Even if it is following through with a no cost idea…go to the range. Do something, do what the prompting was when you felt it.

Personal note to you –

There are lots of changes concurring in the world right now. Recent decisions by the Progressive/Liberal Supreme Court and the Whitehouse have reinforced anti-gun laws. I would encourage you to think about purchasing a gun, specifically an AR-style carbine/rifle. Remember the gun ban put in place during the first Clinton presidency that was widely supported by Republicans? That gun ban was aimed specifically at AR’s & AK’s . There may come a time soon where you might need one and can’t buy one. Same could be said for high-capacity magazines and ammunition as well. Please consider this.

2009 - 2019 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved
No reproduction or other use of this content 
without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com
See Content Use Policy for more information.

If you haven’t read the post on September 1, 2019 that explains this post…well, go read that post first (91/2019) and then this post will make more sense.

So what is the goal/purpose of this series of articles?

To use seven separate days in the month of September to dedicate to, to focus on, each of the seven areas of emergency, disaster, and grid-down threats…and solutions.

I am not so naive to think that you would be fully prepared after the seven days, but I am hoping you will take the time to gather ideas and thoughts to be better prepared when the seven days is over.

You may already consider yourself prepared…great! However, what I would like you to do is to read each of the seven articles and listen to that little voice inside of you…that still small voice…and follow those promptings. Listen to what you might hear in regards to doing that one more thing that you might not have thought about prior to reading the articles.

And, I also want to throw another idea at you…I want you to think of this as an opportunity to share emergency preparedness with others. None of these articles will be fanatical, extreme, or filled with political ideology. They will be down-to-earth, common sense, practical ideas on being prepared for emergencies, disasters, or a grid-down event. That might just be the opening you have been looking for to reach out to others.  I encourage you to share these articles with folks that you know who aren’t prepared, not prepared enough, or simply have shown an interest in prepping but you needed a place to send them to for information.

What I am not talking about –

Let me take an opposite tact first…I am talking about “events” not “situations.” What I am not talking about are survival situations. An event is where a wide-spread electrical outage occurs and you and your family must then respond to that event. A survival situation is where you must react to being lost in the forest and it will drop to 10° tonight.

That being said, the “event” preparation steps we take will be able to handle most survival “situations.” So in these articles I will concentrate on events where broader principles apply. It is a matter of responding vs. reacting.

Categories of Catastrophe –

My 30+ years of experience as a professional emergency responder tells me there are three basic categories of events to prepare for:

• Emergencies
  • Injury
  • Flu
  • Vehicle Accident
  • Heart Attack
  • Job Loss/Retirement
  • Utility Outage
  • Death
  • House Fire

• Disasters
  • Earthquake
  • Wildfire
  • Tornado
  • Hurricane
  • HazMat
  • Flood
  • Epidemic

• Grid-Down
  • Transportation Stopage
  • Pandemic
  • Financial or Stock Market Collapse
  • War or EMP Attack
  • Martial Law

Yes, you can add more to the list for each category. You may even want to move a few around from how I have them arranged. That’s OK, at least you are thinking about catastrophe categorization.

As you look at each category of catastrophe you can see how they grow larger in terms of scope of impact. “Emergencies” for the most part affect only a single person or a family, potentially a neighborhood, etc. However, emergencies are fairly limited in scope. As you move to “disaster,” and especially at the “grid-down” level, those events are now affecting people over increasingly larger areas. And in the case of “grid-down” it could/would be affecting potentially an entire country, hemisphere, or the whole world.

Preparation Priorities –

There are a wide variety, almost an endless list, of emergencies, disasters and grid-down possibilities. But amazingly, they all fundamentally contain virtually the same threats in the same priority order:

1. Violence
2. Sickness/Injury
3. Lack of, or Poor, Communication
4. Lack of, or Poor, Organization
5. Dehydration
6. Exposure (Hyper/Hypothermia – clothing & shelter)
7. Starvation

Fatality Factor –

Neglecting to properly mitigate these threats/risks in the proper order will result in failure at some point and to some degree. And failure will not be pleasant! Failure can potentially mean fatal or near-fatal results.

Why do I list threats/risks in the particular order? The order is based on the “fatality factor.” Meaning…what can kill or seriously injure you, or your family, the quickest.

Example #1 – The inability of you to defend yourself or your family from an armed man can result in you or a family member being shot. That gunshot wound can be immediately fatal. Starvation can take about 10 – 20 days to kill the normal person. So being shot has a far higher fatality factor than starving to death.

Example #2 – If you are out scouting for water and you fall and gash your leg open resulting in bleeding, then you have a problem of potentially bleeding out. That can occur in as little as three minutes if you have cut an artery and can’t get the bleeding stopped. However, if it is 30º outside and you aren’t properly dressed for it you could potentially die from exposure as well. But, the process of dying from exposure could take hours, maybe days, to kill you. So bleeding to death carries a higher fatality factor than exposure.

The fatality factor is the key to prioritizing threats/risks in emergency preparedness.The things that kill you the quickest have a higher mitigation priority requirement than those that can take longer to be fatal.

Risk Mitigation –

There are two aspects of risk that we should not only be concerned about, but have the ability to influence; 1) probability, 2) severity.

“Probability” simply means, how likely the event is to occur. And in the prepper world I extend that to, and in what time-frame relative to now. So I have defined probability as “How likely is the event to occur and how soon.”

The other aspect of risk is “severity.” Severity is defined as “If the event does occur, how bad can the potential outcome be.”

I’ve combined it to read, “How likely will the event occur from now and how severe could the outcome be?”

Yes, there is a whole lot of “judgement” that can take place (and should take place) when working with those definitions as applied to your immediate emergency situation. But not to worry, just make the best judgement you can. Throughout this series of articles I will give you clues, hints, and advice on what to look for and how to make those judgements wisely.

Now that we have identified the two main players in “event risk” and how to judge the probability and severity, we can discuss how to increase our chances of surviving an event with its associated risks. Actually it’s very simple; 1) reduce the probability that the event will occur, 2) reduce the severity of impact to our family should the event occur. That process is called “risk mitigation.”

You mitigate the identified threats/risks by having the ability to:

• Defend yourself, family and community.
• Provide medical care.
• Use non-standard communication systems.
• Use a high-quality organizational system, ICS (Incident Command System).
• Produce, filter and purify water.
• Provide basic shelter and have quality clothing available.
• Provide initial food supply and the ability to grow more.

The Plan –

This article introduced you to a number of vital preparedness principles:

• Categories of Catastrophe
• Preparation Priorities
• Fatality Factor
• Risk Mitigation

Each of the next seven articles will provide information on each of the seven “priorities.” The articles will appear in the next seven days and then a “summary” article on the 8th day. I look forward to hearing your feedback, suggestions, ideas, and even your complaints.

note: This series of articles originally appeared in September 2016. I have edited and updated the material in 2019 to be more useful and current. Please ask questions about any of the material as you wish. Also, feel free to post comments on each page as you deem appropriate.

Articles in this Series –

• Days of September – 8/29/2019
• Days of September – 9/1/2019 Opening
• Days of September – 9/2/2019 What I might do Part #1
• Days of September – 9/3/2019 What I might do Part #2
• Days of September – 9/4/2019 Introduction
• Days of September – 9/5/2019 Day #1 Threat of Violence
• Days of September – 9/6/2019 Day #2 Threat of Injury or Sickness
• Days of September – 9/7/2019 Day #3 Communications
• Days of September – 9/8/2019 Day #4 Organization
• Days of September – 9/9/2019 Day #5 Dehydration
• Days of September – 9/10/2019 Day #6 Exposure
• Days of September – 9/12/2019 Day #7 Starvation
• Days of September – 9/13/2019 Summary
• What would you do? – 9/14/2019 
• What would you do? – 9/15/2019
• What would you do? – 9/16/2019
• What would you do? – 9/17/2019
• What would you do? – 9/19/2019

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No reproduction or other use of this content 
without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com
See Content Use Policy for more information.

I am going to try something new…please bear with me.

I want to link a number of updated articles together in a “lesson” format. Yeah…school time!

I hope you hang in there with me, I think everyone can get something out of this. It is important enough to me that I am dedicating the entire first part of September to this. Please take the time to work with me. I bet we can all learn something.

Here’s my plan…

1. I share this post with you outlining what I am going to do.
2. I will post two days of “This Is What I Would Do” articles.
3. Then I will post an introductory article on dealing with risks and threats.
4. Then there will be seven days of articles touching on each of the “7 Common Risks/Threats.”
5. Then there will be a summary post covering the posts mentioned in #4.
6. And lastly I will post 5 articles, one each day, asking the question “What would you do?”
7. Finally, I will post a global summary of all of the previous September articles (minus the 9/11) article.

How it plays out…

I share this post with you outlining what I am going to do.

Pretty dang self-explanatory…you are reading this post.

I will post two days of “This Is What I Would Do” articles.

These two articles originally appeared a few years ago on my website. I have resurrected them, edited them for grammar and spelling, then added some additional material while discarding out of date stuff. These two articles are to get you thinking. I develop a scenario and then I go into some details of what I might do and why. I hit on some principles and ideas. It is to get you into a more formal mind set of dealing with emergencies, disasters, and even grid-down events.

Then I will post an introductory article on dealing with risks and threats.

This article will cover risk/threat categorizing, priority setting, fatality factor, and risk mitigation. It will touch on each of those subjects in detail and with formal training to implement what you’ve learned. It won’t be long or boring…just hardcore fast moving information to get you going.

Then there will be seven days of articles touching on each of the “7 Common Risks/Threats.”

I will cover each of the risks/threats that are common to all emergencies, disasters, and grid-down. They are; Violence, Injury or Sickness, Communications, Organization, Dehydration, Exposure, and Starvation. I will present information that will get you started in understanding the risks/threats and how to deal with them.

Then there will be a summary post covering the posts mentioned in #4.

In that post I will wrap up the previous 7 post information and give you an assignment.

And lastly I will post 5 articles, one each day, asking the question “What would you do?”

This 5-post series, one each day, is to present you with different scenarios and ask you a simple question, “What would you do?” You can turn it into a major planning session…or simply a brain-storming session with yourself and/or your family. It is to motivate you to think about what might happen and get your mind in the habit of thinking through what is happening and coming up with a plan.

Finally, I will post a global summary of all of the previous September articles (minus the 9/11) article.

This will be my time to bloviate on the previous 18 days worth of posts, your comments/replies, and anything else that might be applicable.

Summary –

I truly hope you don’t find this idea out of line, or childish, or unneeded. I think the timing is right for it. I hope you will participate with me through this exercise.

2009 - 2019 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved
No reproduction or other use of this content 
without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com
See Content Use Policy for more information.

I need you to watch for an article that will appear on September 1st. It will be the first of a series of articles that I really am excited about and think you will enjoy….or at least learn something from. Not that I am a great teacher or an oracle of truth…but the articles might get you thinking…and then learning.

Please keep your eyes open for it!