Prepper Myth #3: I only need X number of days of food.

This is one of a series of posts on some commonly held prepping beliefs, and reasons why they may be wrong and possibly dangerous to you and your loved ones.

Their Myth Reasoning (not me talking/writing) – I was motivated to write this article by a thread I saw on a message board where people were comparing the contents of their bugout bags. Seven people in a row described having less than two days’ worth of food. What is the point of having survival gear if you are so debilitated by hunger that you can’t use it? Some people who’ve never been without food for a couple of days will point out correctly that the human body can go for weeks without food, but I suggest that you fast (go without eating) for just four days and then try to engage in any kind of real physical activity – it’s a nonstarter. The body can keep itself alive without food, but that’s about all it can do. In a real survival situation, you won’t be sitting behind a desk typing e-mails; you’ll be running, walking, digging, and fighting, plus any other actions that a machine used to do for you. All that requires energy – lots of it. You’re going to have to supply that energy – all of it. Now multiply that obligation by the number of people in your group, and the number of days you’ll have to go without a resupply of food. The result is a mountain of food, much more than what casual preppers sock away. The problem isn’t just food – what are you going to drink? How are you going to sanitize that water supply? How are you going to cook all that food? However much food you store, you’ll need an equivalent source of energy to cook it, since most long-term survival foods, like grains and legumes, all need to be cooked. The myth I’m describing is perhaps more a tendency than a myth – preppers focus on weapons and defensive equipment (some out of fear and some because those are the things they like using anyway), when they should be focusing on food. You can buy an awful lot of wheat for the price of a single gun.

My Opinion –  I agree with this…to a point. But, you will never know exactly how much food and water you will need. There is no magic number of days/months/years worth of food storage. Your food storage may be just for your family of four but you may end up with 5 other families as well. So I keep adding to my pile every month; a little here and a little there.

And now here is the first real point…ability to produce food (i.e. garden). To hedge my food storage bet I have started only buying heirloom plants for the garden and then store the seeds. And just to make sure I would get off to the right start I bought three good starter kits of seeds for a garden. Here is the most important aspect about having PLENTY of food storage – you can always use it and it will never go to waste. You or someone else in your family or community will enjoy it; even if it is in retirement reducing your food bill.

And here is my second real point…their comment about “weapons and defensive equipment” is WAY off!! Their statement “some out of fear and some because those are the things they like using anyway” shows their true feelings against guns and tactical gear. This is a typical view of many people. Why? because they don’t really understand the actual risks/threats that will exist during emergencies, disasters, and grid-down. They don’t understand risk mitigation and they have this powder-puff view of the world once the SHTF. If you are not properly armed and trained, the first guy that is will end up with all that great food and water storage of yours.

 

 

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Prepper Myth #2: Stock up on the ammo you’ll need to defend yourself with.

This is one of a series of posts on some commonly held prepping beliefs, and reasons why they may be wrong and possibly dangerous to you and your loved ones.

Their Myth Reasoning (not me talking/writing) – Once again, the math just doesn’t add up on storing a lot of ammo. There is only one scenario where you think you’ll be using a lot of ammunition, and it is the horde scenario. But, there again, you won’t need a lot of ammo – the horde scenario will be over in a few minutes to a few hours, with you the loser, and your stored ammo with go to the winners. Don’t get me wrong – you need guns and ammo, but the idea that you’re going to expend thousands of rounds is just a reflection of people’s erroneous beliefs about what kind of shooting situations they’ll be in. If you’re determined to buy ammo, don’t buy them for just your guns, – buy them for everybody else’s. You’ll actually own a valuable commodity. Better yet, use the money to buy food, which leads us to myth #3.

My Opinion – I disagree with this one. There are a number of scenarios that would require LOTS of ammo. Most firefights don’t last long in non-conventional warfare. But during that brief encounter you could easily blow through 200 – 300 rounds per person. To think a couple hundred rounds is sufficient for grid-down is not such a good idea. Plenty of rifle or carbine ammo (1000 – 2000 rounds per weapon minimum), a good supply of pistol ammo (500 – 1000 rounds) and a respectable supply of shotgun ammunition (250+ rounds of 00 Buck & 100+ rounds of slugs minimum) is extremely important. This is a good starting point. But I also worry about everyday ammo shortages, price increases, eventual ban or limitations, etc. To me ammo, and plenty of it, is just a good investment that makes me feel more secure. And no, I only will store the ammo I need for my weapons. Just so happens that my weapons are VERY common in caliber. You think there is a good reason for that? Any oddball caliber weapons are a recipe for disaster. Get rid of them now while there is still a market for them. If you win the firefight…to the victor go the spoils; which means you get their guns and their ammo. You don’t need to buy and store ammo for everybody else’s guns…worry about your own ammo needs. And lots of ammo equals lots of security.

 

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Prepper Myth #1: You can defend yourself against the horde.

This is one of a series of posts on some commonly held prepping beliefs, and reasons why they may be wrong and possibly dangerous to you and your loved ones.

Their Myth Reasoning (not me talking/writing) – Most of the beginning and intermediate level preppers I’ve met believe that they will be defending their property against a horde of starving or otherwise malicious people, and they prep accordingly. It’s important to note that no one who has actually tried to defend themselves against a large group of determined assailants actually thinks it can be done. The math is pretty simple: the horde has numbers on its side, time on its side, and its determination probably matches, in not exceeds, yours. If a large group of people decide that you’ve have something they want, that’s all there is to it. You can take a stand, but sooner or later, you’re going to run out of manpower, firepower, or sleep (or all three), and it’s all over. These aren’t slow-moving, unarmed, clumsy movie zombies who want to eat your brains – these are determined, smart people who are just trying to preserve their own lives, who can scale fences, create strategies, or simply overwhelm you with sheer numbers. This is why experienced preppers either live in a very remote location and/or conceal that they are preppers.

My Opinion – This could absolutely NOT be a myth if you define “yourself” as a larger, more organized, better armed horde than the one attacking you. Even a decent sized group (6 – 15) would have problems against 30 people of any horde. You can balance the odds a bit by communications (clear & secure), planning (clear mission/goals & planning well in advance), tactics (i.e. rings of defense, Immediate Action Drills), marksmanship, dependable weapons, defensible position, etc. But to think a family (say 4 – 6 members) can defend against a mob/horde, NO WAY! At least not for long. So your horde has to be better prepared, better organized and more determined than the other guy’s horde. It also makes sense to have a Plan B. I would suggest a Plan A finding yourself in a great community where preparedness and patriotism is a way of life.

 

 

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FAQ – 2/28/2019 (#2)

  • What about the Democrats “new green deal”…is there anything to it?

Well, my take on it is at the 60,000’ level. First off, the details of the proposal are insanity…at best. Seriously, they are totally unrealistic. But here is the important part…it is pure Communism. Yes, this is something right out of the old Soviet Union. A program like this would only ever be proposed by a Communist regime. And here is the main point…Democrats have signed on to it in droves, especially Democrat Presidential candidates.

Now, true that there are Dems that have referred to it as not being practical. But, many of those same people call it “aspirational” or a worthy goal. And there is a subtlety of it all. Those people still embrace the whole idea of the Communist plan, they just know they can’t get it implemented…yet. So they believe in the Communist concepts of the proposal!!!

What does all of that mean? The Democrat Party, and its members, are showing that they have become the party of Communist ideas and ideals. And that should shock you!

  • What is the “cool kid club” in prepper circles?

Ah, had to chuckle at that one. But honestly, it really isn’t anything funny; it is all too plain…and damaging. What? Why?

Well, on the less problematic side of it…go back to your high school years. Weren’t there different groups of kids? Some call them clicks. When I went to school there were the jocks, stoners, rednecks, hoodlums, etc. They tended to hang out with each other and usually didn’t do much crossover socializing. And from time to time there was tension or outright aggression, occasionally violence. Strangely enough the violence almost always originated from the jocks in our school.

In addition to those groups, there were also the “cool kids.” They were usually the pretty people, the athletic people, the cheerleaders, etc. The did the cool things, wore the cool clothes, center of attention at dances, prom King & Queen, etc. A lot of kids wanted to be part of the “cool kids” but those that were “cool kids” usually didn’t accept new members…unless they were cool enough. Yeah for the most part they suffered, egotism, self-centeredness, delusions of grandeur, etc. But, they were still cool…at least in their own eyes.

So, how does that apply to preppers? There is the equivalent in the prepper community of the “cool kids.” Have you seen preppers that have a cult-like following? The hardcore tactical guy? The guy who people have questions of, send emails to, etc., but they seldom, if ever, respond? How about the guy who tries to sound like the final authority on subjects and others praise him for all his wisdom? Look around at the next prepper gathering you attend…who seems to be the center of attention?

So now you have an idea of my opinion of prepper “cool kid club” and it is not a good opinion. Why? Because they tend to hold themselves above others…and a lot of others encourage that.

Why is that a bad thing? Well, in and of itself, it is not. The problem comes in when it actually starts creating different “class” distinctions of preppers. For those of us that are LDS we read in the Book of Mormon over and over again how society suffers greatly when people create class distinctions and elevate some people over others. In the New Testament shows how the Sadducees and Pharisees behaved…they were very pompous and felt they were better than others…and acted that way towards others.

I think the perfect example of how we should treat each other is the example Christ set. He mingled with, ate with, talked with, walked with anyone and everyone. He was a true man of the people. He didn’t elevate himself over anyone. Heck, he even washed folks’ feet for them!

Bottom line…don’t become a member of the prepper “cool kid club”…it isn’t worth it. And, don’t worry about the prepper “cool kid club”…they mostly just seek for the veneration of others…and ego feeding frenzy. Treat everyone the way you want to be treated…leave the ego behind.

Disclaimer: Yes, I got carried away from time to time with who I thought I was. I haven’t always treated people as well as I should have. But, I never, ever thought I was a member of the prepper “cool kid club.” So, if I have ever come off that way, given you that impression that I was a member of the prepper “cool kid club”…I sincerely apologize.

  • Why do you say “don’t believe me”, “don’t trust what I say”?

Well, simple…I want you to do what is right for you. I do a lot of research, I practice what I prepper preach. I believe in what I tell you. But, I don’t want you to believe me. I want you to prove me right or prove me wrong. Why? Because I feel prepping is that important.

And now…I also want you to treat other prepper “experts” the same way. Don’t believe what experts say…challenge what they say. Figure out if what we are saying is true or not. Do not trust the fate of you and your family in others.

There are many folks out there that give some terrible, sometimes horrible, prepper advice. And honestly, it doesn’t matter if they/we are well-intentioned or not. What matters is how it affects/impacts you and your family.

Sorry, I get a little passionate when I talk about this subject. Why? Because I read so many things that I feel is so wrong for prepping. Yes, that is an “opinion” on my part. Look, I’ve been on thousands of incidents, hundreds of large-scale emergencies and disasters, and I see what works and what doesn’t. I see some folks give advice that I know is wrong, other times something just feels wrong. And I have a hard time being quiet about it. Why? Because I don’t want your family to be hurt by bad advice…whomever it comes from. Only you know what is right for you and your family. So you have to take the responsibility to know what to do…or not.

Bottom line…I want you to figure out what is right. So I tell you to knot believe me in the hopes that you will figure out what “right” is for you and your family.

  • Can you recommend good quality 20-year prepared meal food storage?

Here is the central page for all things “food”…avoiding starvation <read more>

Here is the page specifically for long-term food storage <read more>

For specific brands I like Mountain House and Thrive. If you can find a Thrive dealer in your area you can get some pretty good deals…especially if you are willing to host a “party” or coordinate a large group order.

 

 

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TRAP – The #1 obstacle to people getting prepared for emergencies and disasters is Normalcy Bias.

Normalcy Bias - Man with head in the sandI have never seen any reliable formal studies on what percentage of the US population is prepared for disasters and emergencies. Based on my 40+ years of experience I would say less than 3% for the most minor of emergencies and disasters that would last 10 days. For a longer-term disaster (i.e. hurricane Katrina) I would say that % drops to no more than 1% – 2%. For true “grid-down” I honestly believe that % is somewhere around .1%  (less than 1%) in the absolute best case scenario.

There are a number of reasons for the lack of longer-term and “grid-down” preparedness. Of which I think the top ones would be finances, knowledge and motivation. But for the average person being prepared for the most minor of emergencies and disasters would be Normalcy Bias. I written about Normalcy Bias before (TRAP – Normalcy Bias can kill you quicker than Competency Bias.).

And here is the thing…97+% of people don’t want to hear about emergency & disaster preparedness at all. Why? It is scary and way outside of what anyone really things will happen. Let me tell you I’ve seen folks who live in the forest with trees, brush and grass all around them. Then they can’t believe it when a wildfire is threatening. So how are those same types of people gonna process that the grid could come down? Come on, they couldn’t even fathom the damage a hurricane could produce living in New Orleans BELOW sea level!!

Normalcy Bias is the single biggest hurdle for almost everyone to overcome in preparing for emergencies and disasters.Normalcy bias - question mark holding man down

So, what is your Normalcy Bias preventing you from doing?

 

 

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TRAP : REI wool socks…

I hate issuing warnings, but sometimes they are needed. This is one of those times.

A bunch of years ago I purchased REI brand wool socks and really liked them. And like all socks, they finally wore out. Time to replace them!

So about two months ago I purchased a couple different pair of REI Co-op brand socks. And here is the sad part…I didn’t really spend enough time looking at the “tech specs” of the socks I purchased. Yeah…me!

A couple of weeks ago I noticed one night as I was taking socks off that the space underneath my toes, just forward of the ball of my foot was damp. That is not supposed to happen with wool socks! So, I tried another pair of REI Co-op the next morning, and the same thing that night. Time to test!

So, I take all four pairs of the REI Co-op brand wool socks and wash/dry them. I wear each pair (1 pair all day, I day each) for four consecutive days. All had the same results. Bad!

Wool socks that make your feet damp is a bad thing…a very bad thing! In cold weather that good spell disaster.

I then tried a couple pair of my Smartwool socks and my feet were just fine.

That means I now have to say don’t buy REI Co-op brand socks. They are not good for your feet.

Why were they creating the dampness? The REI Co-op brand of socks actually have a high percentage of “non-wool” materials (i.e. nylon, spandex, Lycra, etc.). I think anything less than 90 – 95% wool is not the way to go.

TRAP – Do not rely solely on yourself for survival, you will fail.

LoneWolfThere is a “lone wolf” mentality in the prepper world that says you can survive by yourself (or just you & your family) tucked away in a cabin somewhere away from a fallen society. I say that is pure hogwash!!!

You might make it for a couple of days, a week or 6 months…maybe even a year. But survival takes a lot of skills and resources to be successful. And I am willing to bet that even with a large family you don’t come close to having all those skills.

Example #1: How about security? In “grid-down” with a threat of physical harm you must provide security for your location. How many people does it take to provide 24/7 security? Let’s say just one person at a time on duty. OK, how long are the shifts? How many shifts per day? How do they rest when they are not providing security? Do they have other physical responsibilities when not providing security? I say it takes a minimum of 4 adults to provide minimal security for a location 24/7. And then it is questionable how long they can keep that up before they become burned out and complacent.

Example #2: Your wife’s appendix bursts, how do you keep her from dying? Are you a doctor with surgical capability?

Example #3: Your truck quits working because you blew a rod. Can you fix it? Can you manufacture a new rod?Group-PeopleShooting

Your only chance of survival long-term is in a group with the right combination of skill sets. Plus, it is more enjoyable than cabin fever! Go find yourself a self-reliance group and work with them to make it a great experience…and improve your odds of survival.

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TIP: 2 for 1 special!

OK, first “Tip”…I love Columbia and North Face outerwear gear. Their jackets, coats, vests, etc. are top notch and what I personally use. I don’t think you can go wrong with those two brands.

 

 

Second “Tip”shopgoodwill.com !

This winter we decided it was time to update and replace much of our outerwear. We did our research and came to the conclusion that Columbia and North Face brands were really good and best suited us. But…that stuff is very expensive when purchased through normal channels. So my wife starts looking around for deals…and BINGO!  Shopgoodwill.com

We did a test run and bought a used item from that website. It was amazingly low priced and when it arrived it was in perfect shape. We have now transitioned to far better quality outerwear than we previously had. And we did it at about 10 – 25% of the price of new. And everything we bought was in “like new” condition. Actually a couple of items came with the store tags still on them.

Go check out shopgoodwill.com and see if it will work for you!

Bonus “Tip”…try to buy items in the off-season when there is lower demand.

 

 

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TIP: Food is not your #1 priority.

QuestionMarkCome on…really? Do I have to explain this one to you? You can live for 2 – 3 weeks without food. Sure, you won’t be at peak performance and you will lose weight but you won’t die.

There are other things that you can die from much sooner and much easier. Such as a gunshot, a cut artery, a bashed-in head, and dehydration to name just a few. So you might want to cover those bases before you worry about storing a few years of food.

What should your priorities be? Read “Setting Priorities”

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TIP: Don’t tear a fence down…

In its fullness…Don’t tear a fence down until you know why it was put up.

In the prepper world you can find a lot of “experts” recommending this or that. There is always some new gadget, piece of gear, latest equipment, or method of doing something. Some of it is way cool, helpful, and a huge improvement. But, don’t abandon the old ways until you know why people do it the old way.

In the political arena there is always some blockhead politician saying we need to change this or that. Examples: Increase gun restrictions, eliminate the Electoral College, Green New Deal, etc. But, what is the long-term effect, or the ripple effect, of their proposed changes?

Bottom line…Before you go tearing something down, changing something, replacing something, restricting something…figure out why they did it the original way to begin with. The fence may be there for a very good reason.

 

 

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