I was going to release a post regarding this yesterday but I decided against it. This event is potentially too large in scope and significance to simply regurgitate information that would be 99% speculation. This morning, it’s different.
- The pipelines involved are Nord Stream 1 & Nord Stream 2.
- The pipelines, when operational, deliver natural gas from Russia to Germany.
- Natural gas was flowing, and/or present, in one or both pipelines at the time and there is no time-frame as to when the gas might be shut off.
- The company that operates the pipelines is called Nord Stream AG, a German company.
- Two explosions occurred; 1) southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm on Monday morning, 2) northeast of the island Monday night.
- After the explosions there are three reported leaks of natural gas into the Baltic Sea causing environmental damage and posing a threat to shipping.
- After the explosion Norway reported a significant increase of drone activity in the area recently, prior to and after the explosions.
- The governments of Denmark and Sweden almost immediately reported that the explosions were not caused by a natural event or an accident, both called it sabotage, both declared that it was not an act directed at their countries.
- Poland also declared it an act of sabotage but didn’t state that it wasn’t directed at them. And they went on to say, “The era of Russian domination in the gas sphere is coming to an end. An era that was marked by blackmail, threats and extortion. We can clearly see that this is an act of sabotage, an act that probably means a next step of escalation in the situation that we are dealing with in Ukraine. Depending on the scale of the damage, the leaks could even mean a permanent closure of both lines.”
- Nord Stream AG is investigating the leaks to assess when the pipeline might be repaired and returned to an operational status. Their statement gave no reference to any time-frame. The extent of the damage means the Nord Stream pipelines will not be able to carry any gas to Europe this winter.
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was asked by a reporter if the leaks may have been caused by sabotage, he replied, “No version could be excluded. This is an unprecedented situation that requires an urgent investigation. We are extremely worried by this news.”
- The explosions and subsequent leaks shutting done gas delivery, current and future, occurred on the same day that a new natural gas pipeline (Baltic Pipe) between Norway and Poland was dedicated/opened.
If it was sabotage, which I absolutely think it was, such an act would be easy to carry out. Nothing more than a boat, a couple of divers and a couple hundred pounds of explosives would do the job. It could also have been carried out with more sophistication by a drone and a torpedo style weapon. And a little higher on the sophistication scale, it could have been carried out by an underwater craft.
Let’s take a few minutes to talk about the “who done it” scenarios…
Enviro-Nazis or any other radical environmental group could almost be ruled out from the get go. They do marginally have the ability to carry out an operation such as this. But, would they? While it will cause notable damage to the environment, they could easily have used it to draw attention to their cause and force eco-friendly actions to be taken. But I think this is probably the least likely scenario…but as remote as it might seem, it’s still an option.
If Russia did this to itself you would have to wonder “why?” in a big way. Russian natural gas supply to the European Union (EU) via the pipelines was a source of hard currency which Russia needs to fund its war in Ukraine. The gas supply also gave it considerable influence on EU policies and actions, specifically in regards to the war in Ukraine. Cutting off both their own money and power would seem self-destructive, if not an act of national suicide. But that may also be the reason that Russian operatives did it. No, not on the orders of Putin, but perhaps as part of a larger operation to topple Putin from power. Yes, that means that some anti-Putin group may have used this as a “last straw” to force Putin from power. At the same time it may have been Putin who is behind this. It could be used by him to rally his population, and more importantly his military, to fight against outsiders who wish to hurt/destroy the emergence of the Russian Empire.
I highly doubt that this was a NATO operation. I think NATO has a hard time deciding what color the tablecloths should be at their meetings let alone being able to plan and carry out an operation such as this. I would also say the same regarding the EU being behind this.
An almost too obvious culprit would be Ukraine. Their motives would be clear and understandable…cut off Russia’s power over the EU and reduce Russia’s ability to fund the war against them. And Ukrainian military forces have both the training/ability and technology to carry out such an operation…especially if the US assisted. However, if it was discovered/exposed that Ukraine was behind this then Russia would react in-kind…and react far greater on a relativity scale. This would be a perfect excuse for Russia to use a tactical nuke against a target inside Ukraine. Or, use an conventional strike against a Ukrainian nuclear power plant. And considering the president of Ukraine has urged the US to preemptively strike Russia with nuclear weapons…this scenario seems likely. But, it would also lead to a continuing escalation to a possible full-scale nuclear exchange between Russia and the US.
A somewhat less obvious choice would be Poland. And let’s look at the facts…there is a deep-seated hatred between Russia and Poland. After Germany invaded Poland during WWII the Polish population was decimated beyond belief. When the Soviets liberated Poland from German occupation…the Soviets beat the Polish population into Communist submission where it stayed as a vassal of the Soviet Union for decades. But remember too that Poland and Russia have been fighting on and off for hundreds of years. With the newly opened pipeline shipping natural gas from Norway to Poland it makes Poland the new player on the block with both new found power and money. And don’t forget that this event not only removes Russia as the gas supplier, it removes Germany as the EU gas distributor…both lose money and power.
And now the United States of America…well, this would be an easy operation for the CIA, the US Navy, or any branch of the US Special Forces community. If you look at the unmitigated stupidity of the actions carried out by the US in the last 3 – 4 decades then the US behind this seems plausible. If you look at the insanity and utter evil of the CIA it would make it seem highly likely that the US did it. If you look at the combined folly and incredible minuscule mentality of the US government in the last 60 years then it would be highly likely that the US did it. If you look at Biden’s dementia and low mental capacity it would seem highly likely that he would order it done, or approve it to be done, to cripple Russia. And yes, an hour later not even realizing that he had ordered it done. And it would make perfect sense that the US government would do it in their demented thinking; 1) cripple a Russian money generator, 2) virtually eliminates Russian influence over the EU, 3) humiliates both Putin and the Russian government reducing their standing and influence on the world’s stage, 4) provide all the excuse needed for internal opposition forces in Russia to overthrow Putin.
So I see the two best, most likely scenarios, as to who is behind this as the United States and Russia, #1 & #2 respectively…and Ukraine as a close #3, Poland not far behind at #4. But here is the kicker to all of this…it may not matter at all who actually did it. It is more important what countries do about it that matters…and who gets the blame whether they are at fault or not.
Russia – If Russia blames another country then Russia has a recognized right to strike back. And this attack on their pipeline could be seen as an overt act of war against Russia should they wish to consider it such…and they would be right to do so. So, if Russia affixes blame to a country then Russia will strike back…as would any country rightfully should and would. If they blame the US expect Russia to retaliate, then expect the US to retaliate in kind…and we could be looking at the start to WWIII. If Russia blames Ukraine then expect Russia to hit Ukraine hard, then expect retaliation against Russia. If nuclear weapons are used by any country at any time, then expect the situation to escalate into WWIII. If Russia blames any NATO or EU country then expect Russia to strike and strike hard, but probably covertly. I wouldn’t expect any EU country to retaliate in-kind with the exception of Poland.
NATO/EU – I expect these coalitions to eventually attach a “cause” to the explosions and probably blame Russia itself along with encouraging Putin to be overthrown. But, I wouldn’t expect either to retaliate or escalate.
USA – I expect the United States government to push one piece of disinformation/lie/propaganda after another in regards to the origin of this event. Little to nothing the US will say about it will be true. And everything said and/or done will be directed towards overthrowing Putin. And this will be stupid beyond belief! The US manipulated the overthrow of Iraq…and Iraq and the world is worse off for it. The US manipulated the overthrow of Afghanistan…and Afghanistan and the world is worse off for it. And the US has a long history of overthrowing countries…and those countries being far worse off than before the US’s illegal/immoral intervention. The same will be true with Russia. Should the US succeed in overthrowing Putin, both Russia and the world will be worse off when the dust settles in Russia.
Last thought: Would/Could Biden be behind such a move? Yes, without question and without any doubt on my part. Biden, first off, is mentally incompetent suffering from significant dementia. And politically he has already lost the next Presidential election and he has even lost the support of his own party for his reelection. The US is in turmoil the likes we haven’t seen since the Civil War. A move like this is exactly what a deranged, insane, desperate President would do to distract and deflect. And Biden fits every one of those descriptors…deranged, insane, and desperate.
Bottom Line – This sabotage operation has little to no chance of a good outcome. At the very least it dramatically worsens the energy situation as Europe enters winter. At the other end of the scale this could end up in WWIII or an outright nuclear weapons exchange between two countries that have 13,000 nukes at their disposal. Let’s hope that cool heads prevail within Russia. Let’s hope that the US didn’t carry out this operation, for it they did…then once again the US government plays the role of Dr. Evil on the world stage. Pray that no country attaches blame to any other country whether they could or not. Pray that this just slowly fades away into oblivion.
We don’t need anyone to decide that this is a perfect cause of action to retaliate and escalate, or overthrow.
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