Paul writes…

Freedom is NOT a non-essential. It was only a few months ago when Christians and conservatives would often use this quote from Benjamin Franklin: “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.” Hardly any of them are using that quote today. Instead, they are expressing enthusiastic endorsement for the assaults against their liberties—in the name of SAFETY from corona.

More than that: They are frothing venom and hatred against anyone who dares to stand up for our constitutional liberties. These conveniently confused Christians and conservatives are regurgitating the very words and ideas that the Tories expressed toward our American patriot forebears. Recall that the great champion of liberty, the Rev. James Caldwell of New Jersey, was assassinated by a fellow American loyal to the tyrannous British Crown. These modern Tories would be happy to do the same thing to those preachers standing for freedom right now.

I know, because I receive and hear their hate-filled threats almost daily. Do you not find it interesting that the same Trump-worshipping Christians and conservatives who for the last three years kept telling us that the mainstream media (MSM) was “fake news” are now aggressively attacking anyone who doesn’t buy what the MSM is saying about the coronavirus? Talk about blatant two-facedness!

Make no mistake about it: We are in the beginning of a war against our liberties that will not subside until the American people decide, AGAIN, that essential liberty is more valuable than temporary safety.

As loudly as I know how to say it: FREEDOM IS NOT A NON-ESSENTIAL!!

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In regards to to my post Hoax Alert: Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S.posted on 3/28 (click here)

Barry writes…

“While I appreciate your alerts, I’m not sure that this qualifies as a hoax. This model could turn out to be accurate. The deaths due to Covid-19 in the U.S. are growing exponentially. We all hope that doesn’t continue, that as the weather warms up this thing slows down, that treatments like chloroquine work, and that other successful treatments are discovered along with a vaccine.”

My full response…

It is a hoax…in my opinion. They took a snap-shot sample of data in the MOST infected area of the country, during a time when it was growing the most rapidly for their model. There are several articles that were almost immediately published that have already discredited their report. But yes, there is always the chance that their model will be correct…but it is a mighty slim chance. And I am sure both of us hope they are wrong.

So, that being said…can we agree it is a very probable hoax?

And as a side note…..How many people in the US died from the flu in the 2017/2018 flu season?
Answer: 80,000 according to the CDC. Kinda interesting perspective.

Also, another note: The reason COVID-19 will more than likely slow down (as all flu does) as summer approaches is the sun. Flu viruses are very susceptible to UV (ultraviolet) light…it kills the virus. But, a word of caution, the Spanish Flu also died down during the summer, then came roaring back that fall.

Barry responded to my response…

“If you are modeling a hurricane in the Gulf do you use weather data from the Pacific North West? If you are trying to model an outbreak doesn’t it make sense to model the area currently getting hit the hardest? We can hope other areas don’t get hit as hard but the pattern will probably be similar. All areas being hit will experience their own curve.

At this time the average flu numbers look much worse. However we’re still early in the cycle and still on the way up on the bell-shaped curve. The number of cases and deaths are doubling every few days.”

My response to Barry’s response to my response to his feedback…

Great questions and somber words to ponder!

If you are modeling a hurricane in the Gulf you use Gulf data because the model’s projections only apply to that specific hurricane, in that specific location, during that specific time-frame, based on a very specific snapshot of data. So, we agree on that. So you can’t predict hurricanes in the Pacific Northwest based on data from the Gulf of Mexico. Entirely different data set (i.e. location, environment, temperatures, winds, tides, ocean currents, etc.) applies.

So any projections of the COVID-19 based on the state of Washington would only apply to the state of Washington (or general geographic area). And that would only be true if the data snapshot they used for the model was valid and reliable (i.e. credible). I am posting an article today that shows that these guys, and most so-called “experts”, are using math projections that are entirely wrong…”by orders of magnitude”.

But getting back to my point, no projections based on Washington data applies to anywhere else. Well, maybe to Oregon due to its close proximity. But, if the data snapshot came from an urban area of Washington alone, then the projections wouldn’t even apply to the rural areas of the state of Washington due to significant social differences (i.e. space between homes/property, number of daily interactions with people, contact with contaminated surfaces, healthier life style, etc.).

“...the pattern will probably be similar…” Again, no area where COVID-19 has appeared repeats the exact outbreak pattern or the same statistical numbers. So no, I don’t believe the pattern will be the same because that has not been the case so far. Similar? Maybe. But so far, the differences in pattern are greater than the similarities in pattern.

“All areas being hit will experience their own curve.” Absolutely true! And in each area, as more data becomes available, it is proving that statement to be true about experiencing their own specific bell curve. So each area is different in all aspects…with one exception…it appears that ALL mortality rates are grossly overstated. It appears now, based on the entire outbreak data pool and accurate application of mathematical formulas, that the true mortality rate could be somewhere between .1% to .06%, with the more accurate estimate closer to the .06%. However, if it is indeed as bad as the .1%, then the COVID-19 mortality rate matches a normal flu season outbreak’s mortality rate. And those numbers are almost certain to change as more valid and reliable data becomes available.

“The number of cases and deaths are doubling every few days.” Well, not entirely accurate. While the number of reported deaths are doubling approximately every four days may be somewhat accurate. We have absolutely no idea how many new cases there are…not even a clue. Why? Because; 1) there are simply not enough test kits, 2) many people who contract COVID-19 never show symptoms, 3) many people who show symptoms never have them severe enough to go to a doctor or the hospital, 4) many people who go to a doctor or the hospital never get tested because there aren’t enough test kits, 5) there are numbers now showing that, depending on the brand/type of test kit, there could be result error rates from 30 – 50%. So we still don’t have a good picture of accurate numbers…and probably won’t until well after the COVID-19 issues passes. And then it will still be estimates…albeit better informed estimates.

Thank you again Barry for the great interaction. I appreciate your free thinking and willingness to engage. Please keep it coming. While we both may have our opinions set in-place…others may benefit from our exchanges.

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Ron writes…

My local grocery store has made 6 am to 9 am for seniors only. I guess so they can shop without being tramped. People are scared acting. I hope the grabbing of mega amounts of stuff goes away and people shop like they normally would. My daughter asked me if I ever filled my shopping cart like she is seeing and I told her no, that we have always been fortunate to have a grocery store close by. I do have some extra food but I bought it a few extra cans at a time. I don’t think my kids are going back to school after this break and i think my work is closing up soon. Staying away from people for a while would be a wise precaution.

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John writes…

Mr Trimble, It’s past time for all of us to rise to the occasion and do something positive. My wife and I had a similar conversation as you had with your wife. It’s time to get over the panic and do something proactive to make this situation better. My wife is a seamstress, an avid quilter, and like most quilter’s she has a huge supply of fabric. She decided to go online to find out how to sew face masks for our first responders. She found a youtube video and now she is already up in her sewing room doing something to help lessen the shortage of masks.

I have decided to contact my nearest neighbors, to check on how they are doing, find out if there anything they need, and is there anything they can share. I will widen my circle of contact and if I find a neighbor in need perhaps I can pair them with a neighbor who has a surplus. We can start conversations and be the catalyst to help our neighbors overcome the shortages. By doing this, I am certain we will become closer to our neighbors, while still practicing social distancing.

Of course, the ultimately goal is to beat coronavirus! But, we can’t allow social distancing to separate us from our friends.

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WHL writes…

I can not control what others do.
For years I have discussed the need for at least minimal preparations with co-workers, friends, and family. Nearly all of them laughed at the idea, assuming “the government” or some other third party provider would step in. That is on them. Thankfully, all my adult children have to some extent listened to my warnings.

Personally, my wife and I have been preparing for years, a bit at a time, so we did not need to “panic buy”. Did we top up on some items, both in person and online? You bet, because my first duty is to my wife and myself. Beyond that is my family, and then friends. Yes, we do phone calls and emails. Yes, we have offered our home as a bug out location to other family members. Yes, we are prepared to defend what we have. Yes, I will help out my neighbors with some things, but there is very little I’ll do in person or in public. We are in one of the “at risk” groups, and for that reason, we choose to NOT socialize in person. We are unwilling to risk our health, even if the risk is very small. I think one of the best contributions anyone can make is to stay healthy and NOT become a burden to the health care system.

I must also say I DO NOT TRUST THE NUMBERS GIVEN OUT BY GOVERNMENTS, whether China, Italy, the USA or any other. Test samples are too small, and the tests themselves were (and perhaps still are) unreliable. Infection growth curves, particularly China’s are suspect. All governments, and the creations they spawn (WHO, CDC, AMA, the Fed, and others) have their own agendas. Finally, even if the virus is gone in a couple of months, it is likely the economic effects will last much longer.

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Barbara writes…

All great points. Thank you for the goodness you are encouraging and also doing. We are roasting a turkey today and will share with others. Then slow cook the carcass with veggies to make soup to share. There are many who have needs and we are all truly the Savior’s helping hands!

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Mark writes…

Thank you for your solid refreshing and well reasoned thoughts and observations. I follow your posts and totally agree with your assessment that the panic we are seeing is a far greater threat than the disease. And the results we are seeing are disheartening to say the least. But there are many bright spots that aren’t making it to us and I’d like to share one . This is from a local beloved restaurant owner that we have known and loved for years and are his own words:

“You guys are absolutely incredible. When I heard we were going to have to close down our inside dining I honestly was really upset and worried. I couldn’t sleep all night and just came down to the Restaurant to work. I would like to apologize. Im sorry i doubted you, our loyal customer base. You’ve never given us any reason to doubt you. You’ve always been there for us. And WOW 😂🤣😂🤣I was worried i was going to have to lay employees off. Now my concern is that I’m going to wear them out. My head cook said he thought we were going have to close down, Not have a re grand opening. Insane, awesome and unbelievable is all i can say. I can’t believe how crazy it was. All take out. Our staff did absolutely incredible. Though I know we had some huge mistakes. I apologize to those who fell through the cracks. Please let us know so we can redeem ourselves. I apologize to those who couldn’t get through, we had to shut our phones off several times. This is only our second night. We’ll get better. We’ll be better prepared. Ill be up all night again catching up so my cooks don’t quit on us. Thank you Thank you Thank you. We serious love you, and look forward to given back and serving you in the future. God Bless and stay safe “

Bottom line….. we can and should do everything in our power to help those around us cope with this situation. We are all extremely blessed to live in this country, in spite of our flaws, and I know we can get through this together especially with the help of the Lord.

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Jim writes…

“Once again. We are in agreement.

What is interesting, however, is that after such (relatively) intense actions by so many countries, COVID-19 still managed to spread so widely and still resulted in so many deaths. And we’re still in the middle of this here in the USA.

Still, the overreaction is remarkable. Multiple daily televided public briefings from the Presidentband his task force? Way overkill.

So what is really going on. I submit the following:

• The Dems, as is their wont, are seizing on this crisis to accomplish multiple goals.
  Crash the economy and stock market
• Make people miserable in order to reduce President Trump’s chances of reelection in Nov…as they played every other card in their and completely lost
• Along the way, make progress on as many socialist programs as they can, knowing the political dynamics are driving Republicans to accept legislation riders they otherwise wouldn’t have.

I won’t dwell on the Democrats, as they’re pretty transparent and obvious.

Still, they’ve forced the president and GOP into corners where they’ve had take far more aggressive action. Combine that with Democrat Governors acting unilaterally to force businesses to close, amplifying the Federal actions. So, the economy is melting down…but only partially.

Remember, there were no underlying factors that drove this economic slowdown. In theory, once COVID-19 is bag in the bag, the economy is very well prepared to rebound hard…with a bang.

The stock markets were already clearly overextended and frothy. Many traders and investors are happy to see such a deep dip, although they would rather not have had the economic freeze along with it.

What infuriates the Dems now is that they’ve once again underestimated President Trump! To their dismay, he has jumped to the middle of the fray and impressed most observers, even getting compliments from Dem governors and a few media types (who will pay high prices therefor). His approval numbers are going UP.

Rather than being the President that did nothing, personally allowed tens of thousands of Americans to die from a savage disease and thus personally destroyed the economy, and ruined tens of millions of American lives — they’ve got a president that is getting credit for saving lives and will soon get the credit for leading a massive economic resurrection…or at the least, the start of one.

All that will suffice to help ensure the president’s reelection.

And the Democrats are trapped. Having screamed so loudly of the dangers of the virus and the need to DO SOMETHING NOW…they can’t walk back. They have to watch as Trump gets hundreds of millions of dollars worth of FREE campaign advertising as he “personally” saves the lives of every single American!

The Democrats aren’t the only party that can take advantage of a crisis. Eventually, books will be written about Trump’s masterful turning tables against the Dems.

You can imagine the campaign ads already. Joe Biden screaming about Trump being excessive when he first closed US borders to Chinese citizens, and required screening of many others.

Then, the video will cut to Biden, just a few days later, screaming that Trumo had not responded fast or hard enough. Poor Joe.

Whatever the realities of COVID-19, Trump is winning the subsequent, somewhat hidden political battle. And the Democrats helped!

Jim”

AH writes: Hey Jim, Good points…all of them! Now, questions for you…Do you think this is more than just a Dem issue? Do you think there are other forces at play? We all know preppers…do think there is a slice of the prepper community that has gone off their nut as well?

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JP writes…

I find your articles very interesting and cannot find fault with your arguments. I was leery about what I thought was an overreaction to COVID-19 at first. However, after the situation in Italy, I started to drift in the other direction. And then, the massive government campaign to throw money at the problem started. Now, it appears to me that the government is taking an insane politically driven path that could possibly be triggering a major collapse of our economy!

For example, the proposal of giving a payment of $1,000 per taxpayer who can show that they were financially damaged by the loss of a job (Romney’s idea) does not make rational fiscal sense. That is not enough money to do anything of consequence on an individual basis. Financial responsibility to plan for economic emergencies should, for the most part, lay with the individual and their state unemployment office. Perhaps the best way to handle the present fiasco is to have the federal government assist the state unemployment funds and not just blanket the map with handouts.

Overall, we as a nation, are sinking deeper in debt to the point of possible insolvency! I have to wonder if this scenario is being manipulated with ill intent, or, if it is following a historic pattern in human behavior as noted in the book titled, “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.”

At the moment, I think the Government cure just might be worse than the disease. I also think that we need the scope of the problem rationally defined to help tone down the hysteria. The news media acts more like a “Barker for the Yak Woman” at the county fair than as news agencies.

Well, that is my take on things. I am going to maintain my health and keep a positive attitude and hope like hell our country, and all the other countries affected, recover quickly. My best to you!

JI writes…

“I am so freaking DONE with purveyors of fear porn, be they part of the D/S/C media complex on the left who want to hurt Trump, or the hard righters who seem to LOVE the whole idea of the zombie apocalypse and keep doubling down on the doom and gloom and catastrophizing. They are creating the problem.”

AH writes: Amen JI ! ! !  I like your term “fear porn”…very accurate! I see your point clearly…the hard right and some whacked preppers seem to have gone over the cliff…just like sheeple.

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