Threats, Risk, & Mitigation: Part 2

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There will be threats and risks to you and your family during any emergency, disaster or “grid-down” event. This is the second article in a series designed to help you systematically identify those threats Grid Down Chaos violence threats and risks during emergencies and disasters riotsand risks, then rate them according to the potential affect they can have on your family. Once that is established it makes it clear what your preparedness priorities are (or should be) and how to make your plan.

In the previous article in this series, I introduced the Threat Matrix and ran through a brief exercise on how to use it. The value in such a valid and reliable systematic approach to defining and identifying threat potential is without equal. If you don’t know and understand the threats you will face, how do you ever expect to properly prepare for them? If you haven’t read the first article I would highly suggest you do so now. <Click to read the article now>

Here is the Threat Matrix that I introduced previously –

risk managment for preppers - Threat Matrix for probability and severityIn the exercise in the previous article I asked you to just guess when rating the “Probability” and “Severity” aspects of the chart. Now I will give you some concrete definitions to go by. You can use mine or use them to give you ideas on developing your own definitions. Either way, once you are done, you will have a valid, reliable, and consistent approach to defining risks and threats.

Threat Matrix - Probability rating definitionsThis chart gives you clear guidance on how to define the “Probability” rating and what the “Timeframe” outlook will be. This will give you consistency when rating threats and risks to future events.

The next chart gives you clear definitions of the potential “Severity” or impact of the event –

Threat Matrix Severity Rating chartThis chart gives you clear guidance on how to define the “Severity” rating. This will give you consistency when rating the severity of impact of threats and risks to future events.

The next chart gives you guidance on step #1, listing and rating each threat or risk that you perceive you are facing –

Threat Matrix WorksheetHere is an example –

Threat Matrix Worksheet ExampleHere is your homework assignment, list each threat and risk that you feel you, your family, your group or Homework for prepperscommunity will face during emergencies, disasters or “grid-down” events. Then rate each item for probability and severity. Add the two numbers together and divide by 2 for the “Final Rating” in the worksheet.

Yeah, I know. It looks like a bunch of school work. And you are right, it is “prepper” school work. If you didn’t learn valid and reliable ways to properly assess risks and threats how else would you do it? Seriously!

Now, one more piece of the puzzle before I close this article, the mitigation that should take place for each category of risk and threat that appear in the pretty colored Threat Matrix.

Concern Level and Mitigation Efforts to be taken –

little concern to worry about risk and threat for risk managmentLittle: Maintain awareness of these events, their timing and potential to move-up the scale should be reviewed and discussed regularly. A plan should be developed and discussed identifying the events and the potential trigger points that could move them to a more severe or higher probability rating and the resulting impact. These potential events should be formally reviewed at least every 3 – 4 months for movement; weekly in times of emergencies, disasters or “grid-down” events.

Moderate concern for risk and threat for risk managmentModerate: A written plan for corrective action must be completed within 60 days, mitigation begun within 6 months and completed within 12 months. The action plan must include steps to avoid the potential for serious injury, disability and the potential for death for the more significant events. A written plan should be developed identifying the potential trigger points that could move them to a more severe or higher probability rating and the resulting impact. These potential events should be reviewed at least monthly for movement; weekly in times of emergencies, disasters or “grid-down” events.

Serious Concern about risks and threats for risk managmentSerious: Corrective action must be taken quickly and decisively within 30 days to prevent significant sickness, injury or to cope with significant infrastructure break-down. Monthly status monitoring of these potential events must take place. A written plan on the criteria and trigger points must be developed for steps to take should the situation worsen. Additional correction actions to be taken must be implementable within 24-hours should a situation worsen. These potential events should be reviewed at least monthly for movement; daily in times of emergencies, disasters or “grid-down” events.

Critical concern for risk and threat for risk managmentCritical: Immediate corrective action required within 10 days to prevent immediate or imminent death or permanently disabling injury. Daily status monitoring of these potential events by leadership must take place. A written plan on the criteria and trigger points must be developed for steps to take should the situation worsen. Steps to take must be written and made known to all family/team/group/community members. Actions to be taken must be implementable within an hour should a situation worsen. These potential events should be reviewed at least weekly for movement; at least daily in times of emergencies, disasters or “grid-down” events.

I hope this has helped you understand how risk & threat assessment can help you think clearly, rationally and logically when it comes to prepping. With this system you can correctly figure out what your biggest threat/risk is, how likely it is to occur, how severe of an impact it will have on your family and what to do about it.

In the next article in this series I will present my top nine risks or threats that I feel are worth identifying and rating in the Threat Matrix. Then I will explain how to “mitigate” the risk or threat. Look for this coming article, it will be worth the time to read!

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Threats, Risk, and Mitigation: Introduction

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In my day job I was responsible for ordering my folks to take risks; Wildland Firefighters face risk and threats in daily jobsometimes we risking our lives. It’s just what we do…and we were OK with that. It was our duty.

As “preppers” we must also understand threats & risks, how to rate them with a valid & reliable system, and then how to mitigate those threats and risks so they don’t destroy our family or group. I will do all of that in this series of articles.

Now, WARNING!…if you like fluffy prepper articles this is NOT for you. This series of articles will requiring thinking and learning. It will require effort. So, if you are a fair-weather prepper giving lip-service to this, if it is simply a hobby, then move on to another website article.

However, if you put in the time and will are willing to learn…you might just learn stuff that could one day save your life…or that of your family.

Moving on…

As firefighters we take the most risk by being unhealthy and driving our fire trucks. Yeah, movies and TV shows Fire Engine Wreck is more serious firefighter risk than getting burnedwould like you to think the greatest risk is running into some burning building, flames licking at our heels, roofs crashing in and the like. But that is TV and movie stuff; our greatest risks are vehicular accidents and not staying in-shape and healthy. When I moved into the wildland firefighting side of things the chance/risk of being in a “burnover” did go up significantly but has not replaced health and traffic accidents as the primary risks.

So what does this have to do with “prepping” and “grid-down?” Everything! Yes, I will explain but I had to set the stage and get your attention first.

So what are some of the ways that you might get sick, hurt or dead when the grid-goes down or a more mundane disaster or emergency hits:violence during grid-down is a risk and threat to your family

  1. Violence
  2. Lack of medicine or medical care
  3. Poor communications
  4. No organization or plan
  5. Dehydration
  6. Exposure
  7. Starving

So, now that you have a general list what do you do? I say you start to narrow down more specifically what exact events might take place to cause those things to happen.

Why do this? So you can take steps to reduce their impact. Why reduce their impact? So you and your family don’t get sick or die.

If you’ve been reading my articles for any length of time you know I like proven and reliable “systems” to guide me in my prepping. Systems greatly reduce mistakes when implemented correctly. And they do so by diminishing the impact of bias and opinion. Both bias and opinion can harm preparedness spending, direction, and plan implementation effectiveness.

I’ve already shared how to set priorities and make effective and consistently high-quality decisions in the preparedness world. That system is called L.I.P.S. and you should take a moment to read about it if you haven’t already.

OK, I listed above some of the ways you can become a casualty. And that list comes from events; some are Incidents pose risk and threat that is mitigated through risk managmentdisasters, some are emergencies, and my favorite, “grid-down.” But all of those terms describe a broad category of events, we want to talk about specifics. Doing so will then make it very clear where we want to direct our preparedness efforts and money. The specific events fall into a general systematic definition called “risk.” Each potential event is a risk to our health and safety, and that of our families.

Risk Managment Probability of incident occurringThere are two aspects of risk that we are concerned about; 1) probability, 2) severity.

Probability simply means, how likely the event is to occur. And in the prepper world I extend that to, and in what time-frame relative to now. So I have defined probability as Risk Managment Severity of impact if incident does occurrHow likely is the event to occur and how soon.

The other aspect of risk is severity. Severity is defined as If the event does occur, how bad the outcome will be.

Combined as a complete definition it reads…

“How likely will the event occur from now and how severe will the outcome be?”

Yes, there is a whole lot of “judgement” that can take place when working with that definition. But not to worry, I will give some guidance on how to reduce “guestimates” and deal more with sound judgement.

Now that we have identified the two main players in “event risk” and the yardstick to judge the probability and Risk Mitigation by reducing probability and or severityseverity, we can discuss how to increase our chances of surviving the identified event with its associated risks. And it is actually very simple two-step process; 1) reduce the probability that the event will occur, 2) reduce the severity of impact to our family. That process is called “risk mitigation.” And the process is best described by example:

In the early 1960’s safety experts became very concerned about vehicular accidents and the growing fatality and injury rates. So they embarked on reducing both; and they did so by looking at how people were getting injured and being killed. Then they began to look at ways to reduce the probability of vehicle accidents and reduce the severity of accidents should they occur. By using the two-prong approach they knew that should they be successful, fewer people would die and/or be injured.

Probability that a vehicle accident would occur – How did they approach this aspect over the last 60 years?

  1. Increasing the driving age.
  2. Requiring driver training for new drivers.
  3. Adding side mirrors.
  4. Improving roads, signage and traffic lights.
  5. Back-up warning.
  6. Lane encroachment warning.
  7. Auto-braking.

Severity should a vehicle accident occur – How did they approach this aspect over the last 60 years?

  1. Seat belts.
  2. Shoulder belts.
  3. Nader pins in car door frames.
  4. Crumple zones.
  5. Air bags in the dashboard.
  6. Side air bags.

Each step they took reduced the probability that a vehicle accident would occur, and if one did occur, the severity to those inside the vehicle would be reduced. I am sure you could apply that same thought process to any number of aspects of life, including your working environment. OSHA has made a whole industry and legal system doing so.

How does this system apply to prepping? Exactly the same way!

Let’s do an example to test that statement. Many, if not all disasters, would present the risk of lack of water supply. Finding water during emergency and disasters is risky and a threatSo the identified risk is “water supply.” How probable is a safe and stable water supply affected by any given emergency, disaster or grid-down event? I can tell you this, any grid-down will stop any municipal water supply pretty quickly; same goes for most disasters. And try buying bottled water even during an  emergency event. So the probability of lack of water supply is almost assured.

So, how do you reduce the probability that you would run out of water for your family?

  1. Water storage.
  2. Water filtration capabilities.
  3. Identifying a close-by water source (stream, lake, river, run-off pond, etc.).
  4. Drill a well or install a large capacity storage unit.

So by identifying ways to mitigate the probability that your family will suffer from lack of water supply you are coming up with solutions to a problem. But what about the severity aspect of no supply of safe drinking water?

If you think about it, it becomes pretty plain. No water supply means dehydration. Dehydration leads to incapacitation…and death pretty quickly thereafter.

But now that you have identified the probability of it occurring and the severity of it occurring you are in a better position to make decisions on time, effort, and budget considerations when dealing with preparedness priorities. Water supply would be a pretty high priority.

So for an exercise to better show how this would work let me introduce the Threat Matrix –

risk managment for preppers - Threat Matrix for probability and severityWithout getting into any formal definitions, take our list of threats that I discussed earlier and rate them according to the scale of 1 – 10 for probability and severity on the chart above as it relates to you and your family as of right now. And this will be for any emergency, disaster or “grid-down” event you can think of. Or you can combine those three possibilities together. Don’t worry about the exact definitions of the terms Probability and Severity. Just make your best guess. We will go over the terms in more detail later. The threat list items are:

This is my rating for events and associated risks that I think would occur and how they would affect my family right now.5 basic threats for emergencies disasters grid-down preppersThreat Matrix-and basic risks for emergencies disasters and grid-down for preppers

So the “matrix would now look like this –

risk managment for preppers - Threat Matrix for probability and severity5 basic threats for emergencies disasters grid-down preppers

So, taking a look at the chart, ask yourself, “Based on the level of concern on the chart, what should we work on first?” Well, it becomes clear for me what my primary risks are –Violence during grid-down, emergencies, and disasters is number one #1 threat and risk

  1. Violence
  2. Lack of medicine or medical care
  3. Water supply
  4. Food supply
  5. Exposure

So I identified the risks and set them in priority, it is up to me to then Risk Managment Mitigate by reducing probability severitydefine how to mitigate those risks. For me it would be pretty obvious that mitigating the “violence” risk would be my #1 priority right now. And how do I do that?

  1. Learn about Situational Awareness (SA).
  2. Identify specific violent risks through SA and mitigate those risks.
  3. Have a weapon for each member of the family and they are well trained in its use.
  4. Keep a low profile, not drawing attention to the family or house.
  5. Leave the area.
  6. Don’t tell anyone about our preparedness capability.

I hope that this makes sense to you. My goal is to give you a clear way to identify the risks you and your family have as you prepare for emergencies, disasters and grid-down. This system, when properly applied, will give you a way to competently identify risks/threats and then design a plan to reduce the risk. And reducing those risks is a matter of reducing the probability that it will occur and reducing the effects on your family should it occur.

In the next post I will give you the way to define probability and severity to make your Threat/Risk Matrix more valid and reliable. I will also show an example of using this same system and apply it to larger scale events. Yes, we will look at events and determine which are the most likely to occur. When we are done doing that you will be able to identify the individual risks for each. And you will then see which preparedness priorities are right for you and your family. Then you can develop your plan.

 

 

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Risks, Threats, and Mitigation

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I posted a series of articles on Risks, Threats, and Mitigation last year. I had originally posted those articles way back probably 5 years ago. When I resurrected the articles I posted them as “pages” under the “Principles of Preparedness” menu option on the main menu bar. But, they can’t be found on the left hand menu items and I neglected to include them (until today) on the Table of Contents page.

Yeah, that means the information was really hard to find. And that is simply unacceptable for me.

So today I am going to post each of those articles as separate posts, update the menu items on the left, and update the Table of Contents page as well.

I would strongly encourage you to read the articles. The information they contain could prove very useful in today’s unstable social climate.

To read the first article in the series <click here>

 

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PDF Files: Organization (ICS)

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These PDF files contain information and direction on how to organize for an effective response to an emergency, disaster or grid-down event. They are based on my series of articles “Preparedness & Organization” with considerable editing, revising, and updating. I have also included several more PDF files that you might find useful.

 

 

The overall document explaining ICS: <click here to download: PreparednessOrganization-ICS>

Next is a handout that is brief and outlines ICS: <click here to download:Handout20150907 >

Next is a basic Org Chart. It can be printed and used to help design your organization, or simply as a visual to help you “see” how it fits together. <click here to download: OrgChart1>

Finally, there is a large PDF file that contains ICS-300 training material. I was an ICS Master Instructor certified by FEMA to teach instructors how to teach ICS. It is the basic FEMA training material used as version 2 of the training. And it includes my edits and changes in the material. <click here to download: ICS-300 Training >

Please feel free to use the form below to request a specific subject/topic to be converted into a PDF file.

Request a topic/subject…

← Back

Thank you for your response. ✨




 

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Something to think about…I ask you

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What a very strange day yesterday…that spilled into this morning. Actually, it started a week ago when I started working on a new SitRep…and then the whole George Floyd thing erupted. Then came my “Something to think about…” post which drew some serious flak from a couple of readers. Then my follow-up which agitated a couple of those who were already ticked off at me. Weird times we are living in.

So then I decided to write an influencing and spectacular essay on some historical fact and perspective…impressing one and all with my keyboard prowess. So I began my research for that post. I love doing that kind of research and writing. Finding “dots” and then connecting them…especially when those dots span hundreds of years. Now mind you…all of this while I am stilling trying to get the new house more livable for us, tend our micro-garden, get the solar system settled in (including installing the new PV array), and try to unpack/organize my shop. Yeah, a little busy. And lest I forget to state the obvious…preparing for what is coming…the storm on the horizon.

Yesterday was a real gem…I had am 8-hour round trip journey on my hands going to the big city to pick up my $50 250w Canadian solar panels. Now I will tell you…I was excited about that! Yup, excited to be adding six 250w high quality panels to my system which is in dire need of more sunshine harvesting. $50??? Yeah, you read that right…$50! Now, they are used of course. The company I bought them from buys whole solar farms worth of panels when they get swapped out every couple of years for the newest, latest, and greatest PV panel. They test them, clean them, sell them, and stand behind them…at 20cents a watt! I checked em out, talked to a guy who has bought from them multiple times, was satisfied with the company, bought the panels and picked them up yesterday. Great trip! Well, kinda. OK, not so much.

On the way to the big city there were these huge information signs over the highway. They are computer controlled and can inform the driving public of whatever message the government wants to put up there. Very 1984ish! Well, yesterday they were informing drivers of the emergency order by the AZ Governor putting the state on a lockdown…an 8pm – 5am curfew. Yeah, a 9-hour per day police state. I was truly discouraged to say the least, more like depressing, possibly more…saddened might be more appropriate.

And without thinking I had been listening to various talk shows as I was driving. For whatever reason I started to really pay attention to what was being said and how and to whom. I noticed the following:

  • It was a black vs white thing
  • It was a AntiFa vs establishment fascist thing
  • It was a Democrat thing vs Republican thing
  • It was a criminal vs everyone else thing
  • It was cops vs everyone else thing
  • It was the military vs civilian thing
  • It was a Trump vs the world thing
  • And on and on and on and on…

The point being…it was one group vs another. Yeah, truly it was everyone vs everyone. Not that many days ago I called it cultural cannibalism, because as a nation we are eating ourselves alive.

About two years ago I was trying to figure out a solution to the problems America is facing. Trying desperately to come up with some new, fresh idea that would save our beat-up and drowning nation. I thought I had figured it out and even had a catchy title for it. I floated the idea on a website I belong to hoping to get some feedback from folks I respected…and for the most part, trusted. Wow! Was I in for a surprise.

Shortening that whole story, my post was almost universally rejected or ignored. The worst of the replies being ugly and unbecoming to those who would call themselves Christians. So basically, combining the responses, it came down to this…I was a Trump hater, Hillary lover, and wanted the conservatives to lose all future elections…and everyone should hate me for advocating correct principles over the realities of politics. Yeah, it kinda got under my skin…and I dropped the whole idea. Yesterday, after listening to the radio chatter, I decided to dust off my idea, change it up to my current thoughts, and bring it to you on this website.

Why “here”? Why “now”?  Because I think it is a sound concept, one that could work, and will work with the right people hearing it and understanding it. And of course, I have very limited influence in the world as a whole. My adult children listen to me to some degree. My wife does listen to me…but mostly to be polite I think. My neighbors don’t know me well enough to trust me enough in this matter. So that leaves you guys. I have hundreds and hundreds of people who have signed up to “follow” the website. Maybe as many as a couple thousand folks who visit this website fairly regularly. So that must mean you guys have some degree of trust in what I say…or ya’ll simply see me as some level of entertainment. I am good with either.

To accurately understand the background to what I about to propose we must go back 250 years. Back to England in the decades prior to the American Revolution…and then tie it into our Founding Fathers of the late 1700’s. One of the things our Founding Fathers dreaded most and spent considerable time worrying about was political parties. Why? Because they had watched what had happened in England earlier in that century. Basically it had torn England apart, caused a huge division amongst its people, created a civil war…and the Founding Fathers wanted none of it in the new America. Yes, I speak directly about “political parties” and the inherent evil they bring with them…ALL political parties. But, that is still not my point…well, not directly anyways.

So you can read that every Founding Father detested the idea, the concept, of political parties. Why? Because political parties divide people, cause strife, lead to violence, and destroy the underpinnings of countries…and has often destroyed countries all together. The founders spoke vehemently against such things infecting America. Too bad they couldn’t and didn’t prevent it.

Almost immediately after the Constitution was put into place, elections held, and our first president elected we find that two factions developed; 1) strong centralized government generally supported by businessmen, bankers and merchants, 2) decentralized governance to the local level generally supported by small farmers, artisans, and craftsmen. It became a bitter divide, almost sinking our country in its earliest years…and continues today…those who support big government and those who know better.

Strangely enough these differences in political beliefs were set aside when developing the principles that became the Constitution. All of our Founding Fathers and a host of other leadership of the day laid aside many of their personal political philosophies for a more purposeful endeavor…ensuring the best possible document that would guide our country into the future. Oh how sweet it would be if we could see that behavior in our day!

George Washington spoke passionately against the establishment of, participation in, and the use of political parties…and for good reason. He stated specifically that they would create domination, cause damage, and produce vengeance against members of the opposing party. He especially saw it, along with many other Founding Fathers, being in direct opposition to our Constitutional Republic principles and a sure way to destroy our country. Obviously he was right.

How does this manifest itself in today’s world? Really?!? Maybe I should I ask a far better and more realistic question…How does it not manifest itself in this conflagration of America we’ve seen now for decades?

So what is my solution…my vision of the future…my all-encompassing elucidation…my illuminating edifying concept? Oh sorry…it is not mine at all…simply a resurrection of the original idea of our Founding Fathers…principle vs politics. Yeah, it’s that simple.

Let me give an example or two…

No one but a psychopath serial killer would approve of police officer Derek Chauvin kneeling on the neck of George Floyd killing him and the continue to do so long after Floyd was dead. And especially when you consider that Floyd was handcuffed, begged for his life, couldn’t breathe, and three other police officers stood by and watched Floyd be killed. That is cold blooded murder…a principle that no one, other the most mentally ill, could approve of. No one can justify that kind of behavior from our police officers…no one. Well, no one that is sane or has an ounce of morals in them.

At the same time, no one but the most deranged and radical anti-Americans can stand by and watch buildings burned, cars destroyed, and worst of all, police officers shot at, pelted with bottles/rocks, and harassed. As a result of Floyd’s murder the wanton destruction of property, the perpetration of violence towards our police is simply unacceptable…morally wrong. The principle of such behavior is wrong by any standard by any decent person…period!

As I listened to the radio chatters yesterday on my drive for the PV panels there were only two sides…those supporting the violence and destruction, trying to justify it…and those opposed to it, and attempting to justify any and all action to stop it…including more killing. So we have two opposing parties in this issue…and I bet if we did a little research it would break down along Democrat/Republican lines. Maybe more accurately…along liberal/conservative lines. Then again it could also be broken down to…anarchists vs law& order folks. But what I didn’t hear…not a single discussion about the principles involved. Killing is wrong…wanton violence and destruction is wrong…protesting is right…objecting to police violence is right.

Here’s what I am getting at…take the same people on either side and stop talking politics and start talking principles. What might happen?

Ask the group for a show of hands…

  • How many people think it is right and allowable for police officers to kill unarmed, handcuffed, compliant men who are begging for their life and can’t breathe?
  • How many people think it is right for groups of people to burn down local businesses, destroy people’s cars, and try to kill police officers?

Don’t give them a chance to bloviate…just a simple show of hands…they approve of each or not.

Other examples…

  1. How many people think it is right to be legally able to kill another person at will?
  2. How many people think it is right/allowable for a national government to be able to violently suppress their citizens with those citizens having no right or ability to defend themselves?
  3. How many people think it is right for a group to be able to forcibly take money from another?
  4. How many people think it is right for a group to be able to put you in prison for not paying a debt?
  5. How many people think it is right for a government to charge you to live on your own property?
  6. How many people think it is right for a government to force you to do certain things to your children?

I would think you would find few people supporting any of the above. However, the topics I was alluding to were:

  1. Abortion
  2. Gun rights restriction
  3. Income taxes
  4. Income tax collection enforcement
  5. Property taxes
  6. Public school requirement for all children

I hope I am being clear…talking about “topics” mostly brings about political posturing. I think discussing “principles” brings about convergence and consensus. And remember consensus does not mean compromise! Compromise is a bad thing…a very bad thing. It means people have to give up things to resolve an issue. And those issues rarely stay resolved for long. But consensus means harmony with all parties in unanimous agreement with the solution.

And that my friends resulted in the Constitution! And I believe that to be the single most inspired document in the history of man.

So what in the heck am I asking of you?

I am asking a lot!!  I am asking you to stop thinking in political terms…and start thinking in terms of principles. And when thinking in terms of principles seek to advocate for and to do what is right. I am asking you to not blindly support a Senator, Judge, Congressman, the police, the President, political party, the military, etc.. Only support principles that result in actions that are right.

Look at what a person or group does…and do you support that action based on correct principles.

Examples:

  1. I cannot and will not support any candidate or group who advocates for, or doesn’t oppose, abortion.
  2. I cannot and will not support any candidate who advocates for, or doesn’t oppose, the restriction of gun rights.
  3. I will not approve of, or accept, the US military being used against US civilians.
  4. I will not approve of, or accept, the police being able to get away with murder.
  5. I will not approve of, or accept, people wantonly looting and destroying property.
  6. I will not approve of, or accept, people trying to hurt police who are trying to protect life and property from wanton destruction.
  7. I will not approve of, or accept, the militarization of police.
  8. I will not approve of, or accept, the propaganda produced by any level of government for any topic or in any situation.

And the list goes on and on…you get the idea. So how does that apply to a conversation…or in everyday life? Let me stumble through a couple of examples…

If someone engages me in a discussion about the recent riots and they advocate for the “left” and accuse the “right” of causing the problem. I might respond with, “I think it was horribly wrong for a police officer to kill George Floyd and I hope the officers involved are tried, convicted, and see prison time. And I hope they catch all those burning buildings, destroying, and looting because they are nothing more than common criminals. We need to find a solution…we need justice, we need peace, we need respect, we need freedom and rights.”

If a person would say something such as, “I think it was horrible for Trump to tweet for police to shoot looters!” I might respond with something like, “I think we need moral leadership at the national level in this whole thing but the problems need to be solved at the local level where the problems are. And brother, the federal government is always a problem, never the solution.”

If a person expresses something like, “Shoot all the damn looters!” I might respond with something like, “I believe in a blind justice system, that a legal system applies equally to everyone. Those looters should be found, arrested, charged, tried, and required to payback all the damage they created. I don’t believe in a banana republic political system that allows a police force the right to shoot people on sight. I believe everyone is entitled to Constitutional rights and protections.”

Is a person says, “We need the military on the streets to stop all this nonsense and bring back law and order to our country!” I might respond with, “I believe that the Founding Fathers were correct in their beliefs and how they formed our Constitutional rights. The military was never meant to be a standing army and was never meant to be used against civilians on US soil. I support the Constitution and the Founding Fathers.”

I am asking you to decide what principles you believe in…what you believe to be right. Then I ask you to stop advocating for, or in, politics…especially political parties. I am asking you to advocate for, support, and to discuss “principles.”

How do you decide what is “right” when it comes to principles?  I can’t tell you what to believe…you have the right, and responsibility, to decide that for yourself.

For me I use two standards: 1) eternal God-based morals, ethics, and guidelines found in the scriptures, 2) the principles found in the Constitution and advocated by the Founding Fathers. The two are in perfect harmony; there is no opposition between them if properly understood and applied.

This country is all but destroyed. We have allowed politics of the Democrats and Republicans to undermine virtually all of our founding and Constitutional principles. We have allowed an all-powerful federal government to crush state governments. We’ve allowed all levels of government to remove almost every God-given and Constitution-ensured right we had at the founding of this country. As a country we have lost our way…to the point that evils reigns. And we did so by embracing what our Founding Fathers warned us against…political parties…politics over principles.

I am asking you to join me in trying this simple but daunting mission. Forego political parties, reject them as our Founding Fathers pleaded with us to do. I am also asking you to start choosing to follow, advocate for, and support only correct principles…and stop with the politics.

I am asking for, advocating for…principles vs politics.

 

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Something to think about…Current Situation (6/1/2020)

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This morning I was watching video of a portion of what transpired last night in regards to protests, riots, looting, etc. I was saddened beyond belief…we, as a country, were/are eating ourselves alive. Nothing short of social and cultural cannibalism.

There was senseless violence, looting of stores and businesses, fires, angry confrontations, random and ridiculous acts of destruction. Journalists specifically targeted and injured by police…intimidation as a goal. Then something interesting happened…a change started to occur in what I was seeing.

A video clip showed a youngish man was using a hammer to break bricks apart on a sidewalk; he was passing them out to a couple of young people who left the view of the camera. I can only assume what their intention was…criminal/destructive behavior. But, then a miracle took place! Several young men dressed similar to those with the bricks appeared and tackled the guy with the hammer, wrestled him to the ground, subdued him, then it got even better.

Unknown to me because of the camera angle there was a line of police maybe 50 feet from what was happening with the hammer guy…and the police did nothing. But, the young men that had subdued hammer guy wrestled with him while dragging him over to the police…and then turned him over to police. It was amazing…hammer guy was not going without a fight. So here was this one group of young protestors wrestling with the police helping them to get hammer guy under control. Once hammer guy was on the ground the police officers could be seen calmly tapping the protester assistants on the shoulders and obviously telling them they had it under control.

The young protestors walked away from the police and resumed their peaceful protesting. Amazing!! And it truly touched my heart. Was this an isolated incident or more widespread?

Then another video where a Sheriff, not a deputy, in Michigan, was standing with a group of deputies facing off with a group of very angry protestors. Another violent confrontation in the making. The Sheriff then did an amazing thing he took off his riot gear and approached the crowd asking to speak with them. About 20 mins later there was a bond in that small community interaction, the situation defused, the crowd dispersed, the officers left…and all had the understanding that the killing of George Floyd was horrific, criminal, unacceptable, and not going to happen in their community.

Then another video with another tense stand-off. But, you could see some of the protestors, angry to be sure, started talking to the front line police officers. I thought to myself that this was going to spark a violent encounter…I was wrong…oh so wrong. The crowd started chanting something like “kneel for George Floyd” and some of the protestors started kneeling. Then a couple of officers knelt, then more, then more. Next thing you knew there were protestors and police officers kneeling together and you could see the tension drain from both sides.

Then video from another large city where another large and tense crowd approached a line of bike officers…another powder keg. Chanting, shouting, tension…everything for another spark to ignite violence. But the officers didn’t get all macho Rambo…an officer approached the crowd and spoke with a couple of their apparent leaders. The conversation didn’t last long but the officer explained that they thought the killing of George Floyd was absolutely unacceptable behavior and they stood in solidarity with the protestors. The officers momentarily knelt…then walked away. The protestors milled about for a few minutes and then they too dispersed on their own accord. Within 10 minutes video showed virtually no one in that area of the city.

In Washington state another angry crowd formed…again, protesting the murder of George Floyd. Police officers showed up…in regular duty uniforms not military gear. The city police chief stepped forward to speak to the crowd…he was greeted with apprehension but was allowed to speak. A protest leader stepped up to him and handed him an electronic megaphone so he could be better heard. The chief spoke for a couple of minutes then answered questions from the crowd members. Some of the questions were tough, a few a bit rude. But the chief answered them all…it lasted about 30 minutes. At the end a protest leader got up and spoke well of the chief and “their” police…he asked people to remember what he said, respect them, and only protest peacefully. The officers left…the protestors continued walking and chanting…no sign of violence to be found anywhere.

My point?  A personal one to be sure…but important as well. Remember I spoke about avoiding binary choices? Remember I spoke about letting locals solve their own problems? Remember I spoke about using something other than militarized police or the actual military? Well, it can work! No, not every time…I understand that. But, I clearly saw where peace officers were proactive and engaged with the public, worked with those protesting, understood the actual problem(s), dropped the Rambo attitude, considered community over subjugation, valued life over submission…solutions were found.

It also takes protestors using reason and understanding to know when they have won. When you have police officers turning into peace officers it is time to understand you won…and then work together with those officers to form a better community. To give hope that all life can improve and overcome the evil that is out there.

Yes, there will continue to be senseless violence, destruction, looting, and all manner of evil in our cities over this and future injustices. But, for those who set their pride and ego aside, for those who will allow themselves some humility, there is hope. Hope for a strong, united, compassionate, and just community. People working together to make life, all life, better. A hope that differences and injustice is not met with tear gas, bricks, rubber bullets, thrown water bottles, martial law, fires, flash-bang grenades, looting, brutality, and a police state.

Too many are willing to be divided…accepting, even encouraging an “us vs them” culture. Too many willing to subjugate, to subdue, to crush, to win at all costs…regardless of the true price paid. True patriots do not want a police state, do not want militarized police, do not want military troops in the streets, do not want citizens beaten. And no, true patriots do not want to see journalists specifically targeted for intimidation or worse…victims of violence. True patriots understand protests and protestors. True patriots can even understand when those protests turn into riots…and property destruction. True patriots understand that is exactly where our Founding Fathers, militia members, Minute Men, and others had their roots when the USA was being born.

We have to, we must, avoid binary choices! We must step outside of the box, step outside of ourselves. We must meet others halfway…hell, meet them more than half way! We must work together to solve problems and defeat evil…ALL evil regardless of where it is found.

Why?

It is not hard to understand. There are forces at work in this country, in this world, that are trying to divide us, to conquer us. And when we allow them to divide us…EVERYONE loses. The officer who killed Floyd was a thug with a badge…nothing more than a sad, pathetic excuse for a police officer. And those who are burning, looting, and attacking police officers are no better…worse in my opinion in many ways.

But, both the badge thugs and the looters/destroyers are agents of those that wish to divide and conquer. And they are winning in many locations, in many ways. We can’t let that happen. We must work together in our communities to defeat those that wish to defeat us.

Who are they that wish to defeat us? Well, that is another whole discussion for another day. But, I would wager that most, if not all, of you know who they are.

We are in an unprecedented time in US history. We have a pandemic, we have a crashed economy, we have massive unemployment, we have a political system that is broke and getting worse, we have financial catastrophes coming at us that can easily crush us, we have politicians who wish us harm…if we allow it. Don’t allow it! Find solutions…don’t feed your ego. Work out problems with positive “win-win” resolutions…don’t go macho. Use humility when dealing with others…defeat ego driven decisions.

No, I am not advocating the abrogation of God-given rights, nor nonperformance of public or private duties and responsibilities. I am simply asking you to work together within your community to do what is right.

 

 

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Feedback & Comments: 5/30/2020

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AH Trimble Feedback and Comments

 

In response to my Immediate Action Warning this morning I received this passionate response…

OK, what exactly would be a correct response by government or individuals?
The police have abandoned large areas of several cities. They either can not or will not do anything. How many burglaries, assaults, robberies, rapes, and murders have been committed in the police no-go zones? How many scores settled?
Does this sound like France, Sweden, or Germany?

If troops, whether Guard or Regulars, are deployed (in spite of Posse Comitatus), will they have empty rifles?
For how many years was the traditional ROE for troops and civilians in disaster areas “You loot, we shoot”? Would you expect them to NOT shoot? Easy to say, if you are not in the line of men facing a mob. If not that, then what? Allow the mob to beat them down and take their select-fire weapons, or pull out and once again leave the streets and neighborhoods to the looters? No good choices, but which is worse?
Not making a choice is still a choice.
Civilians too will be quickly overwhelmed by sheer numbers unless they use deadly force, and at least one pawnshop owner (yes, a white guy) was arrested. After the arrest, the store was gutted. In law, in every jurisdiction I’m aware of, shooting to stop arson is a justifiable use of deadly force, as is the disparity of force of being faced by a mob. Apparently, MN has a “duty to retreat” law everywhere- except a domicile, so the choices for business owners are death, destitution, or jail.
https://heavy.com/news/2020/05/john-rieple/
How about these men, (who I’d side with and you will not find this on youtube)? Would they be arrested as quickly as the white pawn owner?
https://www.worldstarhiphop.com/videos/video.php?v=wshhhB2w3tSuRIVkX79A
Is the only alternative to simply leave the law-abiding at the mercy of the mob?
Just sayin’.
I wonder if the mayor and other members of the Minnesota Democratic Farmer Labor Party (yes really) have any idea what they are creating?
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party)
Who will tolerate a place where the cops only arrest the basically law-abiding non-violent “offender”, and the citizens are not allowed to defend either their property or themselves. Governors and mayors of the progressive blue states cry about the flight of the tax base, as they become ever more greedy and tyrannical, but so far, their only solution is to demand more bailouts and blame Trump for their own failings.

A lengthy and provocative post to be sure. But, it is also a tough post to respond to based on a number of factors; 1) passion, 2) straw-man arguments, 3) inaccurate/false set of choices, 4) presentation of binary choices,etc. So, I thought I would respond to some of the more specific issues raised to ensure clarification of my position and provide food for thought to readers. I will reproduce his post and then embed my thoughts/responses. But please, don’t let this sidetrack you from the purpose of the warning and actions to take.

OK, what exactly would be a correct response by government or individuals? (It was the government that caused the problem to begin with. It was one of them that killed the man. So the government is responsible for the problem. I am not saying that to excuse any behavior of the looters, but they didn’t just start looting out of thin air. The foundation of the problem is rooted in the government there.)
The police have abandoned large areas of several cities. They either can not or will not do anything. (I am not sure if that is true or not. I have no information that there is an official policy or such direction by local government leadership.) How many burglaries, assaults, robberies, rapes, and murders have been committed in the police no-go zones? (No idea, nor does anyone else know what those numbers are…if any.) How many scores settled? ? (No idea, nor does anyone else know what those numbers are…if any.)
Does this sound like France, Sweden, or Germany? (To me it sounds like a police force that allowed an officer to stay on the force WAY too long and other officers who stood by and watched one of their own kill a man. And it sounds like a subset of the population who are frustrated beyond my ability to comprehend it. And violence and destruction that should not be taking place. It sounds like the USA to me…I saw it many times over the decades going all the way back to the civil rights movement.)

If troops, whether Guard or Regulars, are deployed (in spite of Posse Comitatus), will they have empty rifles? (I can’t imagine they would have empty rifles and would not want them to have such. Putting troops in harm’s way and then not allowing them to defend themselves is unconscionable. Putting troops in the streets armed to the teeth is even more unconscionable.)
For how many years was the traditional ROE for troops and civilians in disaster areas “You loot, we shoot”? (No idea since I am not aware of and have not done research on all of those incidents.) Would you expect them to NOT shoot? (My primary opinion of shooting to kill is in defense of life.) Easy to say, if you are not in the line of men facing a mob. (It is easy to say! Because ALL people are free to have their own opinion and to state such. Lack of opinion, morals, ethics, and principles is a sure way to crash a society.) If not that, then what? Allow the mob to beat them down and take their select-fire weapons, or pull out and once again leave the streets and neighborhoods to the looters? (Of course not!) No good choices, but which is worse? (You are setting up a binary choice…and that is extremely limited thinking…tunnel vision at its worse. Allow locals to make the right outcome…not someone in Washington, not me sitting in my chair, and no one else unless they are directly involved.)
Not making a choice is still a choice. (No one ever suggested that. But assuming only binary answers to a situation is worse idea.)
Civilians too will be quickly overwhelmed by sheer numbers unless they use deadly force, and at least one pawnshop owner, yes, a white guy, was arrested. (You are speaking in absolutes and from passion. I understand that but it is quicksand foundation for developing a workable solution to the problem.) After the arrest, the store was gutted. In law, in every jurisdiction I’m aware of, shooting to stop arson is a justifiable use of deadly force, as is the disparity of force of being faced by a mob. (You are talking post-event not at the moment. And I am not familiar with the situation so I will refrain from responding more.) Apparently, MN has a “duty to retreat” law everywhere- except a domicile, so the choices for business owners are death, destitution, or jail. (Once again you are writing from a passionate perspective. “Duty to retreat” is a de-escalation tactic. Leaving the area rather than killing someone, or many people, makes sense in almost every situation…if you highly value life and its potential. Killing in self-defense is a God-given right and should not be suppressed, ever. So duty-to-retreat for a business owner means…life, insurance claims, clear conscious, and a plan to recover…NOT “death, destitution, or jail”!)
https://heavy.com/news/2020/05/john-rieple/ (Not familiar with the situation and it has zero bearing/impact on my opinion and viewpoint regardless of the facts in the matter. I was not respond to or write about a pawn shop owner.)
How about these men, who I’d side with and you will not find this on youtube? Would they be arrested as quickly as the white pawn owner?
https://www.worldstarhiphop.com/videos/video.php?v=wshhhB2w3tSuRIVkX79A
Is the only alternative to simply leave the law-abiding at the mercy of the mob? (If the media reporting is accurate…I applaud these folks!!!! They are the property owners and have rights. I hope they are well-informed and know what they are doing. If they kill someone there will be legal issues and a life-time of second-guessing and dealing with taking a life…probably PTSD to some degree. That could be a heavy burden. I hope they are trained in all aspects of dealing with this kind of a situation and not just acting out of passion of fulfilling some fantasy of who they think they are.)
Just sayin’.
I wonder if the mayor and other members of the Minnesota Democratic Farmer Labor Party (yes really) have any idea what they are creating? (No. Unquestionably “No!” That city has been out of control for decades. They have a police force that has been out of control for just as long…a police force that they have created and allowed to act as outlaws in many situations over the years. Officer Derek Chauvin has a long documented history of inappropriate and lawless behavior while on their police force. And that police force and city leadership allowed it to continue…if not encouraged it. They bear the blame, the burden, and should receive justice as well.)
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party)
Who will tolerate a place where the cops only arrest the basically law-abiding non-violent “offender”, and the citizens are not allowed to defend either their property or themselves. (That is rhetorical in nature and not applicable to this situation at all. But if you are speaking more generally…then the answer is a simple…”no” ) Governors and mayors of the progressive blue states cry about the flight of the tax base, as they become ever more greedy and tyrannical, but so far, their only solution is to demand more bailouts and blame Trump for their own failings. (And that displays their cowardice, lack of morals/ethics, and an absence of leadership. And oh so typical of who they are. Sad!)

This is why these kinds of situations are very volatile…and they seldom have good outcomes…only destruction and sadness…seldom a positive solution. It is also why people should be very slow to react to these situations unless they are directly involved in a life-death situation! Taking a hasty and ill-thought out action can result is damning decisions that will haunt the average person for the rest of their lives.

All of this being said…PLEASE go back a read the Warning and understand its purpose and not get sidetracked by a backseat issue/principle. Stick with what is important in the message.

 

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Immediate Action Warning!

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5/30/2020

Violence & Civil Unrest

On March 13 and again on May 1 I issued Immediate Action Warnings for violence. In the 11 weeks since the initial warning we’ve seen some sporadic violence, but almost all at the individual level. That all changed earlier this week when Minneapolis police officer (Derek Chauvin) killed a man who was begging for his life…and it was all caught on video. A man (George Floyd) who was handcuffed, who was subdued on the ground, who was compliant, who told the police officers he was having difficulty breathing. And then police officer Derek Chauvin placed his knee on the back of George Floyd’s neck with almost his entire weight…until George Floyd was dead. The alleged crime of George Floyd…a clerk in a local convenience store thought that a $20 bill George Floyd used looked “suspicious.”

Now, it is not uncommon for police to use this submission tactic…video and pictures are abundant on the Internet that show police using this tactic. It is not uncommon for people to die in police custody while restrained and compliant. It is not uncommon for people to die in police custody from not being able to breath. It is not uncommon for people to beg for their lives while in police custody and still die. But, what is uncommon in this instance is one very uncommon factor…COVID-19.

No, I am not speaking of any of the people involved having COVID-19. I am talking about the fact that the country has been locked down for two months…and all the fallout from that lock down…namely the stress and tension on a national level. This week it boiled over…and the face of the resulting violence is ugly, extreme, and could grow exponentially worse.

There is also two additional issues associated with the police murder of George Floyd and the resulting  violence…1) the militarized response to the violence, and 2) the targeting of journalists by police officers.

I don’t have to go into details regarding the militarized response…the pictures are all over the Internet of militarized police and army units in the streets of major US cities. But we saw in Minneapolis and in Louisville where credentialed journalists specifically targeted by police officers. In the case in Minneapolis the journalists were arrested (on live TV) based on “orders” the police officers had received from their leadership. In the Atlanta case the journalists were fired upon with crowd control pepper balls from a high powered air guns.

These factors…and more…have caused me to issue this warning.

Warning Specifics –

I am issuing an Immediate Action Warning – Violence & Civil Unrest.

This warning is based on the following:

  • The nature of the confrontations
  • The current high-stress national environment
  • The immediate use of militarized police and military units
  • The violent and destructive nature of the protesting and rioting
  • The widespread, coast-to-coast, outbreak of the protests and riots
  • The specific targeting of journalists by police
  • Gunfire present at the protests, rioting, and looting
  • A developing “us vs them” mentality

To make matters worse, far worse, was the President making the statement of shooting looters. While many may have a personal belief that shooting looters is an appropriate response…especially if you are the owner of the business being looted…it is entirely and completely inappropriate for the President of the United States to make such a statement.

Statements such as that can be seen by law enforcement and the military as having a free hand and simply shoot people vs trying to quell the violence. It can be seen by people in those communities as a complete disregard for their lives. It can be seen by the protesters as a declaration of war. It can be seen by the looters as a provocation to escalate the situation from looting businesses to shooting business owners, law enforcement officers, or military personnel. President Trump’s statement was juvenile at best…extremely provocative and dangerous at worse. Regardless, escalating an already dangerous situation.

Actions to Take –

I won’t repeat myself. To better understand what actions to take please read my Immediate Action Warnings of 3/13 and 5/1:

Note –

I delayed issuing this Immediate Action Warning for good reason.

  1. I wanted to see the facts of the killing by police, including video and bystander statements.
  2. I wanted to see if there would be “sustained” violent protesting and rioting and the level of destruction associated with it.
  3. I wanted to see if the police officers would be charged and the reaction to that event.

Now I see this is an extremely volatile situation with the potential to spread much wider and get much worse. The stress and tension of the COVID-19 lock-down, the historic unemployment, worsening economic situation, etc. are all factors that could drive the escalation of the violence to very, very dangerous levels. I won’t state at this point what that level could be…but I will continue to monitor the situation.

Please don’t disregard this Immediate Action Warning…or take it lightly. Even Rush Limbaugh is calling a “killing” by police officers.

Remember my continual reminding you of one very important and applicable statement of those in power…

“Never let a crisis go to waste.“

They wont.

 

 

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PDF Files: Baofeng Radio Information

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For you Baofeng UV-5 owners and users…here are some great information and user manuals/guides that I created.

The Baofeng radio is a great little radio and RT Systems programming software is the best. But, documentation…easy to read/understand documentation…is hard to come by. These might help.

 

AHTrimble – Baofeng UV-5RA RadioUserGuide – 1.31.2016

AHTrimble – Baofeng UV-5RA Radio QuickStart (New)

AHTrimble Baofeng UV-5RA General Radio Menu Settings

AH Trimble RT Systems Software – UV-5R User Guide (20160515)

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PDF Files: Threats, Risk, Mitigation

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This is the third post in a series where I post a PDF file that you can download and print for reference material.

The PDF file below goes into detail on threats, risks, and how to mitigate them. And do so in a professional, systematic way that is both valid and reliable.

Now, a request from me to you…at the bottom of each page in each file I have included “Courtesy of AHTrimble.com” as a gentle and subtle advertisement for my website. No, not to make money, because I make no money from my website. But, I would like more folks to visit the website…there is a lot of material on the site and I would love to see more folks taking advantage of it. All I ask of you is to not deconstruct the PDF file and remove or obscure the “Courtesy of AHTrimble.com”…thank you.

<click here to download: ThreatsRisksMitigation>

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