note: originally written/posted in 2015

As you know by now I try to do physical training 5+ times per week. I am also blessed with a job that pays me to do that each day. But I am cursed being in an area that at this time of year it is 100+ degrees and humid most days. But today was nice, hot but a stiff breeze blowing. Along the river it is usually a couple degrees cooler when the water is flowing. So I headed to the river for my PT today.

It was absolutely gorgeous along the river there this morning. I was even wearing my new tennis shoes. Hey, if you haven’t read my “Lessons Learned” about my tennis shoes you might want to read about that under Lessons Learned. I did my stretches and headed north along the river enjoying the stiff breeze blowing the bugs and mosquitoes into oblivion.

I have to admit I was a bit in la-la land as I was walking along. But then I got pulled back into reality. Let me share a series of photos with you and then I will talk some more…

OK, what did you see?

I am sure you saw everything I did, but what did it mean to you?

Since you are probably not familiar with this river, especially this part of the river, I doubt you picked up on what all of this meant. But to me it meant I need to keep my Situational Awareness (SA) up all of the time. Let me go into the details and tell you what I saw…

The river corridor here is owned by a government agency. Yeah, go figure. And they maintain this trail for walkers,  bikers, and horseback riders to enjoy the riverside. It has probably been about a year since I walked this river trail. But, I’ve been walking it for probably 7 or 8 years now. And I enjoy it. But this is the first time I ever saw anything like:

• The empty cases of beer.
• The large soda cups.
• Tire tracks and ruts.

But then as I got a little further along the path I saw this…

And what it really was…

Up until this point this area never had anything like this…nothing…ever. And so I decided to turn it into an SA exercise.

The trail is 1-1/2 miles out to the point where I turn around and head back. The three miles with a few sets of pushups along the way takes me about 45 minutes. I got to the end, the half-way point, turned around and headed back. I started to take pictures to make this an SA experience for me and to share it with you.

Why?

Because I want to keep SA in the forefront of our preparedness skills. Similar to what I did with the “tennis shoe” Lessons Learned a while back. So hang in there and see if you can take away something useful from this article.

So here is the scenario that I set up…

It is the third day of grid-down. I got caught at work and was unable to leave due to agency responsibilities. I finally get a chance to leave. I am walking home where my family is waiting for me. I know this trail, it is where I regularly PT. It is a combination of the safest, most direct route home. It is also the only route where I will have water available to me; I have my MSR Sweetwater Filter System to use. I head home about 9:00 in the morning. Here is what I see as I walk along…

First thing, I walk in the middle of the trail to keep the safest distance from each edge of the trail. When a bush is close to the edge of the trail I move to the more clear side of the trail. That allows me a small increase in reaction time due to distance. It also gives me a slightly better view of what, or who, might be trying to ambush me. Then I see…

This trail is “non-motorized” meaning that only walkers, bikers, and horseback riders are allowed. The presence of these tracks is out of the ordinary. The deep ruts is also a red flag. Either a truck accidentally went there, or someone intentionally tried to drive off the road into soft sand. Either way, it is a red flag. Then I see this…

This area has never been trashy, there never has been large soda cups along this trail. They are fresh. They are next to a bush, but not “wind blown.” Why are they there? Where are the two people who put them there? A little further along I see this…

Major red flag!! There is a strictly enforced no-drinking policy in this area, along this trail. Never have I seen an empty beer bottle let alone multiple empty beer cases and the bottles. But not all the bottles are strewn around. The cases are not faded, not rained on, not torn up. All of that points to them being fresh, recently put there. I keep walking, now as I come around the bend I see this…

Now, what does this tell you? To me this is a huge red flag, a true danger signal that absolutely cannot be ignored or dismissed lightly. So what is the deal?

The shopping cart is the first thing I notice. That indicates that someone, or a group, pushed the cart here with a “load” of something. Maybe food, water, and such. Or maybe cases of beer. But it was enough of a load that they didn’t want to carry it and had enough guts to steal a shopping cart to get their goodies here. But I have to keep moving, but I slow way down now, full of caution. Then the rest of it comes into view…

What do you see given the scenario I painted at the beginning of this exercise?

More directly, and more importantly, what don’t you see that could well be fatal?

Let me digress for just a minute. At no time ever has camping been allowed in this area. The cops would never, and have never, tolerated people camping int his recreational use area. It is strictly for “day use” only. Although we have a large homeless population in the area, the cops simply won’t have this within a recreational area.

So, obviously you see the camp. How many folks is this camp set up for at first glance? But have you identified the real issue yet? That issue that could be the fatal issue.

Let me give you a clue by asking a question…”Where are the campers, the people?”

Yeah, you don’t see them right? Why don’t you see them?

Let’s explore the options:

• They left and moved on to another camping location.
• They went to town for food.
• They went for a swim in the river.
• They went scrounging for edible plants along the river bank.
• They have been arrested and taken away.
• They have been killed and their bodies are in the bushes.
• They are alive and in the bushes waiting for their next victim, their next prey, to come along.

I am sure there are more options you could come up with but I think the options I laid out got you thinking. Which are the most dangerous to me right at the moment I spot their camp?

I will propose that all of them are dangerous to me, but the last two particularly so. Why?

The first five all do with them simply being away from their camp for some period of time. But what if they are returning to their camp at the same time I come walking by? Do they see me as simply walking by or do they see me as approaching their camp to steal their gear?

How will they will view my uninvited presence? But they are likely to see my presence with some degree of defensiveness in my opinion. So, what would be their normal reaction in that case?

And do you honestly think they would all leave their camp and not leave someone behind for security purposes?

Now, let’s look at the last two options I listed. If there a difference in the degree of danger to me?

I don’t think there is a difference, either is a significant danger to me. If they have been killed by a person or persons then what is to say that I am not the next to meet the same fate?

I didn’t smell any dead bodies so I honestly think this was not the case. So that pretty much would leave the last option as a very probable option. And in my opinion, the most potentially deadly.

What would you do at this point? But before you do, remember the scenario I painted for you, think in terms of reality for the situation.

I would slowly drop into a slight crouch to lower my profile, do a quick 360 to clear my immediate area, and then slowly move to the closest cover in the opposite direction (or at least 90degrees) of the camp. Then I would develop the best 360 view I could and then settle in with patience.

I want to observe the camp area and the approaches for 30 – 60 minutes minimum. If I honestly think there could be an ambush waiting for me then I would observe and then withdraw. I would have no desire whatsoever to try a counter-ambush or any other kind of engagement. My mission is to get home…period.

If I don’t see anyone for 30 – 60 minutes then I slowly and carefully continue on my way but not using the trail for my travels.

If I did see someone I would slowly withdraw and carefully continue on my way but not using the trail for my travels.

Notice my actions are the same whether I observe someone or not. At this point I have no desire to interact with anyone. The more interactions with people that take place in a scenario like this, the more likely you are to encounter trouble, problems, or worse.

Leave people alone…get home.

I mentioned not using the trail for movement in describing what my actions would be. Why?

Well, if you were desperate, of low moral character, and had no issues taking people’s gear, equipment, food and water, where would you do that?

Where people are, right? And where would people be besides their homes, where they would be vulnerable? Yup, walking along a remote trail. So where would I walk?

I would walk 100’ or so off the trail, among decent brush parallel to the trail. That distance would be enough to put you to the rear of ambushers if there were any. Most people wouldn’t expect to see you walking that far off the trail when walking on the trail is the easiest. You do the unexpected.

So what to do if you aren’t that paranoid cautious yet? Try these ideas:

• Walk in the middle of the trail creating distance between you and the sides of the trail giving you slightly more reaction time.
• If there is brush close to the edge of the trail on one side, as you approach move to the opposite side of the trail keeping your eyes open for threats on both side.
• If the bush crowds in on both sides of the trail, stop. Act distracted such as tying your shoe, adjusting your hat, looking at your watch. While you are engaged in the act of deception observe the entire area for threats. Any sign of threat take slow, careful and well thought out evasive actions.
• Alternative to the above, stop and take a break next to some concealment like a bush or tree. Now, observe the area for 15 – 60 minutes for any threat indicators. Take appropriate action based on observations.
• Additional alternative, without breaking stride make an immediate hard turn off the trail. Take evasive action based on your perception of the threat. But don’t continue near the trail. If you are going to continue moving forward, do so outside of the 100’ margin of the trail.

A couple things to be very cautious of:

1. Don’t engage someone trying to talk with you. In the scenario outlined above they will try to bluff you into something, gaining time to relocate their ambush against you or social engineer you into something. Either way you go with this, they are a threat. If they weren’t, they wouldn’t have been hiding from you.
2. If they claim to be police and shout for you to stop you have a tough choice to make. First question, how do you know they are really police? Second, even if they are police, can you afford to be stopped and probably detained by police? Remember, you are armed. They police probably won’t like that too much and they will see you as the threat, especially since you just thwarted their ambush. Me? I would escape and evade at all costs.
3. Any encounter or engagement of any kind with anyone is a threat to your freedom of movement and possibly your life. Simply move on…your goal is to get home to your family.

I hope that you have gotten something out of this Lessons Learned article. I am not trying to turn anyone into a special operations ninja or anything like that. I am not qualified to train folks in those skills. But what I am trying to do is share thoughts and scenarios with you that might help you think through a situation ahead of time. That is called planning and training.

Enjoy your day!! And go take a walk down by the river.

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without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com
See Content Use Policy for more information.

note: originally written/posted in 2015

As I have already mentioned in a number of articles, especially the boot review articles, I have feet that are pretty beat up. That being the case, shoes and boots that actually fit me correctly and are comfortable are virtually impossible to find. When I do find a pair that fit me I stick with that brand and model, sometimes buying multiple pairs to last me into the future. Well, this year Normalcy Bias struck…along with a little Competency Bias. And it all has to do with a size 12 pair of tennis shoes. Let me explain…

First, let’s review what Normalcy Bias is the refusal of your brain to accept that something has happened, will happen, or to what extent something has happened.

Now let’s tie those two bias’ into my size 12 tennis shoes…no pun intended. OK, so you know it is hard for me to buy decent boots and shoes due to years of abuse of my feet as a structural and wildland firefighter. Fortunately a couple of years ago I found a brand of tennis shoes that really fit my feet very well. They last about 18 months before they have to be replaced. Late last year I was seeing that my latest pair was needing replaced soon, luckily I found some for sale online. I bought three pairs to make it easier in the future, plus I had a little extra money sitting around. No, I can’t buy them in any store anymore because they aren’t carried in any store anywhere that I can find.

So my old pair finally give it up and I get out a new pair. Problem!!

The new pair seem to be too tight and really kind of crushed my foot. So I wore them a day thinking that it was a fluke or something. It wasn’t. I got the other two pairs out, all the same size, all the same fit. I wasn’t thrilled but I knew that they were the right size since they were the same exact size as the old pair’s size. The label told me so.

At that point I figured I would keep wearing them and they would stretch out and fit as good as the old pair. Well, they didn’t and seven months later my feet are still sore after my physical training that I try to do 5 – 6 times a week for at least an hour each day.

Well, I bought a pair of Lowa Tibet GTX boots and I did a review on them. I am also still in the process of breaking them in. One night after hiking about an hour in the arroyo behind my house that stretches into the desert I was taking those boots off and switching to my size 12 tennis shoes. My feet hurt in that same places in my “broken-in” tennis shoes. Ooooppppssssss……something wrong here! And my toes were way further into the tennis shoes than my boots.

Changes had to take place…my feet were killing me.

I went into my home office, got online, looked up the tennis shoes in size 13, found several pairs, and ordered a pair in my favorite color combination. Yup, couple different shades of khaki. Two days later the shoes were on my door step, I was smiling and my wife thought I was a little more weird than normal. Shorten the story…the shoes fit really, really well.

So why the heck is that little experience worthy of an article?

Oh, come on…you can’t figure it out yet?

I wear a size 12 shoe, albeit extra wide, and these tennis shoes in size 12W had always fit in the past, so the current size 12W should fit. And If they are tight, I should just get over it and wait for them to stretch out to the right size/fit. Right?  Why?

However, seven months later the new size 12W tennis shoes still weren’t fitting right/comfortable and that is after well over 150 hours of “breaking in.” You would think the thought would have crossed my mind that something was just a bit wrong. Yeah, well it should have. But I was suffering from Normalcy Bias.

Me?!?! Yeah, me. I am supposed to know what I am talking about when it comes to preparedness. I am supposed to be that guy that has answers and can help other people avoid those things that will get them hurt or killed. Yet, I failed and I failed on one of the most basic tenants of preparedness…Normalcy Bias.

Yup, I got tunnel vision:

1. This is the size shoe I always wear, so this pair of shoes it the right size.
2. All shoes take breaking in, so these shoes will fit when they are broken in.
3. You have bad feet, your feet are supposed to hurt.
4. You have more important things to think about.

And we know what tunnel vision can do…it can get you killed.

Now the real question is what do I do about this problem. And for me there is only one real answer. Well, two actually.

First, I have to write to you about it and explain how easy Normalcy Bias can creep into your life. Even something so simple as the correct size and fit of tennis shoes. If it isn’t right…figure it out and make it right. If it doesn’t work, it isn’t going to magically start working.

Second, I have to take a deep breath and look over the rest of what is going on in my life right now. And ask the question…What else am I missing? I am working on that one right now.

Why the reevaluation of life?

Think about that for a minute. If you have been reading my website articles for any length of time you have a pretty good feel for the type of person I am. What do you think I could be missing?

See, here is the problem…I am in a position of not knowing what I don’t know.

So I have to step back, collect myself and rapidly assess if there are the other areas that I might be off course. That is making “lemonade out of lemons” as a famous fellow once told me.

Does any of this have anything to do with you? Maybe, maybe not.

This is a glaring example of Normalcy Bias that I got struck with. What I am hoping is that you learned something through this…it can happen to anyone.

Now, my question to you…”Are you suffering from Normalcy Bias in some way, in some area of your prepping life?”

Please take a few minutes in the coming day or two and just think through what is happening in your life and consider if you might have some amount of Normalcy Bias going on. And if you do…work at overcoming it.

2009 - 2019 Copyright © AHTrimble.com ~ All rights reserved
No reproduction or other use of this content 
without expressed written permission from AHTrimble.com
See Content Use Policy for more information.

note: originally written/posted in 2015

Last Sunday morning I was enjoying just a lazy Sunday morning waiting for my wife to return home. I had been cleaning up the kitchen and vacuuming. I hate my wife coming back home from being out of town and her walking into a messy house.

I had been a bachelor for the previous 4 days while my wife traveled back to her childhood home to celebrate her parent’s 70^th wedding anniversary with the entire family. I was looking forward to her being back, I have a great wife!

Then the cell phone rang and it is a Peace Officer buddy of mine from church. He works closely with me on security matters for 13 congregations in a 3-county area. He didn’t have good news.

He explained to me that there had been two separate bombings at two separate churches within minutes of each other. He explained damage had occurred but was unaware of any casualties. We coordinated a response, he would head to the scene to feed us information and I would start clearing our two separate church buildings in our town. Eight different congregations share the two buildings, four congregations for each building.

I quickly cleaned up, dressed in Sunday attire and headed out the door. My day ended about 10 hours later. Let me share a few things that I think are important, what I learned, or at least had reinforced to me that day.

1. There is always a lack of, or confusing, information. Even though I had a contact at the scene of one of the bombings, and he is a supervisor, he still had a hard time sorting out the good and bad information. There were widely varying stories about what had happened. It swung from firecrackers in a mailbox to pipe bombs at the doors. The reports said no one was present, when in actuality there were people in both churches having services. Communications is, and always will be, the #1 problem in any emergency or disaster situation. If you don’t make some preparations on how to deal with that, then you will be behind the curve from the very beginning and probably won’t be able to recover from it.
2. No known motivation. Early on there was no actual motivation of why it was done or even who might have done it. There still isn’t. Without having some kind of idea of who or why, it is much harder to get a true feel for what is happening and how to properly respond. We had to make assumptions as to what the motivation might be but we couldn’t even guess as to whom. Since no one was hurt, and the devices didn’t explode where people were at the moment, then we felt it was more a statement event. We were wrong from the very beginning.
3. The police utterly failed to notify other churches or provide protection to any other potential targets. Like moths to a flame all law enforcement converged on the crime scene en masse. That left the entire city, even the whole county, with virtually no police protection at all. The police called one other church, quickly told them what had happened and asked them to call the other churches in town. We have 100+ churches in town, how do you think that worked out? Most churches were never contacted. There was absolutely no “protect & serve” that morning, all the police were at the two scenes vs. providing protection for citizens.

Had this been a diversionary tactic for anything else, the police would have been 100% screwed. The police acted unprofessionally; poorly trained, poorly prepared, poor response…poor everything. That once again reinforces that you shouldn’t count on effective law enforcement response when there is a true emergency or disaster.

Here are the specific lessons I learned last Sunday…

1. While we, our church’s limited security group responded well to our 8-congregation area of responsibility in this specific town. But we were understaffed from the very beginning. We simply didn’t have enough people to adequately respond to two separate buildings to quickly clear them, and declare them safe or evacuate them. We were also understaffed to provide security during services throughout the rest of the day.
2. While our leadership of the 13-congregation area was notified quickly, there was no clear direction given as to what each congregations should do. For example; should they evacuate the buildings? Should they continue with services that day? Who should each congregation contact for information and direction?
3. While we have a significant Emergency Preparedness Plan for the congregations in the area, it doesn’t cover “bombings” or “bomb threats” etc. Almost three years ago we discussed needing a specific security plan, it was never acted on. It should have been, it would have covered this situation.
4. I am supposed to be the person that advises the 13-congregation leader and remain by his side as a subject matter expert during emergencies and disasters. However, due to us being undermanned and not calling in other folks to assist, I was out in the field and not where I needed to be. A lot of this was driven by not having a full sense of what was happening, but having a sense of urgency to react to protect church goers. However, had the problem grown, we would not have had key people in-place as per the plan.
5. I personally dehydrated that day. I began my response a little after 0900 that day. I didn’t drink my first water till almost noon. By then I was behind the hydration curve. I drank periodically from building drinking fountains as I could, but it was not enough. I should have carried water with me and maintained my water intake to the appropriate level. I could have stopped at a convenience store to buy a bottle of water. I got tunnel vision and was too task focused.
6. There was no sense of panic among our responders. We accepted the situation for what is was and went about our business of responding. I would imagine if you had asked most church members that day, they weren’t even aware of what we were doing.
7. The primary response players for our church stayed in good contact. We used texting mostly to reduce time on the phone. However, we did have phone conversations when appropriate information needed to be shared. Had the phones gone down we would have been screwed. Our handheld Ham radio cache was back at my house.
8. As I was leaving the house I took a extra couple of minutes to load a second spare pistol magazine. I usually only carry one spare magazine thinking 19 shots should be plenty in 99%+ encounters as a conceal carry person. However, this was a special case. The extra 9-rounds in the second spare magazine made me feel a little more secure.
9. As I was walking out the door I also stopped to ensure that my handheld tactical light was working and the batteries were fresh. The light can fit comfortably in my pants pocket. I don’t see a need for some 4-cell D-size battery flashlight. A small, easy to use, comfortable to carry, tactical light is what I prefer.
10. And as my hand hit the doorknob I had a flash of brilliance…I would be looking over church grounds, walking through church buildings, armed…ah, what is wrong with that picture? Any cop who might see me would think and/or do what? Yeah, can you see a problem there? So I grabbed my “Security Enforcement Officer” badge. Looks like most police department shields. It just might give me that extra second or two to let a cop know that I am not the bad guy. It is a great investment at under $30 for the badge and holder.
11. There are no criteria provided to our congregations for “must evacuate” and “may evacuate” events. There is zero guidelines for those kinds of events. That is unacceptable. How would leaders have any clue on how to proceed in this situation or one like it.

Lot’s of stuff going on in this kind of a situation, I am sure I will come up with more as time goes on. But never, ever, in my wildest imagination would I have guessed that I would live in a time and place where you had bombs going off at churches. But here we are…we are in those times.

While one of the church leaders and I were talking towards the end of the day, we were lamenting the same thing…church bombings and crazy times. His response, “We’re in the last days brother.”

Indeed we are.

So here is my partial “to-do” list out of all of this:

1. Update the Emergency Communications Plan to include the ability to text message each congregation leader as a group.
2. Update the Emergency Preparedness Plan with guidelines on “evacuation” decisions.
3. Update the Emergency Preparedness Plan to include more direct violence threats such as bombings and active shooter.
4. Follow through on creating a Security Plan.
5. Work on how to identify more folks to act as security when needed.

There are a few more items but those are confidential.

I do have a few questions for you:

• What would you do in a real-life “church bombing” scenario?

• What would you have your family do?

• What would expect your church to do?

• How could you help in such a situation?

Let’s all commit to learn from what has happened and may we be better prepared for a situation like this in the future. For it is the future…Welcome to the last days brother!

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No reproduction or other use of this content 
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See Content Use Policy for more information.